Are we entering a period of "goods" shortages?
- Thread starter GON
- Start date
The electrical stuff has been sold out locally since January. A lot of random stuff is having shortages. For a while it was bologna, then beef.
Maybe, but you also need to factor in space cost. I got rid of a lot of stuff this pandemic because kids grew up and need space to do school from home. I no longer buy things ahead of time just in case it may go up in price a little. What is another $5 saving when per sqft it cost me $1200 in real estate (and the property tax and mortgage)?
From what I heard, there are "banks" that provide the loans with "swaps" and "insurances" if the customers and vendors are large and credit worthy. Greensill? Oh yeah I think they collapsed.
Oh we don't hoard (much). We used to only keep just enough on hand, like one spare. We'd buy the mega thing of TP and once opened we'd buy another one. Only one "in stock" in the basement at any time. However: it's becoming somewhat wise to stock 2 spares now... That's not 20 let alone whatever some of the hoarders were putting up!
I actually have space to stock things, but I have no ambition to do so. If it makes sense I do, like it's on sale and I'll need it in six months.
maybe commercial as they are flush with bailout money but new homes being built is down 43% compared to the last boom
Even building permits are down
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortun...-housing-bubble-covid-real-estate-prices/amp/
That's the "new,new,new" normal.
All that lumber might be going to home renovations instead of new construction. Lots of people stuck at home doing new projects on the house.
Some stuff might be easing though, there was a real shortage of appliances a while back. Couldn't get anything cheap, only the expensive ones were left. Just looked a while ago and the cheap stuff is back in stock although my $500 refrigerators are now more like $600 and they're also supposedly on sale.
It is very location specific.
Around here all the single story commercial places are torn down and in my hood there's a mid rise residential building in progress every single block, or old single story location fenced up ready to be torn down. The only exception is a ToysRus and an OSH, looking for retail box store tenants. I have a feeling the OSH would be torn down and turn into apartment complex if zoning allowed as it is between 2 apartment complex anyways.
They seem to do that everywhere and it's probably a normal course of business for them. All the stand alone McDonalds and other fast food places are like that too, they tear it down and rebuild it in a few months. I'm thinking maybe it's for tax purposes. You depreciate the building and once you tear it down, no depreciation recapture and then you can start depreciating again on the new building. But that's just a theory, not really sure how that works. Maybe the cost of renovations and new layouts just mean it's more cost efficient to tear the place down.
Dumping trillions into the $ supply is like a 300lb guy Cannoballing into into an inflatable kids pool ...theres bound to be some waves. 
Ever been to a brand new Lowes?
Bins will have plenty of the right things - a joy.
Accounting/inventory theory calls for non-staff to count.
(I did it some as a kid - bras at K-Mart.)
Anyway, if there are 17 of something, even 17 different things, that bin is DONE!
Marked as complete, no need to order more, they obviously do not sell
Since the staff stands around and talks, it will never get better.
Those will be there until we stop going....
Bins will have plenty of the right things - a joy.
Accounting/inventory theory calls for non-staff to count.
(I did it some as a kid - bras at K-Mart.)
Anyway, if there are 17 of something, even 17 different things, that bin is DONE!
Marked as complete, no need to order more, they obviously do not sell
Since the staff stands around and talks, it will never get better.
Those will be there until we stop going....
Only thing i've noticed is the Chevy dealers bare lots, hardly any new cars or trucks.
Not just Chevy dealers. Local Ford dealer usually has around 50 new F-150's. They have 6 on the lot.
Depreciation is from what I understand, deducted from your purchase price, then when you sell it you have to turn it into lowered cost and you pay it back as long term capital gain, still a bargain.
The tearing down so you can depreciate again doesn't make sense. You tear down a building you deduct all the unused structure cost right away, but you still need to pay to build it back up. The only way it help is after you tear down you can do a reappraisal so your property tax is lowered while you wait for a new tenant. The main gain to tear it down early is you don't need as much insurance or maintenance, and lower property tax, and you know for sure you won't find another tenant with the same building anyways.
They probably figure new building has better return because more people do drive through, and fewer people want to sit down, and playground never pays back and is a big liability insurance cost.
As manufacturer of electronic goods OH yeah - the likes of which you probably haven't seen.
There are many reasons for this.
Just in time inventory vs stocking practices is the big one combined with shortages caused by last years excessive reduction in inventory investment.
The whole global distribution "flywheel" stopped cold last year - getting it running again will take time.
There are many reasons for this.
Just in time inventory vs stocking practices is the big one combined with shortages caused by last years excessive reduction in inventory investment.
The whole global distribution "flywheel" stopped cold last year - getting it running again will take time.
There are always alternatives, and in a free market, when there is a shortfall in supply, someone will step up.
In the meantime, yep, inflation will rear its head. That'll be fun for the folks in power because it will be the first time in decades that it has been an issue. Some of us around here are old enough to remember when it was double-digit back in the late 70's. That turned the political landscape on its head. They'll try and quell the masses by saying it is the new normal, but people will only believe that for so long.
In the meantime, yep, inflation will rear its head. That'll be fun for the folks in power because it will be the first time in decades that it has been an issue. Some of us around here are old enough to remember when it was double-digit back in the late 70's. That turned the political landscape on its head. They'll try and quell the masses by saying it is the new normal, but people will only believe that for so long.
GON
$150 Site Donor 2025
Astro, guess I was oblivious to shortages of "goods" being across the board.
I erroneously thought supply shortages were for new big ticket items, staples, and consumables. I thought things like electrical connectors which are a very high markup, low volume mover for retail stores would not be effected by supply chain issues on a macro level. I see I am wrong.
The backlog at Long Beach is starting to ease. They think it will go down by the 3rd quarter. The peak was in February.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ship-l...-easing-after-march-import-deluge-11618432150
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ship-l...-easing-after-march-import-deluge-11618432150
