I predict that the whole GF-6/LSPI/Ca vs Mg thing is going to get very, very messy...
First off, if they ever finalise this LSPI test and like all the R&D studies, it says, Ca is a no-go, then you immediately trigger a global Mg Sulphonate supply crisis. The industry metal on the ground was predominantly designed and built to make Ca detergents. In theory, a detergent plant can be flipped (I seem to recall several Mg plants were converted to make Ca in the very early '80s) but engineering-wise, it's probably trickier than you think. I may be wrong, but my recollection is that not all of the major AddCo's have Mg in-house so what do they do?
Second, if GF-6 does end up predominantly Mg-based, how on Earth can you honestly make the 'backwards compatibility' argument than underpins the almost overnight switch in commercial oils-on-shelves that's always happened in the US? You probably need to go back several decades to find a mainstream US PCMO that's based on Mg! I'm personally a big fan of Mg but it's not without it's own historical baggage (Ford Tornado bore glazing, water sensitivity and Banned In Japan to name a few). Backwards compatibility should already be a major concern because of the way the new Seq IIIH test has been frigged to stop oil evaporative loss. How can people say this test equates to the old Seq IIIG with mineral oils when it's clear as day that it's a far easier test to pass?
Third, if the US market goes Mg, then expect a huge 'Why on earth are we doing this backlash?'. LSPI is all about broken piston lands on turbocharged direct injection engines. Okay, every knows there are instances of this but the risks of this happening are miniscule. These engines are with us NOW in huge numbers and almost all of them are running today on Ca-based oils. Where are the piled up corpses of dead engines to justify such a radical shift in oil formulation?
I'm watching the unfolding scene with eager anticipation!