Best case, and I mean best, it will last for another year. Shelves are bare, back orders are in the Billions of dollars, ammo prices are quadruple what they were 18 months ago, and everyone is acutely aware of the shortage, which ironically, stimulates demand.
As was seen with other commodities, shortage stimulates people’s desire for that commodity (e.g. toilet paper, paper towels, Clorox products). Since those commodities haven’t recovered yet, and the ammo shortage is lagging them, we’ve got a very long way to go.
One of my local gun stores told me, yesterday, as I was looking at an M1 carbine, that .30 carbine ammo “can’t be found anywhere”. I mentioned that I had some. His cash offer for ammo shocked me. I could trade my ammo for the carbine itself. We’re still deep in the peak demand if a gun store is willing to pay me three times what I paid for it, and they’re offering wholesale, with intent to mark it up.