401 K took a beating!

[hatt]

Are the The Stock Market is a SCAM Nervous Nancys back on the buy buy buy the market will surely go up forever train? I

 

[JeffKeryk]

I think the markets had COVID-19 ? The truth is that we can't yet gauge the full economic impact, and by the time we can, the volatility may have passed. My advice, for what it's worth, is make your decisions is a calm market. Good luck.

 

[AC1DD]

Originally Posted by Wolf359

Originally Posted by grampi

It's sad that a fake crisis can tank the markets like this. Good thing 95% of my portfolio is in guarantied funds...

That's just a failure to understand the markets. This happens all the time, market gets oversold and then goes back up after a massive drop. In this case, around 4%. The dead cat bounce is when the market seems to recover and then continues to drop more. It remains to be seen whether this will happen or not. It's sad that people don't understand how the markets really work.

Yes and Zero Hedge is a good place to learn more lots of very informed members over there. I believe that the PPT had boosted the market because of the ensuing panic but in short order even they won't be able to stop the train wreck. Oddly I thought the CEO of Disney quitting without any notice was VERY strange indeed. The party's over? I'm taking about 10k in cash out of the bank just in case.

 

[PimTac]

Zero hedge? Please.

 

[AC1DD]

Originally Posted by PimTac

Zero hedge? Please.

That's where I learned of how serious the coronavirus was, the mass media was ABSENT entirely from any serious reporting at all. Also if you weed through the trolls there, you will find some VERY good informative posts by members. The information is there and there are many nuggets of valuable info that you won't find anywhere else first.

 

[kschachn]

There are trolls, yes. They got threads deleted and locked with their continual ranting about the virus.

 

[AC1DD]

Originally Posted by kschachn

There are trolls, yes. They got threads deleted and locked with their continual ranting about the virus.

Almost makes me wonder if they do it deliberately, to control the narrative? A thing I definitely noticed over the years on many forums is when there is a topic that is "sensitive" all of a sudden the trolls appear like phantoms and break every rule possible, and of course the result is they get the thread closed, but also interesting is that why don't those mods ban the trolls instead of locking the thread?

 

[ZeeOSix]

"Sensitive" topics always gets people excited, so it's no surprise things spin out. That's human nature, and really not a big surprise.

 

[AC1DD]

Originally Posted by ZeeOSix

"Sensitive" topics always gets people excited, so it's no surprise things spin out. That's human nature, and really not a big surprise.

True but like I mentioned before I've noticed on many different forums that you'll see phantom members that you'll never see post or have very low post counts that appear and wreck havoc and then the threads are locked, but these posters live on and do the same thing on future threads. It seems odd to me.

 

[Mr Nice]

Originally Posted by AC1DD

Originally Posted by Wolf359

Originally Posted by grampi

It's sad that a fake crisis can tank the markets like this. Good thing 95% of my portfolio is in guarantied funds...

That's just a failure to understand the markets. This happens all the time, market gets oversold and then goes back up after a massive drop. In this case, around 4%. The dead cat bounce is when the market seems to recover and then continues to drop more. It remains to be seen whether this will happen or not. It's sad that people don't understand how the markets really work.

Yes and Zero Hedge is a good place to learn more lots of very informed members over there. I believe that the PPT had boosted the market because of the ensuing panic but in short order even they won't be able to stop the train wreck. Oddly I thought the CEO of Disney quitting without any notice was VERY strange indeed. The party's over? I'm taking about 10k in cash out of the bank just in case.

There's 3 emergency phones: 1. Russia 2. Pentagon 3. PPT

 

[Amkeer]

Originally Posted by gman2304

The market needed a correction. It's been on fire for over 3 years! Still way up over 2016 and should continue growing at a robust pace until at least November of 2020. Expect some volatility, with a number of corrections over the next few years, but many analysts are predicting a bull market with historic growth through 2024!

Interesting. My charts show something different. I can guess why you feel this way.

 

[grampi]

Originally Posted by ZeeOSix

Originally Posted by grampi

I know the Coronavirus was not a legitimate reason for the huge drop in the market.

It's probably more of a "real reason" compared to other times the market makes big reactions. If the Coronavirus really becomes a serious pandemic then it will affect the world economy. Even if it was only super extreme in China that would still effect the US economy because we rely on China for so many things these days. People not going to work, school, restaurants, movies, concerts, sporting events, etc, etc. People will not be going out and spending money. People will not be working to produce goods and services. If that doesn't effect the economy, I don't know what will.

I would agree if it actually became a pandemic, THAT would be a legitimate reason for a big market correction...as it is currently, it's not...

 

[Astro14]

Originally Posted by AC1DD

Originally Posted by kschachn

There are trolls, yes. They got threads deleted and locked with their continual ranting about the virus.

Almost makes me wonder if they do it deliberately, to control the narrative? A thing I definitely noticed over the years on many forums is when there is a topic that is "sensitive" all of a sudden the trolls appear like phantoms and break every rule possible, and of course the result is they get the thread closed, but also interesting is that why don't those mods ban the trolls instead of locking the thread?

There is a lot that goes on without public comment. Your question presumes that, because you don't see the action, it isn't happening. That's completely false. A lot of action takes place, but it's not public. Posts that are unacceptable get edited, or deleted. If a thread is riddled with unacceptable posts, it's often deleted as the editing isn't effective. Members get warned via PM if they're not following rules. Members who have a history of not following rules, or have egregiously violated rules, are banned. Some temporarily as a warning. Some permanently. There were several permanent bans in February. All carefully considered. No one is going to publicly crow about banning a member. It's done seriously, and privately. It's not a spectacle for general consumption. Mods frequently communicate, privately, about those decisions. Think about it this way: if you were out of bounds in a post, would you want a mod to call you out in that thread? Publicly, openly, discuss your behavior? Or discreetly discuss it with you via PM? A public reprimand is generally a poor way to handle bad behavior. It invites further conflict by putting the person on the defensive. It creates a spectacle. An old adage from military leaders, "praise in public, reprimand in private" is particularly apt for handling issues in an Internet forum with over 70,000 members that is visible to millions.

 

[alarmguy]

Originally Posted by PimTac

Originally Posted by Wolf359

Originally Posted by PimTac

Closing up 4.5 to 5%. There is a old investor adage, "When the train leaves the station you had better be on it."

Yes, up 4.6% on the S&P 500. Is it too early to sing Happy Days are Here Again?

Probably too early. That's a great song though.

^^ I agree ^^ Its a bit early. after the "shock" is over, I think we will see lower range profit expectations but nothing that would be considered unreasonable and might be already accounted for in the market but it just seems too soon. The "virus/flu" is now taken into account by Wallstreet, meaning the market is priced for the present and and we know, Wallstreet looks forward, so it will start gambling on future interest rates cuts here and abroad, as well as incentives, to drive prices higher. Then on the flip side, and one I think is very, very possible, Monday was a technical bump and maybe amplified by margin calls. Only time will tell, I dont try to time the market anymore, we all know P/E is high right now but nothing stops the flow of money into 401ks anymore, and values seem to just keep climbing, of course, there is another flip side, much of the public believes if the market corrects like last week it will just jump back to normal the following week, sometimes that is a bad sign too *L* Then, there is always a Japan scenario and could take 2 decades to recover but bottom line is, no one knows, one thing we do know, is the decline last week had more to do with something other then a little flu going around and that is all Corona is. Yes, it can cut earnings expectations but other then that just go back to 2009/10 when 500 million people in the world had swine flu, 5000 Americans died from it and life goes on. So last week maybe a good thing if it slows down the rapid rise of the last year, lets things consolidate a little. Ok, just this mornings ramblings ... :o) and I have no idea of what I am saying kind of ... just like a fake news network *L*

 

[PimTac]

Futures are green this morning.

 

[ZeeOSix]

Originally Posted by PimTac

Futures are green this morning.

Obviously not a good indicator for today. It was positive for about 30 min.

 

[ZeeOSix]

Originally Posted by grampi

Originally Posted by ZeeOSix

Originally Posted by grampi

I know the Coronavirus was not a legitimate reason for the huge drop in the market.

It's probably more of a "real reason" compared to other times the market makes big reactions. If the Coronavirus really becomes a serious pandemic then it will affect the world economy. Even if it was only super extreme in China that would still effect the US economy because we rely on China for so many things these days. People not going to work, school, restaurants, movies, concerts, sporting events, etc, etc. People will not be going out and spending money. People will not be working to produce goods and services. If that doesn't effect the economy, I don't know what will.

I would agree if it actually became a pandemic, THAT would be a legitimate reason for a big market correction...as it is currently, it's not...

It's already causing some supply chain issues, so it's a real impact to the economy right now. If it becomes a huge pandemic who knows what the market will do. It's a world economy, so if this goes world wide pandemic all countries and economics will be impacted. Let's hope that doesn't happen, but that's why there's a certain level of "panic" going on (including the stock markets). People sitting back and feeling it's "no big deal" and that it will all "go away" on it's own is probably a wrong way to look at it right now.

 

[JOD]

I'm holding for the foreseeable future. If I miss out on a bunch of gains, I'm cool with it. The supply chains in China are still a mess, and it's just starting to really hit the manufacturing sectors. It's not going to be fixed overnight--and this isn't some theoretical stuff I read about on the internet, this is first-hand experience. Complicating things is that Chinese manufacturing is tied into S Korea and SE Asia, particularly due to the trade war and anti-dumping duties in the EU. And the SE Asian countries will not be able to control the virus like China, and travel between all of these countries is restricted to a degree. I just don't see how this won't have a significant impact on the global economy.

 

[bachman]

Originally Posted by Astro14

Originally Posted by AC1DD

Originally Posted by kschachn

There are trolls, yes. They got threads deleted and locked with their continual ranting about the virus.

Almost makes me wonder if they do it deliberately, to control the narrative? A thing I definitely noticed over the years on many forums is when there is a topic that is "sensitive" all of a sudden the trolls appear like phantoms and break every rule possible, and of course the result is they get the thread closed, but also interesting is that why don't those mods ban the trolls instead of locking the thread?

There is a lot that goes on without public comment. Your question presumes that, because you don't see the action, it isn't happening. That's completely false. A lot of action takes place, but it's not public. Posts that are unacceptable get edited, or deleted. If a thread is riddled with unacceptable posts, it's often deleted as the editing isn't effective. Members get warned via PM if they're not following rules. Members who have a history of not following rules, or have egregiously violated rules, are banned. Some temporarily as a warning. Some permanently. There were several permanent bans in February. All carefully considered. No one is going to publicly crow about banning a member. It's done seriously, and privately. It's not a spectacle for general consumption. Mods frequently communicate, privately, about those decisions. Think about it this way: if you were out of bounds in a post, would you want a mod to call you out in that thread? Publicly, openly, discuss your behavior? Or discreetly discuss it with you via PM? A public reprimand is generally a poor way to handle bad behavior. It invites further conflict by putting the person on the defensive. It creates a spectacle. An old adage from military leaders, "praise in public, reprimand in private" is particularly apt for handling issues in an Internet forum with over 75,000 members that is visible to millions.

Noted that just the other day. As you say stuff, happens behind the scenes and one of the reasons I like to applaud mods and admin for the work they do. Lots we never see or know about. A Moderator commented they shut down a thread for a bit to 'clean up' / delete ? some posts that ran off track (my words). There was a 2 hour window or less between the the last 'legit' post and the note by the Mod. Unless your post was deleted or you noted the post by the mod, you'd never know anything was going on. I'm at times, active on VW, Mazda and more often, a mountain bike forum. The mtb forum is pretty on top of the detritus, rants or bullying and I see that more possibly because they have a bit more offenders or action of that sort.

 

[Astro14]

This Thread's very title is misleading. I'll accept it, if, and only if, you had started a thread last month that said something like, "401k is rocketing upwards!" Because it had been doing just that for years. The whole market has had a phenomenal run over the last few years. I quietly started selling some winners in November, and putting aside some cash, because, simply, good times don't last forever, and wanted to have some cash to invest when the market had a correction. Which it just did. I'm still heavily in the market. About 75% of portfolio is equities, about 20% cash and a bit in fixed income. With three family pensions, (Mrs. Astro is a retired Navy Captain getting a pension, for example) our fixed income is quite robust and the portfolio exists to achieve long term growth. I'll sit on the sidelines for a bit longer. When Mrs. Astro is ready to get back in, we will. She's exceptionally well-informed and I rely on her valuation/estimation. Anyway, this is a good time to dust off this old saw from JP Morgan, who, when asked by a passerby what the stock market was going to do next, Morgan responded simply: "It will fluctuate." Relax...