Seeing a lot of fear lately, the unknown and unknowable has many on edge. This will pass.
You’ll never see $70 oil again.
- Thread starter Snagglefoot
- Start date
I've actually seen the refinery on the south end of Aruba. It refined Venezuelan crude into fuel used by the Allies during WW2.
As of the week of March 13 there were 586 rigs drilling in the USA, most just to keep production from declining. This includes rigs drilling for both oil and natural gas. Whether a company makes extra cash off the present price depends on how much production is hedged and how much is spot.
Exxon Mobil’s first quarter results will be out in April and the results for the upstream will be large number but down from a year ago. I imagine the rig count will increase while prices hold but everyone is saying this will be over soon so it might be muted. We’ll see.
Exxon Mobil’s first quarter results will be out in April and the results for the upstream will be large number but down from a year ago. I imagine the rig count will increase while prices hold but everyone is saying this will be over soon so it might be muted. We’ll see.
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This ^^^
About $6 a gallon here. But electricity is $0.60/kwh. And registration, insurance, price of maintenance items like tires, and labor rates at shops continue to increase. So no matter where you are or what you drive, the cost is going up, up, up.
As a whole so is the stock market if you’re savvy and invest long term.
But what isn’t going up is wages. Sure, you can make $$$,$$$,$$$ in annual compensation if you’re at the very top, even without any college, but that’s not the norm.
I know many talented, intelligent, educated people that have it very rough in the job market right now. Either stagnant wages or losing their job and burning through their savings while looking for anything else…
It’ll be interesting. It’s not all doom and gloom though.
You can lease a Model 3 for $300/months that outperforms super cars from 20 years ago and for another $100 it’ll drive itself while you enjoy the scenery.
You can lose control of your 2024 Prologue, end up going off the road at highway speeds, hit a massive boulder, end up flipped on the side, and crawl out of the sunroof completely unharmed. Gas might have been $1.21 a gallon in 1995 but in a 1995 car I’d be dead.
You can vibe coding a working web app with a $40/mo copilot subscription. Will it be perfect and work on the first shot? No but you can whip up an MVP to see if someone likes it and refine it once you’ve made the business case for your project.
For $15/months you can get unlimited data on your phone… which has more computing power than what we went to the moon with.
You can take a 100 page excel spreadsheet and throw it into your favorite AI service and have it analyzed in 10 seconds. Sure, you have to verify… but it’s a massive time saver.
We shall see what the future holds. In the meantime, get in your car and visit your friends and family regardless of how much gas costs because that’s what matters.
As a whole so is the stock market if you’re savvy and invest long term.
But what isn’t going up is wages. Sure, you can make $$$,$$$,$$$ in annual compensation if you’re at the very top, even without any college, but that’s not the norm.
I know many talented, intelligent, educated people that have it very rough in the job market right now. Either stagnant wages or losing their job and burning through their savings while looking for anything else…
It’ll be interesting. It’s not all doom and gloom though.
You can lease a Model 3 for $300/months that outperforms super cars from 20 years ago and for another $100 it’ll drive itself while you enjoy the scenery.
You can lose control of your 2024 Prologue, end up going off the road at highway speeds, hit a massive boulder, end up flipped on the side, and crawl out of the sunroof completely unharmed. Gas might have been $1.21 a gallon in 1995 but in a 1995 car I’d be dead.
You can vibe coding a working web app with a $40/mo copilot subscription. Will it be perfect and work on the first shot? No but you can whip up an MVP to see if someone likes it and refine it once you’ve made the business case for your project.
For $15/months you can get unlimited data on your phone… which has more computing power than what we went to the moon with.
You can take a 100 page excel spreadsheet and throw it into your favorite AI service and have it analyzed in 10 seconds. Sure, you have to verify… but it’s a massive time saver.
We shall see what the future holds. In the meantime, get in your car and visit your friends and family regardless of how much gas costs because that’s what matters.
Those in the know are saying it will take 10 years to restore the production and refining capacity that have been destroyed so far. Oil refineries don't get built or rebuilt over night.
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I know nothing, but I call BS on those in the know. At least the ones mentioned above.
After the 1st Gulf War Kuwait's oil production was destroyed. Everything was sacked, burnt, obliterated. It took 9 months just to extinguish the wells that Saddam had set on fire. They recovered to pre-invasion production in less than four years (of which almost one was lost to just put the fires out).
Iran's production facilities today are largely unaffected. Distribution is choked up. But even if all their oil disappears overnight, they amount for about 4% of global production. Kuwait amounted for 3.5% back in the time but in relative terms it accounted for double that as supply was less diversified back then.
Even if Iran's whole oil reserves get transformed into caramels overnight, it will be tough luck for them is all.
After the 1st Gulf War Kuwait's oil production was destroyed. Everything was sacked, burnt, obliterated. It took 9 months just to extinguish the wells that Saddam had set on fire. They recovered to pre-invasion production in less than four years (of which almost one was lost to just put the fires out).
Iran's production facilities today are largely unaffected. Distribution is choked up. But even if all their oil disappears overnight, they amount for about 4% of global production. Kuwait amounted for 3.5% back in the time but in relative terms it accounted for double that as supply was less diversified back then.
Even if Iran's whole oil reserves get transformed into caramels overnight, it will be tough luck for them is all.
Anyone going to acknowledge that with all the petroleum/gas infrastructure that was blown up around the Middle East yesterday we are in the biggest energy crisis in history already? Things were destroyed that will take years to rebuild. Buckle up buttercups, we’re in for a bumpy ride.
Rechecked number. It’s 553.
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What things, and whose things? Who will spend years rebuilding them?
Glad we're keeping up on current events. Here are the things blown up. Who cares who will spend years rebuilding them - they are currently gone and supply is greatly diminished.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/...y-sites-after-israel-struck-its-key-gas-field
When (we/someone/) say(s) that the U.S. is a net exporter of oil, what they/we are actually talking about is finished petroleum products. There are two stages to oil production. One is: The raw crude oil, you take out of the ground, and then that crude oil is refined into products like gasoline, like diesel, like plastics, which then are used—gasoline, obviously, is what you fill up your car with at the pump. And the U.S., while it is a net exporter of those finished products, it is a net importer of the crude oil itself.
Also, there are multiple types of crude oil. The shale revolution in the U.S., which started in the early 2000s, which was the discovery of a lot of, basically, oil across the Gulf of the country, basically produces a type of oil that experts call “sweet light crude,” which is this thinner oil and this much lighter oil. But a lot of American refineries that process that oil were created before the shale revolution. They’re primarily set up to process the kind of what is called “heavy sour crude” that comes primarily now from other places.
And so what the U.S. basically does is: import a lot of heavy sour crude from other places, and export a lot of our own sweet light crude to other places, and then US does a lot of that refining here, which goes into finished products. And so, yes, US is technically a net exporter, but we are inextricably connected to the rest of the global market, such that when the price of a barrel of oil goes up because of a disruption elsewhere, it also goes up here.
Also, there are multiple types of crude oil. The shale revolution in the U.S., which started in the early 2000s, which was the discovery of a lot of, basically, oil across the Gulf of the country, basically produces a type of oil that experts call “sweet light crude,” which is this thinner oil and this much lighter oil. But a lot of American refineries that process that oil were created before the shale revolution. They’re primarily set up to process the kind of what is called “heavy sour crude” that comes primarily now from other places.
And so what the U.S. basically does is: import a lot of heavy sour crude from other places, and export a lot of our own sweet light crude to other places, and then US does a lot of that refining here, which goes into finished products. And so, yes, US is technically a net exporter, but we are inextricably connected to the rest of the global market, such that when the price of a barrel of oil goes up because of a disruption elsewhere, it also goes up here.
I’ve been making this argument here for years because it reflects reality, even if people resisted it. Current events make it much harder to deny - the U.S. may be the world’s largest oil producer, but disruptions in the Middle East still drive up prices here because we are tied to the global oil market. “Drill, baby, drill” was never a complete solution to our energy problems, because oil prices are shaped by a global market, not just domestic production. “Drill, baby, drill” was always a political slogan, not a serious solution to America’s energy vulnerabilities.
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Thanks. So, from that article:
...SAMREF refinery in the Red Sea port city of Yanbu was hit...
...extensive damage was caused by Iranian missiles hitting the Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas facility...
...Damage to the facility could delay Qatar's ability to get supplies to the market even after the war ends...
Not mentioned what damage, how extensive, and how long the delay is. Don't see "years" mentioned.
Even if those take years to rebuild (which is not mentioned anywhere in that article), actually - even if those are NEVER rebuilt - what is their part in the global supply? Does all the world oil go through them? 50% ? 10%? 5%?
Your local Walmart burned. You might never see it rebuilt or it could take years. You're still not going to starve or run out of new socks.
WTI is $95, Brent is $110 and I have seen some blends in the ME and Asia going for $170. Russian "oil on water" - or oil that was already sitting in sanctioned tankers, was bid up to double as soon as the Russian sanctions were lifted. So yes our oil would go up, but were not short. The spread has to do with the shortage in Asia. Asian and Euro buyers are paying more for us to export it there.
Like I said, our markets are pricing in an export ban which is likely coming if this continues. So yes, had the western hemisphere decoupled from the ME 20 years ago this would be a non event.
Our oil policy has been a giant farce my entire life. We should have decoupled the western hemisphere from the ME decades ago. Instead we decided we would go EV. How is that going to work - nat gas produces 40% of our electricity. Maybe we could return to coal.
Maybe we get straightened out this time. I doubt it though.
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Unlike the 1970s this is not about oil drying up it's about risk costs and logistics right now....
Much panic and uncertainty as well.
In my area the price has flattened currently.
In no way am I underestimating the pain it brings...We have always been on a energy roller-coaster unfortunately.
Much panic and uncertainty as well.
In my area the price has flattened currently.
In no way am I underestimating the pain it brings...We have always been on a energy roller-coaster unfortunately.
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