Another article showing concern in the housing market- yet the author may have lacked critical thinking

US Federal Funds Rate. High interest rates induce recessions. Hard to escape. ( the grey bar represent the duration of past recessions). I lived in Houston during the short recession of 1989 and had to ask my co-workers why the signs outside the banks were covered in bed sheets. Answer: The banks were going under and/ or they were being taken over.

View attachment 134379
Wait a minute. The banks were going under or were being taken over?
 
I know someone who worked car loans for C1. Management of such things is different than it was. I am not sure we can use car repo information as easily as in the past, as a measure of economic health.

Things are managed differently today in just about every field.

I see the US economy as currently near robust, but perpetually on the edge of disaster. Will AI be the next tech boom? Or is it worthless? Will Iran nuke Israel? Will millennials purchase homes?

Something like 27% of homes are purchased with cash, even those purchasers might dry up if they can't sell existing homes, leading to a solid downturn.

Israel will bomb Iran’s nuclear program in the near future.

Hopefully home prices keep dropping. No reason why cheaply constructed, cookie cutter , FOMO factory homes should be $600-700K.
 
Not sure about not spending a dime on a new home after the purchase. Perhaps on HVAC and structural stuff, I would agree, but any upgrades cost a huge premium from the builder.
So if one has deep enough pockets to get everything they want from the builder, sure I can see that, but otherwise especially first time buyers, they will most likely be spending money on improvements.
Bought two brand new homes, it certainly wasn’t a done deal on spending after the purchase in my case lol.
Yeah we all do what works for us.
When we bought we were happy with everything we did, structure and optional rooms were most important to us and paid back nicely on our sale 4 months ago.
 
Israel will bomb Iran’s nuclear program in the near future.

Hopefully home prices keep dropping. No reason why cheaply constructed, cookie cutter , FOMO factory homes should be $600-700K.
@Cujet

Its not really the home, its the property/land cost/area


When we looked in Florida we were going to buy a home, same builder, same home, same fixtures for under 400K
Different neighborhood same home 550k
A home lets say in St. Augustine or Fort Lauderdale will be much more expensive than then same exact model in Yulee, FL

The two communities we seriously considered in Florida, they still can not build them fast enough. One community I think is now completely sold, finished and the other still being developed and has years to go but the first 70 homes or so are all gone and people in line waiting for the next group to be released once the lots are marked and utilities in. These are in the 375 to 450 range.

When we looked at both these communities June 2022 We had our pick of lots and homes for months. Granted this might be considered lower end but not really, it's just the property is less in Yulee area. Same homes, same builder in more well known areas are pricey, add on another $100,000+ to the price in some other areas, other problem in Yulee is they are on postage stamp lots (but this has also taken place in ST Augustine) and was the ultimate reason to take a pass on Florida. Glad we did Im surprised at how people are wowed into a nice home where we you look out your window, you are literally looking into your neighbors window.
We do want and are community people but this is too extreme for even us.
Through in Florida HOA and CCD fees and property taxes together and we thought was stupid crazy, dont know why Florida is looked at as inexpensive anymore.

Moving into our new home in North Carolina Coastal area next week. Today is preclosing walkthrough. Same to better price range, MUCH larger lots, country club destination too. People do golfing vacations "villa rentals" there, gated, guards, cameras, license plate readers... and it's a stones throw from the beaches and a stones throw to the Myrtle Beach area.
Construction manager, straight up guy, middle age I guess, commented that he never had a development where construction materials can sit on a lot forever and not get stolen, same goes for the appliances in the homes, they dont even lock the finished homes.
Anyway, we went to contract end of 8/22 not sure but think the slab was poured, since then about 40 homes are going up, 15 or so are finished some closed and some to close shortly which includes us. The others have months to go at best. All sold out, another hundred or two to be built but they put a hold for now on any new releases as they cant get them built fast enough. The newest sales estimate closing is Oct.

Our experience may not be everyones but I do know or feel the east coast is very much alive with activity. SO Im not sure about the gloom and doom. My old neighbor in NY, homes are selling still as fast as they can list them and they are 60+ years old, 3 BR 2 bath homes at 400k for a complete gut job to 700k (of course many higher but this in NY is first time buyer prices.

I have no idea what will happen but this isnt 2008 by any means, simply because there still is no inventory in the places I know, doesnt mean other places though.
Every place there is a read mark the home is sold or in contract, no new homes for sale yet. Typically go up for sale when construction catches up. This is Yulee, first home wasnt occupied until late Nov or Dec Last Sept they were all empty lots or slabs or framed out.

Screenshot 2023-03-14 at 8.31.38 AM.png
 
Last edited:
Lennar 1st quarter Earnings Beat Today, New Orders Beat, Backlog Beat, Revenue Beat =


and the counterpoint (but this is the intention of higher interest rates)
 
Last edited:
  • Helpful
Reactions: GON
When we looked in Florida we were going to buy a home, same builder, same home, same fixtures for under 400K
Different neighborhood same home 550k
A home lets say in St. Augustine or Fort Lauderdale will be much more expensive than then same exact model in Yulee, FL

Your best guess as to why Yulee is cheaper then St Augustine?


Moving into our new home in North Carolina Coastal area next week. Today is preclosing walkthrough. Same to better price range, MUCH larger lots,

Typical lot size in both places please!
 
Your best guess as to why Yulee is cheaper then St Augustine?




Typical lot size in both places please!
50 x 100 and 60 x 100 lots all places we looked. 50 foot lots for a few styles other styles need 60 feet wide
The homes we looked at in St Augustine 50x100 postage size lots purchase price at the time June 2022 was $460k Big production builder
Same exact size 50x100 lot same style home almost exactly the same home, same features but a different big production builder price was 70 to 90k less in Yulee with same type of beautiful amenities, actually AMAZING amenities for what it is. But you pay dearly for them. In monthly CCD fees (unique to Florida) and HOA fees.

As far as the same builder compared directly with Yulee and St Augustine prices of the same exact home was 80k less. Amenities in the Yulee area for that community were nice for sure but maybe not as new. The lots we had picked out was AWESOME though and I think 60 feet wide with a Tidal river literally down the block by a few homes with a kayak launch ramp, we would have had a small pond or lake behind the lot we were looking at. It made my wife a little nervous though as the homes on both ends of the block were flood zones and some across the street. I LOVED the area, it was tough to walk away from that one but wasnt exactly the community amenities we wanted.

As far as why Yulee is cheaper is simple =
Yulee to us is fantastic location because being near the GA it’s a short drive to SC this was a must, we did not want to go to far south as we have kids here in the SC area and its exactly a 4 to 5 hour drive to see them. We didnt want to go further south because the distance to the kids would be further. (yes and as we found out cost as well)

Also big to us is it is right off I-95, we love being near an interstate and Florida is a LONG state so it certainly makes like easy to travel around being near one.
With that said, Yulee is more rural area just starting to be developed (compared to the rest of Florida) it's the place that EVERYONE drives right by when entering the state of Florida but doesnt know its there, including us for the last few decades! Being it's more rural, all the fantastic shopping and dining is brought 20 minutes to 30 minutes down the interstate further south into Florida.
With that being said, the beaches to me are beautiful in the Yulee area, Fernandina Beach is really nice, quaint.

There is one other thing about Yulee, Im not sure how much can be developed, that area of GA and FL is VERY low. Many communities have at least some areas in a flood zone and in places it actually goes all the way up past I-95
I have spent a lot of time on the FEMA flood maps but it didnt bother me as I knew what lot I was picking out, even though technically 1/4 of our driveway would have been in a flood zone


So what is great about Yulee, it's less than around 25 minutes into Jacksonville, there is an incredible hospital network there, including the Mayo Clinic. Yulee is also growing significantly as well, it's not desolate by any means and the coastal area there very nice, as well as boat ramps for our boat and backwater tidal rivers to explore with kayaks which we love. Also something like 4 state/national huge parks all around. I never got the chance to look into all that. SO lets say it cost less because its not as developed and maybe never will be like the cities farther south.

Ok, St Augustine, I love that place too, actually I love all Florida but to repeat dint want to go any further south so we could still pretty easily drive to seem them and them us. St. Augustine is bustling with life, vibrant, places to eat, Ocean is great, shopping, ST Johns dining and Jacksonville maybe 27 minutes away. Homes are more expensive as location rules. Same homes but property cost more. Keep in mind we were only considering new though were open to a resale if less than 5 years old but we were stuck on new.

We like the West Coast too but to far for us. We also like the North West Coast of Florida Destin is awesome but way our of our league and no direct route to go north to SC but acceptable. I use to know Miami well and other places in Florida as siblings from my moms and dads side of the family lived in those places (long gone now) but some of my cousins still live in the Miami area.
 
Last edited:
  • Helpful
Reactions: GON
^^^ Yeah, 40 year mortgages will be here some day. Who ever thought there would be 7+ year auto loans?
People will never own their home or their car if they dont stop the madness, all they will be doing is supporting the financial system paying interest and when all done doing that for 23 years they will start paying down principle. *LOL*

An "inconvenient truth" =
Fools and their money. If it wasnt for the banking lobby and ignorance of the majority, a minimum of one year personal finance would be a requirement to graduate high school.
(remember, keep the public dumb)
 
Last edited:
^^^ Yeah, 40 year mortgages will be here some day. Who ever thought there would be 7+ year auto loans?
People will never own their home or their car if they dont stop the madness, all they will be doing is supporting the financial system paying interest and when all done doing that for 23 years they will start paying down principle. *LOL*

An "inconvenient truth" =
Fools and their money. If it wasnt for the banking lobby and ignorance of the majority, a minimum of one year personal finance would be a requirement to graduate high school.
(remember, keep the public dumb)
Who ever thought that with just regular maintenance vehicles will last 7 years and be mostly trouble free?
 
Sellers clinging on to summer 2021 prices like bankers clinging on to bonds at "par value"...
I got to tell you, here in coastal NC, the market is still nuts. Glad we bought when we did, closed just two weeks ago.
It's just insane. Selling as fast as the build them, actually WAY faster than they build them. Im in shock.
BUT, granted, this is a state and area that is literally a zone that people are escaping the Northeast and other areas like it from (no politics) But one just has to read the news, its crazy, we just moved here, signed contracts end of August 2022
They really got things moving now, one block over, they are constructing the entire block at the same time, was sold out months ago, now on to selling the next and have enough land for another 200

But forget that, we drive down the road and land being cleared all over... *LOL* not sure I want them all. !
 
ZZZZ,

No decent house lasts a week. I have given up on trying to buy a house at a below market value price. In Arizona, undesirable homes are still having sales contracts signed in under a week. I remain amazed at how strong house prices have remained, even though interest rates are double what they were just two years ago.

I speculate people unwilling to sell their homes due to having a locked in low interest rate, unavailability of new homes, and inflation as the reason home prices are now, right now- at record/ all time highs. My comment is in a macro basis, of course someone who has a undesirable home that wants above market value is not having great sales success.
 
The case shiller composite index keeps going down, albeit at a pretty slow rate, and those numbers are always 75 days behind. I guess the tell will be how things go this spring, if they continue dropping into the busy season, or start going up again will say a lot.
 
Back
Top