You’ll never see $70 oil again.

This is a good point so many miss.
In a summary all the beginner frackers merged or went bankrupt, and merged again so there was some consolidation
and learned hard lessons which affects their current actions.

I know in my area there was about 5x merger/bankrupt/buyout consolidation in 8 years.
and a few more before that.

Here is one of the big ones who totally exited the local area
https://www.reuters.com/article/bus...and-shifts-back-to-natural-gas-idUSKBN2A92Z6/

here is the current big player
https://investors.eogresources.com/...mier-Utica-Asset-Increases-Regular-Dividend-5
 
In a summary all the beginner frackers merged or went bankrupt, and merged again so there was some consolidation
and learned hard lessons which affects their current actions.

I know in my area there was about 5x merger/bankrupt/buyout consolidation in 8 years.
Even the rate at which they pump a well is highly controlled to maximize total well output over time. They pump them slower than the maximum rate because they will produce more over time. These companies want to maximize returns for shareholders - that is it!
 
This is a good point so many miss. The "Drill baby drill" is the answer to lowering gas prices is so flawed because it assumes all these companies only want to maximize production. They want to maximize profits. ALL petroleum companies have excellent discipline and they will simply not produce oil/gas when prices are low and wait to sell it when prices are higher. Lowering gas prices for Americans isn't their objective and it never has been. We've been sold the idea that production capacity is the limiting factor when the truth is price is the limiting factor and for a given production level (the part oil companies can control) the only thing that will increase price to make selling more profitable are disruptions to supply elsewhere or more demand - drill baby drill doesn't address either of those issues.
You mean it's not a charity? I've been lied to all these years! /S
 
I’ll go out on a limb and counter the idea that “ things will get back to normal”. The US oil industry will not go back and drill for $70 oil. Harold Hamm set the tone when Continental stopped drilling for $60 oil in North Dakota earlier this year.

I will say I was wrong if it goes back, but let’s see.
I wonder how many lenders will be willing to finance these projects and under what terms.
 
Most production rates are regulated in the US. A new well owner submits test rates to the regulator to get allowable reservoir management numbers - resource preservation and environmental concerns are the drivers behind the limits.
(Mitigates saltwater and sand production) …
 
You mean it's not a charity? I've been lied to all these years! /S
Do you remember this conversation HERE three years ago? The prevailing BITOG opinion at the time was the one thing standing between us and $1.00 gas was the (lack of) approval process in the US. I made the same arguments about global markets setting prices, refinery differences/capacities, the "energy independence con", and profit-driven decisions three years ago and encountered nothing but resistance. Many here thought US oil companies were a charity who take their instructions from one particular person in the executive branch.
 
Last edited:
Do you remember this conversation HERE three years ago? The prevailing BITOG opinion at the time was the one thing standing between us and $1.00 gas was the (lack of) approval process in the US. I made the same arguments about global markets setting prices, refinery differences/capacities, the "energy independence con", and profit-driven decisions three years ago and encountered nothing but resistance. Many here thought US oil companies were a charity who take their instructions from one particular person in the executive branch.
Ya. I've said similar things many times myself. Next thing we're going to hear is people advocating for price controls on gas/diesel.
 
I think that’s a pretty bold statement considering how much this industry fluctuates and we have no idea what the future holds.

One thing I will say however in regards to oil prices, it seems like people don’t factor in inflation with oil prices. Most think of the oil price 5,10,15,20 years ago and believe that number to mean the same thing today.

$50 oil in 2000 is about $94 today…
 
You mean it's not a charity? I've been lied to all these years! /S
It is amazing to me how many people think American oil is American oil. Or that big oil is our friend. Big oil is a for-profit business.
The world runs on oil; they have us by the short hairs.

Basic Economics teaches us the best way for the market to effectively lower prices is to find a lower cost viable alternative. A viable alternative drives competition and reduces the product's monopoly power position.
 
I think that’s a pretty bold statement considering how much this industry fluctuates and we have no idea what the future holds.

One thing I will say however in regards to oil prices, it seems like people don’t factor in inflation with oil prices. Most think of the oil price 5,10,15,20 years ago and believe that number to mean the same thing today.

$50 oil in 2000 is about $94 today…
Yes, if you got $50 for a bbl in 2000, you better get $94 today. Instead, Harold Hamm at Continental was getting $60, so he sent the drilling rigs home.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top Bottom