Are we entering a period of "goods" shortages?

[JeffKeryk]

I remember reading somewhere that some of the equipment companies now make more money refurbing and servicing equipment than selling new ones. I also heard that a DUV stepper is 20M and the latest fab for those processes are about $20B total.

I think without being political, most industries want to have at least 3 suppliers (up to 5) for most critical parts for stability and pricing reasons, then they also want at least 2-3 continents sourced parts for disaster recovery reasons (i.e. Fukushima, Thailand flooding).

Refurbs are big business, but are generally for older generation chips. Remember, the semi tools (especially deposition) are geometry specific. Refurbs are big business, especially as chips are used in more and more products. Refurbs can be simply resold or perhaps get new process modules for the specific integrated circuit design.

There are US fabs in Oregon and Arizona as well. But the vast majority are foundries like TSMC and UMC. A foundry is a fab that builds the chips based on another company's design. Samsung makes their own chips as well as other company's designs.
AMC was perhaps the 1st chip company that fabbed their own chips and used foundries as well.

I suggest people look at the stock charts for Lam Research, Applied Materials and KLA-Tencor. These companies make more the 50% of the wafer fab tools. Dep, Etch, Clean and Metrology. Business is booming!
Of course the big bucks is in lithography (ASML, Nikon).

 

[ArPix]

We must be, because a lot of stuff on WalMart's and Lowes' shelves is wiped out. I'm relying more and more on Amazon, which is fine for most things. But here's one thing I won't be ordering from Amazon. Unfortunately, most of my local Walmarts are out.


View attachment 54929

I purchased this at Amazon on March 2, 2021 for $9.74.

 

[bdcardinal]

Are your customers upset?

Would you be? I try to call other dealers that show the parts on hand but I can only dedicate so much time to that before I have to move on to going back to the counter. Sometimes I hit a home run and can get the part, most of the time I strike out.

 

[wpod]

Would you be? I try to call other dealers that show the parts on hand but I can only dedicate so much time to that before I have to move on to going back to the counter. Sometimes I hit a home run and can get the part, most of the time I strike out.

I would be upset but then I am always upset. I should have asked do the customers understand?

 

[wpod]

At least in semiconductors, the supply chain was disrupted by chip buyers (auto makers for example) forecasting a big slowdown last year.
In many cases their forecast was wrong, but their JIT materials orders were already in place causing slow down and disruption.
Cars use complex chips for things like AP and older, less complex chips for other components.
So both are in shortage now.
It will take time and even new foundries to supply the pent up and new demand.
There is good talk of new fabs in America, reversing the 25 year offshore trend.

I remember in the 1970s from San Mateo to Sunnyvale which was the service area of our branch , there were lots of companies making all sorts of computer "stuff" And in the southern part on the east bay which I rarely went to there were many there as well. Then off shoring took off and Adios local industry.

 

[Job]

Generally consumption and availability of goods has been extremely high. So maybe this is like 1987 or something. I know my grandparents had so few things and it was a major decision to buy anything. The choices were at the local dept. store or hardware store. If you finally decided to get a new toaster maybe the store had one kind and that’s what you bought at the price that rings up on the register. They had one radio a white one in the kitchen. Maybe just maybe we are a little spoiled?

 

[GON]

Just bought my Wife a purse for her birthday (60 percent off outrageous list and additional 10 percent discount).

Had no idea Myanmar produced goods for western consumers.

 

[bdcardinal]

I would be upset but then I am always upset. I should have asked do the customers understand?

Some do, some don't. Body shops seem to act personally offended when there are unobtainium parts. Some manufacturers, Ford included, has taken the opportunity to make some parts obsolete and use this as the excuse. I've lost thousands of dollars in sales because of parts availability. It gets to the point that I will print out the locator showing who shows a part and give it to the customer and see if they want to try their luck.

 

[Trav]

I believe at least some of this is due to hoarding, and media hysteria which causes panic buying even when things are not at all in short supply, that includes toilet paper, ect...also believe that many companies are using the COVID business environment to take advantage even though they may have no shortages at all they are acting as if they have inventory shortages to raise prices. I think it is a very common thing today...
I say if you don't need it now, wait until next year.

I still don't get the toilet paper panic. Don't worry about cream and coffee, food in genral just make sure you grab 2x 18 packs of TP.

 

[jhs914]

but new homes being built is down 43% compared to the last boom

Even building permits are down

Not where I live. You can't turn a corner without seeing a new subdivision going up.

 

[jhs914]

Depreciation is from what I understand, deducted from your purchase price,

There are different depreciation rules for different businesses and assets, but the general rule is that an asset has a stated life expectancy and it is depreciated on a percentage basis each year until it reaches zero. The depreciation is deducted from the gross income each year as a cost of doing business, thus reducing your income tax liability.

 

[Snowflake White]

Not where I live. You can't turn a corner without seeing a new subdivision going up.

I always wonder if that is drug cartels trying to launder their money..heck think about it. That money can go to buying all the supplies, paying the labor (much of which is illegal aliens) then at least here I know that in some developments those moving in are part of the drug gang, they move in the mortgages are paid for by fake jobs (money direct deposited into the "home occupiers" account looks like a legit job.....as well as utilities paid all from drug money being laundered.

 

[jhs914]

I always wonder if that is drug cartels trying to launder their money..heck think about it. That money can go to buying all the supplies, paying the labor (much of which is illegal aliens) then at least here I know that in some developments those moving in are part of the drug gang, they move in the mortgages are paid for by fake jobs (money direct deposited into the "home occupiers" account looks like a legit job.....as well as utilities paid all from drug money being laundered.

Not around here, unless the drug cartels have taken over D.W. Horton!

 

[Snowflake White]

Not around here, unless the drug cartels have taken over D.W. Horton!

Well it's impossible to know, most people have a price. I know for a fact that where I am at at least one smaller builder is VERY likely a front for some drug cartel/gang/ect....If you know what to look for they do give themselves away.

 

[GON]

In 1999 just after Christmas the wife, children, and I stayed at a top (at the time) oceanfront resort outside of Cancun. Marble and granite bathrooms (which was pricey at the time), just everything top shelf. Food was all inclusive, lavish spread of high end dishes. Booze was name brand.

I could not comprehend how they could offer this much high end for such a reasonable price. I was told they were not overly interested in profit margins........ the resort(s) were shell companies for the drug/ criminal cartels.

 

[walterjay]

Right now some water heaters are unobtainable. My electrician told me he cannot get certain items due to a problem with plastics. Also was told that wood furniture is going up about 15% due to wood shortage. Just ordered a new bedroom set to head that off rather than waiting. Lead time on the furniture is 20 weeks.

 

[Rmay635703]

Also was told that wood furniture is going up about 15% due to wood shortage. Just ordered a new bedroom set to head that off rather than waiting. Lead time on the furniture is 20 weeks.

While there is a wood shortage Wisconsin has clear cut 1000sq miles of timber from along every roadway edge.

They are using $1m forestry machines to grind everything within 100-300ft of all roadways (even are doing it along hiking trails) into sawdust

If it wasn’t the idiotic state blowing COVID money they could throw all this stuff into the pulp mills and could have solved the shortage overnight.

last year this was thick scrub and forest, the county cut all 9 miles this way continuing along the full length of the paved roads leading up to this.

 

[PimTac]

Not where I live. You can't turn a corner without seeing a new subdivision going up.

Same here in the Seattle metro. They are building as fast as they can and it’s mostly apartments and zero lot townhouses in the city.

 

[Greasymechtech]

And then I looked on the shelf.... and there was no oil or filters to be seen at all.....

 

[Snowflake White]

In 1999 just after Christmas the wife, children, and I stayed at a top (at the time) oceanfront resort outside of Cancun. Marble and granite bathrooms (which was pricey at the time), just everything top shelf. Food was all inclusive, lavish spread of high end dishes. Booze was name brand.

I could not comprehend how they could offer this much high end for such a reasonable price. I was told they were not overly interested in profit margins........ the resort(s) were shell companies for the drug/ criminal cartels.

Exactly. I can tell from the way this local "contractor" is actually doing the builds that it isn't about making money from building and selling homes, so what is it? Yep probably laundering drug money and from other related (human trafficking?) activities.