401 K took a beating!

[4WD]

They are not just locking the thread. They have been working to remove statements that break the rules. Sometimes they do that and keep the thread going, sometimes they remove the comments and lock it anyway. Then folks go looking and trying to figure out why it got locked. The moderator always states why.

 

[Amkeer]

Futures are down. Its in a whipsaw movement which is a good sign. We should rally due to the market being way oversold. That will quickly be sold into. Short positions are picking up and should increase after another rally.

 

[alarmguy]

This is going to be an interesting week. One in which no one knows the answer. Its to the point of mass hysteria, welcome to the new world with 24 hour news shows playing endlessly, preying on peoples fears to keep them tuned in, people watching them like soap operas. For me, there is some valid reason for a drop, profits will be off future predictions but again, these drops of the last week simply took us down to 2019 levels, its not that bad yet, the market adjusting to that level. The test will be this week, will we be at 20,000 or where we are right now by Friday. Personally Im not panicking, I dont need the money in my Roth and if the market never recovers it wont matter much anyway. Japans markets only recently started coming back after what must be close to 3 decades. (yes 30 years) As far as my 401k, well, same deal, and believe it or not, I just increased my weekly contribution over the weekend. I know I am crazy. I cant control the market and I am not going to try to time it, its had a LONG run up to the current levels, all it needed was a catalyst to teach people markets dont go straight up and putting money in the market doesnt make you instantly rich, if ever. But some how I think this is a test of the USA stock market and honestly, the most powerful market in the world, if its doomsday, it wont matter. So back to logic then, dont panic and make rational decisions, because the market will still be there tomorrow, even at 16,000 or 20,000 it will come back some day. We needed a sell off, valuations and speculation was out of hand. With that said ... "almighty father, maker of heaven and ... " *L*

 

[Astro14]

Originally Posted by ZeeOSix

Originally Posted by kschachn

Two threads locked or deleted yesterday due to people not being able to control themselves in regards to commenting on this virus. People either won't or can't learn.

I don't know why the Mods won't allow talk about the coronavirus ... it's something that's going on and it's not political, etc. It's a real thing going on, and people should talk about it.

You're completely free to talk about Coronavirus. But folks made it political, and that got one thread deleted. Other folks started bickering, and that thread got locked. This isn't a "mod" issue. It's a poster behavior issue.

 

[dishdude]

Originally Posted by Amkeer

Futures are down. Its in a whipsaw movement which is a good sign. We should rally due to the market being way oversold. That will quickly be sold into. Short positions are picking up and should increase after another rally.

I can't figure this out, the dow is up over 700 points right now.

 

[PimTac]

Because futures are predictive but not always reality. The ISM numbers caused a downdraft but I suspect some liquidity coming into the market.

 

[Yah-Tah-Hey]

The world was supposed to end January 1, 2000 too.

 

[grampi]

It's sad that a fake crisis can tank the markets like this. Good thing 95% of my portfolio is in guarantied funds...

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by grampi

It's sad that a fake crisis can tank the markets like this. Good thing 95% of my portfolio is in guarantied funds...

That's just a failure to understand the markets. This happens all the time, market gets oversold and then goes back up after a massive drop. In this case, around 4%. The dead cat bounce is when the market seems to recover and then continues to drop more. It remains to be seen whether this will happen or not. It's sad that people don't understand how the markets really work.

 

[PimTac]

Closing up 4.5 to 5%. There is a old investor adage, "When the train leaves the station you had better be on it."

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by PimTac

Closing up 4.5 to 5%. There is a old investor adage, "When the train leaves the station you had better be on it."

Yes, up 4.6% on the S&P 500. Is it too early to sing Happy Days are Here Again?

 

[grampi]

Originally Posted by Wolf359

Originally Posted by grampi

It's sad that a fake crisis can tank the markets like this. Good thing 95% of my portfolio is in guarantied funds...

That's just a failure to understand the markets. This happens all the time, market gets oversold and then goes back up after a massive drop. In this case, around 4%. The dead cat bounce is when the market seems to recover and then continues to drop more. It remains to be seen whether this will happen or not. It's sad that people don't understand how the markets really work.

I know the Coronavirus was not a legitimate reason for the huge drop in the market. Either way I don't really care as my portfolio will be guaranteed from here on, so it can't lose any principle...it won't make much either, but not losing principle is more important to me than earning a high percentage...

 

[PimTac]

Originally Posted by Wolf359

Originally Posted by PimTac

Closing up 4.5 to 5%. There is a old investor adage, "When the train leaves the station you had better be on it."

Yes, up 4.6% on the S&P 500. Is it too early to sing Happy Days are Here Again?

Probably too early. That's a great song though.

 

[ZeeOSix]

Originally Posted by 4WD

They are not just locking the thread. They have been working to remove statements that break the rules. Sometimes they do that and keep the thread going, sometimes they remove the comments and lock it anyway. Then folks go looking and trying to figure out why it got locked. The moderator always states why.

No they don't. Sometimes threads disappear or get locked without anything being said. And yes Astro, I know it's due to posters "going off track". Why not PM those guys and tell them to knock it off instead of just deleting or locking a thread? Anyway, my take on the big uptick today on the markets is because people see an opportunity to buy low. The big market players made some big money today, and they may ride it for a day or two and bail out again for another opportunity to buy low. Hard to say if the markets will continue up, but my guess is not if the virus spread keeps increasing at an alarming rate. Keep in mind that it's a world economy, so if other countries keep going down there's no way the US market can keep going up quickly for a total regain of the losses from last week.

 

[ZeeOSix]

Originally Posted by grampi

I know the Coronavirus was not a legitimate reason for the huge drop in the market.

It's probably more of a "real reason" compared to other times the market makes big reactions. If the Coronavirus really becomes a serious pandemic then it will affect the world economy. Even if it was only super extreme in China that would still effect the US economy because we rely on China for so many things these days. People not going to work, school, restaurants, movies, concerts, sporting events, etc, etc. People will not be going out and spending money. People will not be working to produce goods and services. If that doesn't effect the economy, I don't know what will.

 

[Mr Nice]

Isn't like 73% of our GDP is consumer spending ? So if consumer spending drops cause of CV then for sure it would hurt our economy. What if Fed Gov said all theme parks in central Florida closed immediately and stay closed until further notice.... ?

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by Mr Nice

Isn't like 73% of our GDP is consumer spending ? So if consumer spending drops cause of CV then for sure it would hurt our economy. What if Fed Gov said all theme parks in central Florida closed immediately and stay closed until further notice.... ?

Right but if it's closed for a month, that's 8.3% of the year. Then if those that didn't go, end up going later, it gets more crowded than normal. So even though 8.3% might be lost in a month, it might not be a complete 8.3% loss. That's why they were only predicting that growth would slow this year.

 

[PimTac]

Some nervous investors are considering the virus as a Black Swan event. A Black Swan event doesn't have to be catastrophic in and of itself, the perception is what is doing the damage. Everything from airlines cancelling flights to certain locations to movie theaters closing because not enough people are coming to see a movie and all in between. This leads to layoffs, less spending and so forth. I'm not saying this is a Black Swan, but the perception is leading that way. Perception will also be the key to getting out of this. Reports that virus cases are slowing dramatically in China are the first step towards resolving this situation. Perception is key. How many people in the US have died from COVID-19? 52 people have died in Baltimore this year so far due to homicide. Do we hear about that?

 

[Amkeer]

Market was way overbought and due to correct. That has been known for sometime now. The market has been going with this trend since 2009. That is a long uptrend. A reason to sell was what the market was looking for and once that happens it sets off an avalanche like we saw.

 

[gman2304]

The market needed a correction. It's been on fire for over 3 years! Still way up over 2016 and should continue growing at a robust pace until at least November of 2020. Expect some volatility, with a number of corrections over the next few years, but many analysts are predicting a bull market with historic growth through 2024!