Another article showing concern in the housing market- yet the author may have lacked critical thinking

[BMWTurboDzl]

The fact is historically the same amount of people own homes as they always have and recent statistics show young buyers of 25 years old own more homes than any point in history

Same amount in real numbers? That's a problem with an ever expanding population. A skills shortage* in the trades and zoning restrictions which artificially curtails the supply of "affordable housing" which results in a national shortage of up to 6M units over the last 10-12 yrs.

*WSJ is reporting that the shortage in Canada is at a decade low.

 

[Rmay635703]

Same amount in real numbers? That's a problem with an ever expanding population. A skills shortage* in the trades and zoning restrictions which artificially curtails the supply of "affordable housing" which results in a national shortage of up to 6M units over the last 10-12 yrs.

*WSJ is reporting that the shortage in Canada is at a decade low.

And the debt load and debt to income ratio on “home owners” continues to erode which is an indicator that mortgages aren’t getting paid down or are “unhealthy “

No wonder banks don’t want to write loans

 

[GON]

Quick update. Still shopping hard for a home. Observations suggest a well-built home, on a nice lot, with a good floorplan will go under contract to sell in days regardless of condition. Homes with bad design, bad lot, and asking top dollar and not selling so fast.

I am also seeing a trend of Realtors listing their personal residence, and then dropping the price by $30k +/- just weeks after listing their residence. I sense there are numerous reasons, but my takeaway is to not even look at a residence that is owned by a Realtor.

 

[zzyzzx]

Canadian pension plan dumps stake in NYC commercial real estate project for just $1​

Canadian pension plan dumps stake in NYC commercial real estate project for just $1 in 'opposite of a vote of confidence for office'

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board did three deals at discounted prices, including a pair of Vancouver towers and a Southern California business park.

fortune.com

 

[greenjp]

2 joints on sale right now in my neighborhood for 15% more than we paid 12 months ago. Both "pending" one on market for 5 days the other for 15.

jeff

 

[zzyzzx]

 

[zzyzzx]

 

[zzyzzx]

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

View attachment 206792

This time IS totally different. For example the credit quality is significantly better combined with plain vanilla loan products make it unlike 2008. Valuations are also being monitored via data accumulation beginning around 2012.

 

[zzyzzx]

The US housing market is slowly thawing, but 91% of homes are still overvalued, Fitch says

"High mortgage rates and elevated home prices, which aggravate the affordability issue, continue to moderate the pace of this normalization."

finance.yahoo.com

 

[zzyzzx]

 

[Rmay635703]

This time IS totally different. For example the credit quality is significantly better combined with plain vanilla loan products make it unlike 2008. Valuations are also being monitored via data accumulation beginning around 2012.

Yes every time it fails it’s totally different…

in that only one narrow portion of worker in a specific wage range has a mortgage.

Remember what they say about diversification?
The overpriced segment of the vehicle market that is the only segment the big 3 want to sell into has collapsed and now as a couple times before they have their pants down with nothing to sell to the buyers left.

This is similar to housing, those that bought during the pandemic are 3x more likely now to be loosing jobs or becoming underemployed as compared to the general population.

The mortgage market favored all aces in a game of blackjack.

Overwhelmingly those “left out” of the home game are continuing to be doing better than normal but have nothing to buy.

 

[zzyzzx]

 

[alarmguy]

Quick update. Still shopping hard for a home. Observations suggest a well-built home, on a nice lot, with a good floorplan will go under contract to sell in days regardless of condition. Homes with bad design, bad lot, and asking top dollar and not selling so fast.

I am also seeing a trend of Realtors listing their personal residence, and then dropping the price by $30k +/- just weeks after listing their residence. I sense there are numerous reasons, but my takeaway is to not even look at a residence that is owned by a Realtor.

Not sure how that makes sense. Are you buying a realtor or a house? Really choose a house based on the occupants occupation?
What about homes listed by owner? There is a wide variety there, as well as homes listed by agents and builders, same wild variety there too.

Heck, our builder in our community whom you can deal direct with or use a buyers agent, puts homes on the market, then as nearing completion if not sold, will increase the price 10s of thousands of dollars for a certain period of time and then weeks later put it on sale for 10s of thousands less. Im talking 20 to $50,000. So it shows up as a HUGE sale price. IN many cases it's a game, no matter who lists a home.
Some people and agents might put their home up for sale just to see if anyone will pay the price and if they do, good news for them. If not they will stay there, really nothing wrong with what the market will pay if you own a home. I see your point though, since agents know the market they may tend to throw the home up for sale to see if anyone will pay the price more often than someone less involved with real estate. I just dont think it's as wide spread as you are experiencing but maybe.

Price rules, features, sq ft community and price is all anyone needs to pay attention too.

 

[zzyzzx]

Homebuyers need to earn 80% more than in 2020 to afford a house in this market. It's not just due to high mortgage rates

While mortgage rates remain elevated for potential homebuyers, factors outside borrowing costs are keeping housing unaffordable for many, experts say.

www.cnbc.com

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

Ya know a big issue with housing especially in expensive areas of the country is Capital Gains. Elderly living in too much house because they'll lose a chunk of equity in Capital Gains taxes.

 

[tbm5690]

Homebuyers need to earn 80% more than in 2020 to afford a house in this market. It's not just due to high mortgage rates

While mortgage rates remain elevated for potential homebuyers, factors outside borrowing costs are keeping housing unaffordable for many, experts say.

www.cnbc.com

According to this article a good solution is building more multifamily units to increase supply.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I am actually fairly surprised, but a couple houses within a couple blocks of my house sold recently. Both were significantly less than the listing price, but significantly more than I would pay. I guess at some point if you gotta move, you gotta move.

 

[greenjp]

Ya know a big issue with housing especially in expensive areas of the country is Capital Gains. Elderly living in too much house because they'll lose a chunk of equity in Capital Gains taxes.

I may be off base but believe any appreciation on your primary home, if lived in for 2 of the past 5 years, is tax free? Are there localities that don't treat it this way?

 

[SC Maintenance]

I may be off base but believe any appreciation on your primary home, if lived in for 2 of the past 5 years, is tax free? Are there localities that don't treat it this way?

That is my understanding as well, but its capped at 500,000 for a married couple, and you can't have taken the deduction in the last 5 years or something.

It used to be much more restrictive. I wonder how many older people think its still that way?