You’ll never see $70 oil again.

its weird, a site talking about oil, censors me for facts all the time. oil is political, there is no separation, when russia attacked ukraine, gas went crazy, oil from ukraine is 0.022% of the world's total oil reserves, i was paying way more for gas 4 years ago
 
when russia attacked ukraine, gas went crazy, oil from ukraine is 0.022% of the world's total oil reserves, i was paying way more for gas 4 years ago
Russia was the third largest producer of oil in 2022 behind Saudi Arabia and the US. The removal of this Russian oil from the market through sanctions drove up prices to the levels you noted in 2022.
 
Russia was the third largest producer of oil in 2022 behind Saudi Arabia and the US. The removal of this Russian oil from the market through sanctions drove up prices to the levels you noted in 2022.
Western companies leaving started an instant decline.
There is a huge amount of US and Euro equipment there - and much was under western O&M contracts …
 
Everybody remembers cheap gas, cheap cars, and cheap rent. Everyone also forgets the cheap wages that accompanied all of it.
Proportionally though, more people had more discretionary income, on average?
The two biggest purchases have gone up quite a bit, housing and vehicles.


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Below is from a Gemini AI query, but seems to use credible sources.

The breakdown below tracks U.S. Real Median Household Income (adjusted for inflation) alongside Average Annual Vehicle Repair/Maintenance Costs per household. https://www.aftermarketmatters.com/national-news/u-s-vehicle-owners-face-mounting-maintenance-costs/


Historical Comparison: Repair Cost vs. Median Income

Year [1, 2, 3, 4]Real Median Household IncomeAvg. Annual Vehicle Repair Cost% of Income Spent on Repairs
2026 (Est.)$84,900$1,2501.47%
2024$83,730$1,2001.43%
2022$79,500$1,1601.46%
2019$81,580$9201.13%
2012$69,100$5370.78%
2004$54,453$4080.75%

Key Trends Driving the Shift
  • The Percentage Has Doubled: In the early 2000s, families spent under 0.8% of their income on mechanical repairs. Today, that financial burden takes up nearly 1.5% of a household's annual earnings. [, 2]
I know personally, the costs of our sports/travel/entertainment activities have gone up dramatically since 2018, many nearly doubling and our income hasn't matched that pace. We are in our late 40's, but in our early 20's we were fortunate to have cheap rent, cheap simple used cars, and be able to save enough in a couple years to buy our big chunk of land and build our house 20 years ago, for about 2.5 times our yearly income, with only $50k line of credit, no mortgage at all. We certainly couldn't do that now.
 
The Spot price you see posted everywhere can go up and down quickly based on even local events. ie if a pipeline goes down for maintenance the spot price goes up, for example. You might recall that during the pandemic the near term price went negative briefly. People were paying others to take there oil because they had nowhere to store it.

You want to watch the futures market. You can watch it here. For example April 2027 is already at $70.62 / barrel and falling. Oil companies use this to determine whether to produce more oil / drill more wells. Its why no one is drilling more wells - the future price is predicted to be too low. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html
 
It’s interesting that the price is dropping so fast considering Hormuz is still plugged and the “agreement” that nobody has seen is just a 60 day “ framework”. Can’t say more just yet.
I agree with what you’re saying but it just shows how fast this can change. Eventually the geopolitical risks are solved and we’re back to cheap oil. Next week or next year - hard to say, but will happen.
 
I agree with what you’re saying but it just shows how fast this can change. Eventually the geopolitical risks are solved and we’re back to cheap oil. Next week or next year - hard to say, but will happen.
And necessity being what it is to invention - there will be some new ways coming to minimize the risk of the choke point …
 
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