Another article showing concern in the housing market- yet the author may have lacked critical thinking

[SC Maintenance]

Roman empire is a noteworthy example that one can only kick the can for so long.

Can't last forever. But they will kick the can as long as they can. And when they cannot they will simply devalue the currency. There is no going back. Its not just us either. Global debt is $350T. Global GDP is $100T. It can never be repaid.

No use in dwelling on it. Hedge accordingly however.

 

[Dave Hess]

Everything is sunshine and roses until the house of cards comes crashing down.

Lots of manipulation to keep things propped up….

 

[alarmguy]

Just a note
This thread was started 2.5 years ago and we are still discussing the housing crash that didn’t happen.
Also note interest rates up as much as 100% and the market still humming along. Good news is MAYBE a slow down will be coming for all the people who say there aren’t enough homes on the market.

Granted, I live in an alternate universe here with the highest housing growth rate in the country (#2)
… and I spent 40 years of my life in Nassau County shown in @zzyzzx post which prices are still increasing at an insane rate and roughly 30% more buyers than sellers at the bottom of his list.

https://bobistheoilguy.com/forums/t...-lacked-critical-thinking.361093/post-7260357

 

[billt460]

Just a note
This thread was started 2.5 years ago and we are still discussing the housing crash that didn’t happen.
Also note interest rates up as much as 100% and the market still humming along.........

Exactly. In most financial markets, including housing, the predictions of severe gloom and doom seldom transpire. Look at California. I've been saying that state is due for a big housing crash since the late 90's.

Yet in spite of all the current issues they're dealing with out there, housing is still selling in spite of jobs, companies, and people leaving in droves. Will it happen this time? I wouldn't want to bet on it. At best, selling may slow a bit with little, or marginal drop in prices.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Exactly. In most financial markets, including housing, the predictions of severe gloom and doom seldom transpire. Look at California. I've been saying that state is due for a big housing crash since the late 90's.

Yet in spite of all the current issues they're dealing with out there, housing is still selling in spite of jobs, companies, and people leaving in droves. Will it happen this time? I wouldn't want to bet on it. At best, selling may slow a bit with little, or marginal drop in prices.

CA is a big, diverse state. People are leaving some areas and moving in in others.
The housing market is a function of demand vs supply, like many things.
You are right about the housing predictions, especially here in Silicon Valley. In '70 my Dad said if his house ever appreciated to $100K he would take the money and run.

Here's the house today. Thanks to the Apple Spaceship...
I paid $235K for our home in 1995; it needed everything. Let's just say it's done pretty well... Who knew? If anyone could have predicted this they would have bought the whole block.

 

[gmt800lover]

Exactly. In most financial markets, including housing, the predictions of severe gloom and doom seldom transpire. Look at California. I've been saying that state is due for a big housing crash since the late 90's.

Yet in spite of all the current issues they're dealing with out there, housing is still selling in spite of jobs, companies, and people leaving in droves. Will it happen this time? I wouldn't want to bet on it. At best, selling may slow a bit with little, or marginal drop in prices.

Here's the estimated population of California over the last 5 years, based on available data from various sources (primarily Macrotrends and U.S. Census Bureau estimates):

* **2024:** Approximately 39,431,263
* **2023:** Approximately 39,198,693
* **2022:** Approximately 39,142,414
* **2021:** Approximately 39,142,565
* **2020:** Approximately 39,521,958 (or 39,538,223 per 2020 Census)

**Key Observations:**

* California experienced a period of slight population decline between 2020 and 2022.
* However, recent data indicates that the population has begun to increase again in 2023 and 2024, ending the trend of decline.
* The figures for 2024 and 2025 (as of January 1st, 2025) are estimates and may be subject to revision as more complete data becomes available.

 

[OilUzer]

Economy has been in a recession since September 2001. The recession has been masked by borrowing money from Chinese peasants and the like, unnecessary government jobs, and unnecessary government spending.

The bond market is warning the U.S. the act of masking a two decades old recession by borrowing from Chinese peasants and like may be at the end of its ability to continue.

So the question to ask is, what next? What can the U.S. do to pay its debts, eliminate its deficits, and reverse its catastrophic trade deficits.

I assume you picked 2001 since it was the last year of budget surplus and as a result, economy has been in recession since then!

If that's the case, the economy has been in recession forever and long before 2001.

You have come up with a new definition of recession!

 

[JeffKeryk]

As others have posted, the term recession seems to fit numerous definitions.
I tend to use the indicators, such as housing, employment, etc as the state of the economy. The economy appears to be slowing and the cost of products is going in a precarious direction. The supply chain is being stressed; direction is uncertain.

 

[billt460]

The current housing market doesn't scare me. Neither does the current price of new vehicles or groceries. Or the price of anything else for that matter. Our national debt, on the other hand, scares the hell out of me.

Most people have no idea how much $36 TRILLION dollars is. We talk numbers in terms that rhyme. Million, billion, and trillion. it makes it that much more difficult to determine the vast difference in increase of those numbers.

It took 192 years, from 1789 to 1981, to accumulate the first one trillion dollars of national debt. And only the next 44 years to build it to a staggering 36 TRILLION. Which is where we are today.

If we stacked $100 bills one on top of another, until we attained $36 trillion dollars, the stack would be 24,431.8 MILES tall. If you want to use smaller denominations, $36 trillion in $1 bills would weigh 39.7 MILLION TONS. By comparison, the Hoover Dam weighs about 6.7 million tons.

And remember, the government produces nothing. Therefore they can't "give" anything to anyone, without first taking it away from someone else..... Or else print it.

This kind of current debt is both inconceivable and unsustainable. This regardless of who, "pays their fair share". Yet it's real. Very real. And people just want the government to keep right on spending. And don't cut anything. This is all going to end in one big horrible nightmare. It's only a matter of time.

If I'm lucky, I won't live long enough to see it. But there are billions of people who will. And about the only thing I said that might be wrong, is that the current debt is now $37 TRILLION.

 

[SC Maintenance]

the cost of products is going in a precarious direction

Up or down?

 

[PandaBear]

The answer to this is not liked by the general public.

5 min version:


Full version:

 

[PandaBear]

Can't last forever. But they will kick the can as long as they can. And when they cannot they will simply devalue the currency. There is no going back. Its not just us either. Global debt is $350T. Global GDP is $100T. It can never be repaid.

No use in dwelling on it. Hedge accordingly however.

Currency is fiat today, it is no longer a debt that will be paid back in gold like the old days. So in theory if GDP keep growing it will inflate away.

 

[alarmguy]

Here's the estimated population of California over the last 5 years, based on available data from various sources (primarily Macrotrends and U.S. Census Bureau estimates):

* **2024:** Approximately 39,431,263
* **2023:** Approximately 39,198,693
* **2022:** Approximately 39,142,414
* **2021:** Approximately 39,142,565
* **2020:** Approximately 39,521,958 (or 39,538,223 per 2020 Census)

**Key Observations:**

* California experienced a period of slight population decline between 2020 and 2022.
* However, recent data indicates that the population has begun to increase again in 2023 and 2024, ending the trend of decline.
* The figures for 2024 and 2025 (as of January 1st, 2025) are estimates and may be subject to revision as more complete data becomes available.

The decline is real however. One must keep in mind the growing population while CA was stagnant. (has not changed in 5 years)
Since 2020 the USA population has increased by 58 million people.

 

[GON]

I assume you picked 2001 since it was the last year of budget surplus and as a result, economy has been in recession since then!

If that's the case, the economy has been in recession forever and long before 2001.

You have come up with a new definition of recession!

SEP 2001 is the first time in US history; the US went to war without any sacrifice of its people (with the exception of America's Sons and Daughters in combat zones).

The wars generated a lot of jobs and business profits, but not the kind of jobs and business profits that are required for a long-term economy. The US never shifted out of the wartime spending model, even to this day, over 20+ years of a fake economy.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Currency is fiat today, it is no longer a debt that will be paid back in gold like the old days. So in theory if GDP keep growing it will inflate away.

Yes, you could have the fed do "QE" - ie conjure money out of thin air, and buy all the debt, then retire it. Problem is the dollar would be worthless afterwards.

Easier to boil the frog one degree at a time via inflation.

I am not a gold bug, but you can look at the value of anything since 1971 - the year we made the last vestiges to the dollar being attached to anything real. A house ($28,000), a car ($4000), a ounce of gold ($45), a barrel of oil ($2.24) and easily see how much the dollar has failed in less than an adult lifespan.

 

[CKN]

Yes, you could have the fed do "QE" - ie conjure money out of thin air, and buy all the debt, then retire it. Problem is the dollar would be worthless afterwards.

Easier to boil the frog one degree at a time via inflation.

I am not a gold bug, but you can look at the value of anything since 1971 - the year we made the last vestiges to the dollar being attached to anything real. A house ($28,000), a car ($4000), a ounce of gold ($45), a barrel of oil ($2.24) and easily see how much the dollar has failed in less than an adult lifespan.

A house today would be $222,000 in today's dollars verses 1971 dollars. While I appreciate your thoughts-they are vastly over simplified. There are many, many more factors at play.

 

[CKN]

https://www.dollartimes.com/inflation/inflation.php?amount=28000&year=1971

 

[SC Maintenance]

A house today would be $222,000 in today's dollars verses 1971 dollars. While I appreciate your thoughts-they are vastly over simplified. There are many, many more factors at play.

OK, yes its quite simple because its 4 items, and there is a lot more to prices than just inflation. What are you inferring? That the central bank has not inflated the dollar away?

Here is a nice chart from the same central bank. You will notice that the inflation curve took a nice kink upwards at the same time - 1971, and that slope continued. Coincidence I guess.

Edit - I amended the graph to add the Case Shiller home price index (red dashed line). It only goes back to the mid 80's - but still Interesting no?

 

[JeffKeryk]

A house today would be $222,000 in today's dollars verses 1971 dollars. While I appreciate your thoughts-they are vastly over simplified. There are many, many more factors at play.

Or $2.8M.

 

[billt460]

.....While I appreciate your thoughts-they are vastly over simplified. There are many, many more factors at play.

It's really not over simplified. Our currency has been vastly over inflated by massive printing. Added to that is tremendous deficit over spending, year after year by the government. All with nothing to back it up.

Proof of that has been the rise of the price of gold, along with other precious metals against the dollar. In my lifetime alone I can remember going to the bank, and trading in paper dollars for silver dollars. Every bank had drawers full of them.

Naturally this was when our currency was considered valuable against silver and gold. Paper and ink was cheap then, just as it is now.