Originally Posted by JustN89
Originally Posted by fdcg27
Originally Posted by JustN89
The A380 would never be economically viable for most carriers, even if it was lighter and with more efficient engines. Especially considering the 777X that is around the corner. You just do not give up enough ASM to justify the expense of carrying more fuel, operating and maintaining two more engines, etc. Not that there wasn't ever a time for the A380, but the landscape of the industry has changed a lot with new regulations (ETOPS) and the huge jumps in technology we've enjoyed. The way things are now, airlines will almost always enjoy a higher RPASM with 2 engine aircraft over 4 engine aircraft. That's not even considering that the A380 has no value as a freigher- a huge hit to its value.
Well, we'll never know now, since the program is done so no further developments will come.
Consider high volume TATL routes like most from JFK. Consider also that the A380 can accommodate vast premium real estate within its huge floor space and that it's these premium passengers who really make the flight pay.
Had Airbus built the plane for optimal performance on maybe 6K max segments and leaned on the engine makers for better offerings, then this type might have made economic sense for a lot of carriers. As built and operated, it only made real sense for exactly one.
Too bad for this massive and costly project. It is a shame that spotting or flying opportunities for the type are going to go away rather quickly.
Wife and I will need to plan to get at least one flight on this type.
The problem was never "can we find a route for this aircraft", it was whether or not there were enough high density routes between hubs to justify purchasing enough of the aircraft type and establish maintenance programs and training programs. The A380 was essentially doomed from its design- it was simply too big and airlines (specially the non-subsidized ones) were already looking to smaller, more efficient aircraft on routes that they can operate more often. Airports needed to change (thus increasing how much it cost to operate the A380 in those airports), hangars needed renovation, all new tools needed purchasing, etc. That doesn't even touch the man hours needed to create the maintenance programs, perform the maintenance, train flight crew, train ground crew for the handling of the Super Jumbo, maintaining and operating 4 engines on an aircraft, and so on. All 3 U.S. major airlines (not including SWA because I think they are too point-to-point) have a route or three where an A380 could be operated profitably, but it was just never going to be economically feasible. An airline can't go through all that effort and expense for a handful of aircraft on its own. It's too bad as it's an incredible engineering feat and cool to see flying- I love watching them land here in Dallas- but there was just too much stacked against it to offer a lot of staying power.
First off, to make the A380 viable would require that an airline adopt an operating model that would enable it to use a decent number of the type. Emirates has obviously done this and BA has indicated that they would take more although not at the prices Airbus was asking. BA will have the opportunity to demonstrate their commitment as low cycle mid time frames become available.
It should also be remembered that given engine out requirements the twins are way overpowered relative to quads so it may very well not cost less to maintain two big honkers than four hairdriers.
WRT the airlines, none of the surviving Big 3 US carriers were in a financial position to seriously consider an A380 fleet when the type entered service and they might have had input into its design and development had they had the wallet to seriously consider the type.
Did Airbus even bother to pitch this aircraft to the US legacy carriers? I don't think that they did.
Anyway, we're way off topic here, so I'll stop making the case for the A380.
Still, it's interesting to think of what might have been with this now demonstrably failed type.
As I wrote above, wife and I will have to plan a trip around flying in one while they're still in service.