2024 Solar Production and Cost Avoidance

[UncleDave]

Solar gets brought up a lot so I thought I would show a scenario where it works quite well with a no brainer ROI.
I dont pretend, and never said this works like this everywhere, so I want to quash that before it even starts.

This was an 8KW system installed in late 23 under a nem 2.0 contract.
Most aren't aware ANY grid tied solar installation in california forces you to sign a contract with your local power company.

The price of this system netted out to 20K.

2024 was the first full year of irrigating my property putting my productivity just under my actual use.
The enphase software gets its pricing from a preset that mirrors my actual NEM contract showing the 12.6 MWh generated equal to 5,100.00 in 2022 when it was installed. It's within a % or 2 from the actual bill.

Using todays pricing the 12.6 MWh would be and average of .53C per kWh equaling 6,678 dollars of productivity in 24.

Ignoring the first quarter year of use the payback look like this for me.

23 5,100
24 6,678
25 6,678 (this rate will raise again but lets used a fixed number from 24)
26 6,678 (this rate will be even higher so Ill use a fixed number from 24)

This investment will be net cash positive in well under 4 years and avoiding at minimum a 550 dollar a month bill for the next 17 years.

I can add another 1KW to the existing system, and expand past that as much as Id like after that with " non export" based productivity.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Plus the joy of giving the finger to PG&E.

 

[OneLonelyBurrito]

The enphase software gets its pricing from a preset that mirrors my actual NEM contract showing the 12.6 MW generated equal to 5,100.00 in 2022 when it was installed. It's within a % or 2 from the actual bill.

Using todays pricing the 12.6 MW would be and average of .53C per KWH equaling 6,678 dollars of productivity in 24.

This is gonna be a nick-picky but I was getting confused on initial read through, so I thought I would point it out. You're using MW instead of MWh.

Based on the numbers you have listed your solar has a capacity factor of just under 18% utilization, which seem seems pretty good for roof top solar. My neighbor has a good sized roof top solar system, and I have been meaning to ask him about it since I live in a place that would probably not pan out given how cloudy it is and general lack of power from the sun during the winter months.

 

[UncleDave]

This is gonna be a nick-picky but I was getting confused on initial read through, so I thought I would point it out. You're using MW instead of MWh.

Based on the numbers you have listed your solar has a capacity factor of just under 18% utilization, which seem seems pretty good for roof top solar. My neighbor has a good sized roof top solar system, and I have been meaning to ask him about it since I live in a place that would probably not pan out given how cloudy it is and general lack of power from the sun during the winter months.

MWh would be more accurate, and I should have included the small h. (I'll go back and tweak for clarity)

Im so old I used to have to pay by the letter for advertising, and I've never kicked the habit of contracting whenever possible.

The house has quite good orientation and inclination, combined with good hardware makes for an efficient roof.

As you know, East coast solar payback is usually a much different deal between what you pay of energy, and what the yearly cloud cover is.

What I have here is a near perfect combo of yearly available sunshine, and ultra high electricity prices.

 

[97prizm]

Solar gets brought up a lot so I thought I would show a scenario where it works quite well with a no brainer ROI.
I dont pretend, and never said this works like this everywhere, so I want to quash that before it even starts.

This was an 8KW system installed in late 23 under a nem 2.0 contract.
Most aren't aware ANY grid tied solar installation in california forces you to sign a contract with your local power company.

The price of this system netted out to 20K.

2024 was the first full year of irrigating my property putting my productivity just under my actual use.
The enphase software gets its pricing from a preset that mirrors my actual NEM contract showing the 12.6 MWh generated equal to 5,100.00 in 2022 when it was installed. It's within a % or 2 from the actual bill.

Using todays pricing the 12.6 MWh would be and average of .53C per kWh equaling 6,678 dollars of productivity in 24.

Ignoring the first quarter year of use the payback look like this for me.

23 5,100
24 6,678
25 6,678 (this rate will raise again but lets used a fixed number from 24)
26 6,678 (this rate will be even higher so Ill use a fixed number from 24)

This investment will be net cash positive in well under 4 years and avoiding at minimum a 550 dollar a month bill for the next 17 years.

I can add another 1KW to the existing system, and expand past that as much as Id like after that with " non export" based productivity.


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View attachment 258367

What's the predicted lifespan of your solar panels, and the warranty? Second as they age how much does electricity production drop off?

 

[UncleDave]

What's the predicted lifespan of your solar panels, and the warranty? Second as they age how much does electricity production drop off?

25 year warranty, with a 25 year guarantee of 86% of original performance.

The enphase inverters are 25 years from activation date, the system controller is 10, the gateways and consumption transformers is 5.

 

[JeffKeryk]

What I have here is a near perfect combo of yearly available sunshine, and ultra high electricity prices.

Biggest no brainier on the planet. My neighbors continue to put up solar, even though they are on NEM3.
In my case, well sometimes you get lucky.

 

[OVERKILL]

Biggest no brainier on the planet. My neighbors continue to put up solar, even though they are on NEM3.
In my case, well sometimes you get lucky.

NEM 3 definitely doesn't have the payback of 1 and 2. Are they paired with batteries?

 

[JeffKeryk]

NEM 3 definitely doesn't have the payback of 1 and 2. Are they paired with batteries?

Typically yes. Tesla batteries to be specific.

Personally, I don't understand why people drug their heels during NEM2. With all the competition, especially Sunrun through Costco, it was at worst a 5 year break even point. I am a fiscal conservative (aka cheapskate) but the numbers were compelling.

 

[alarmguy]

Solar gets brought up a lot so I thought I would show a scenario where it works quite well with a no brainer ROI.
I dont pretend, and never said this works like this everywhere, so I want to quash that before it even starts.

This was an 8KW system installed in late 23 under a nem 2.0 contract.
Most aren't aware ANY grid tied solar installation in california forces you to sign a contract with your local power company.

The price of this system netted out to 20K.

2024 was the first full year of irrigating my property putting my productivity just under my actual use.
The enphase software gets its pricing from a preset that mirrors my actual NEM contract showing the 12.6 MWh generated equal to 5,100.00 in 2022 when it was installed. It's within a % or 2 from the actual bill.

Using todays pricing the 12.6 MWh would be and average of .53C per kWh equaling 6,678 dollars of productivity in 24.

Ignoring the first quarter year of use the payback look like this for me.

23 5,100
24 6,678
25 6,678 (this rate will raise again but lets used a fixed number from 24)
26 6,678 (this rate will be even higher so Ill use a fixed number from 24)

This investment will be net cash positive in well under 4 years and avoiding at minimum a 550 dollar a month bill for the next 17 years.

I can add another 1KW to the existing system, and expand past that as much as Id like after that with " non export" based productivity.


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View attachment 258367

Defiantly seems worth it if you're going to stay more than 5 years. By the looks of your home you will (VERY nice)
Off the top of my head (literally) it would take 20 years using your numbers to break even on the East Coast of NC in our house.
We pay, as you know 10 cents kWh. So I just used your 53 cents kWh that you pay and multiplied by 5. Im sure there must be more to it than that. But energy so cheap here it just wouldnt be worth it. Current electric bill for month of Dec with electric heat pump, electric oven and electric dryer was $150 some people pay more than that to watch TV

Good post though, If I lived over there I would be having a ball with a solar system, as you know I love all things electronics and I LOVE beating the "system" and many times the public in general when it comes to costs.
I would love to have just to have a couple panels and watch the sun supplement the electricity when we are using the heat pump/AC and the electronics involved. Heck we may end up with really stupid cheap bills, our electric co-op pays back 100% retail for excess energy meaning 10cents a kWh
Thing is, the stuff is still too expensive for me and who knows how long I will live or if we buy another home one day, even though this one is only two years old. One can say we already are saving over the last 16 year old home because it is a super efficient new home.

 

[UncleDave]

Defiantly seems worth it if you're going to stay more than 5 years. By the looks of your home you will (VERY nice)
Off the top of my head (literally) it would take 20 years using your numbers to break even on the East Coast of NC in our house.
We pay, as you know 10 cents kWh. So I just used your 53 cents kWh that you pay and multiplied by 5. Im sure there must be more to it than that. But energy so cheap here it just wouldnt be worth it. Current electric bill for month of Dec with electric heat pump, electric oven and electric dryer was $150 some people pay more than that to watch TV

Good post though, If I lived over there I would be having a ball with a solar system, as you know I love all things electronics and I LOVE beating the "system" and many times the public in general when it comes to costs.
I would love to have just to have a couple panels and watch the sun supplement the electricity when we are using the heat pump/AC and the electronics involved. Heck we may end up with really stupid cheap bills, our electric co-op pays back 100% retail for excess energy meaning 10cents a kWh
Thing is, the stuff is still too expensive for me and who knows how long I will live or if we buy another home one day, even though this one is only two years old. One can say we already are saving over the last 16 year old home because it is a super efficient new home.

Thanks AG. We love the home.
We put big money into efficiency livability and cosmetic upgrades.
The place is performing beautifully in the summer and winter and is a joy to live in.

At .10c a KWh I wouldn't bother with any solar either, my total bill would be 1,311 a year in this case.
I really miss the days of utilities being benevolent entities, or at least reasonable ones.
The Canadians seem to do the best job on the front but the East coast operators are holding your prices at fair levels.

It totally burns me that I have to invest in something like this to live at a reasonable cost, but I was pushed into this corner.
I dont make the game, I'm just a player, but given the man is trying to flex on me - I'm going to flex back when and where I can.
If I croak early my wife can actually afford to live here in comfort without worrying about heat/ cooling vs. paying for food.

Your place seems pretty sweet a as well, efficient, and affordable to live in comfortably.
I hope you and Mrs AG enjoy it in great health with your family.

 

[alarmguy]

Thanks AG. We love the home.
We put big money into efficiency livability and cosmetic upgrades.
The place is performing beautifully in the summer and winter and is a joy to live in.

At .10c a KWh I wouldn't bother with any solar either, my total bill would be 1,311 a year in this case.
I really miss the days of utilities being benevolent entities, or at least reasonable ones.
The Canadians seem to do the best job on the front but the East coast operators are holding your prices at fair levels.

It totally burns me that I have to invest in something like this to live at a reasonable cost, but I was pushed into this corner.
I dont make the game, I'm just a player, but given the man is trying to flex on me - I'm going to flex back when and where I can.
If I croak early my wife can actually afford to live here in comfort without worrying about heat/ cooling vs. paying for food.

Your place seems pretty sweet a as well, efficient, and affordable to live in comfortably.
I hope you and Mrs AG enjoy it in great health with your family.

You certainly have a nice place there. Great shot from a drone.

 

[alarmguy]

You certainly have a nice place there. Great shot from a drone.

BTW - Remembering your multi sensor thermometer. I got this one. More basic than your color screen (Accurate) but what caught my attention was the reviews on accuracy. It has 3 remote sensors and one built in. Right now I have the remotes in the bedrooms. On the back there are pushbuttons to set alarms and also high and low temps. I haven't tried those yet.

Overall the "plastics" as well as the color (which you cant tell by the photo) feel Apple like quality and the display though black and white is crisp. It comes with a USB cord if you want the display lit all the time, on battery power you touch the "light" symbol at the top.

As far as accurate, I was impressed when all the sensors are in one room all 4 temp readings match up from all the sensors. The only variations will be the 1/10s degrees. but none a full degree off which honestly I find amazing. I never had a thermometer with a remote sensor that ALMOST perfectly matched the built in sensor or other remote sensors. The Humidity sensor readings can vary wildly though, would be nice if they didnt but not overly important to me.

 

[UncleDave]

BTW - Remembering your multi sensor thermometer. I got this one. More basic than your color screen (Accurate) but what caught my attention was the reviews on accuracy. It has 3 remote sensors and one built in. Right now I have the remotes in the bedrooms. On the back there are pushbuttons to set alarms and also high and low temps. I haven't tried those yet.

Overall the "plastics" as well as the color (which you cant tell by the photo) feel Apple like quality and the display though black and white is crisp. It comes with a USB cord if you want the display lit all the time, on battery power you touch the "light" symbol at the top.

As far as accurate, I was impressed when all the sensors are in one room all 4 temp readings match up from all the sensors. The only variations will be the 1/10s degrees. but none a full degree off which honestly I find amazing. I never had a thermometer with a remote sensor that ALMOST perfectly matched the built in sensor or other remote sensors. The Humidity sensor readings can vary wildly though, would be nice if they didnt but not overly important to me.

Nice. The colored screen on mine is just an overlay.

I do like the accu rite allows you to label the sensor location (even if it is the worlds lamest UI)
The weather display on mine is basically useless, reminds me of the Indian weather rock.
I suppose barometric rising or falling could be useful.

I like this display form factor - what the size of the sensors?
Is the house symbol basically the head unit - or is there a separate sensor for the head unit?
What do the faces represent?


My sensors are starting to crap out on me after ten years so I have to figure out if I replace them, or just upgrade the whole unit so you posting this

 

[alarmguy]

Nice. The colored screen on mine is just an overlay.

I do like the accu rite allows you to label the sensor location (even if it is the worlds lamest UI)
The weather display on mine is basically useless, reminds me of the Indian weather rock.
I suppose barometric rising or falling could be useful.

I like this display form factor - what the size of the sensors?
Is the house symbol basically the head unit - or is there a separate sensor for the head unit?
What do the faces represent?


My sensors are starting to crap out on me after ten years so I have to figure out if I replace them, or just upgrade the whole unit so you posting this

1. Right now I have a sensor (1, 2, 3) in each of the 3 bedrooms. I was working on balancing the heat pump air flow. I got it down pretty good now.
2. The house symbol is the head unit temperature
3. Good question! I dont know what the faces represent, Ill have to find the book. It was around Christmas time, took it out of the box and put the batteries in.
4. Sensor size is pretty much the same as Acurite size but has a neat little red LED that flashes every once in a while when it's transmitting an update to the head unit. 1.5 x 5.25 inches

Also I haven't used the buttons on the back yet