That was my first thought. EV demand may be down, but the market may be down in general, EV and ICE. As you state, everything's expensive now.
Wow, Tesla laying off more than 10% of its world wide workforce, two Top Executives leaving
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Interest rate is likely going to stay high for a bit longer to combat the higher than desired inflation. We have reduced probability of rate drop now, and the Israel / Iran situation likely causes shipping cost and oil price to increase for a longer time.
Tesla and most Elon companies are the kind of fast growth companies that need lots of capital infusion, expanding faster than organic growth with stock and bond sales kind of companies, the higher interest rate means they would not be growing as fast and they need to trim some fat to slow down.
Plus the higher electricity cost all over the world, possibly due to AI using up more electricity than before, means they won't grow as fast as before. Also China's economy collapse means they won't be buying as many Tesla as before for sure.
I do think the company will be fine in the long run, but slowing down is the right thing to do right now. Toyota is right to place their bets on hybrid, or plug in hybrid, as it is a much more versatile technology that can do well in all kinds of scenarios, in all economic conditions, and all energy prices.
Tesla and most Elon companies are the kind of fast growth companies that need lots of capital infusion, expanding faster than organic growth with stock and bond sales kind of companies, the higher interest rate means they would not be growing as fast and they need to trim some fat to slow down.
Plus the higher electricity cost all over the world, possibly due to AI using up more electricity than before, means they won't grow as fast as before. Also China's economy collapse means they won't be buying as many Tesla as before for sure.
I do think the company will be fine in the long run, but slowing down is the right thing to do right now. Toyota is right to place their bets on hybrid, or plug in hybrid, as it is a much more versatile technology that can do well in all kinds of scenarios, in all economic conditions, and all energy prices.
High tech is cyclical. Management has to make the hard decision to furlough for the short term, ask people to take accrued vacation or layoff. High tech is brutal.
In Tesla's case, they went from startup mode to rapid growth in a short period of time. The are building a factory in Monterrey, Mexico and talking with India for another.
I have no crystal ball; time will tell.
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People just don't want electric vehicles. Hybrid, yes. This past winter, people saw how electric vehicles are not what was expected.
This is probably the first wave.
How to lose in the auto industry:
1) Fail at making a mass market pickup truck that people want. I'm not talking about fedora hat nerds.
2) Cancel a mass market "affordable" vehicle (Model 2)
How to lose in the auto industry:
1) Fail at making a mass market pickup truck that people want. I'm not talking about fedora hat nerds.
2) Cancel a mass market "affordable" vehicle (Model 2)
There is such a thing in new tech as explosive mass adoption stage and then market levels off. Many examples - Internet, cell phones etc.
I once worked for a company that was growing very rapidly providing new tech in med field, joined them with ~400 staff and a year later we had ~800 staff, boom lasted about 3-4 years and then market saturated, very limited new sales and some upgrade and add-on sales. There were 2 waves of layoffs before I was let go too, 6 years after the start. They restructured, got acquired, acquired again, changed name 3 times or so...
I once worked for a company that was growing very rapidly providing new tech in med field, joined them with ~400 staff and a year later we had ~800 staff, boom lasted about 3-4 years and then market saturated, very limited new sales and some upgrade and add-on sales. There were 2 waves of layoffs before I was let go too, 6 years after the start. They restructured, got acquired, acquired again, changed name 3 times or so...
Yep. Fun to sit in on the quarterly report and hear that there's a bonus for last year's effort--and that furloughs aren't off the table. And no pay raise this year. Absolutely beats layoffs, those are no fun to sit through.
I remember one year getting my bonus the same week as I took a furlough week...
The articles I read said that "more than 10%" will amount to at least 14k layoffs, worldwide.
I tend to agree with the articles I have read, that suggest the problem with the current EV market isn't lack of interest in EV cars, but more about pricing of EV's. The market of those that are willing to pay $50k+ has started to get, not necessarily saturated, but more so stabilized. For the most part, those that want an EV bad enough to pay these prices have them, so now they are buying replacements.
Fewer government incentives for EV's in the higher price range hasn't helped the market either.
I think this is a spot on assessment for many of us. At least it is for me. I like the concept, and love some of the EV options out there, at least options other than Tesla. But I am still deeply rooted in the current culture of cars, where they can be kept on the road for decades, even becoming classic and antique models, that can be enjoyed for a very long time.
Current battery technology tends to make an EV feel more like an appliance.
I tend to agree with the articles I have read, that suggest the problem with the current EV market isn't lack of interest in EV cars, but more about pricing of EV's. The market of those that are willing to pay $50k+ has started to get, not necessarily saturated, but more so stabilized. For the most part, those that want an EV bad enough to pay these prices have them, so now they are buying replacements.
Fewer government incentives for EV's in the higher price range hasn't helped the market either.
I think this is a spot on assessment for many of us. At least it is for me. I like the concept, and love some of the EV options out there, at least options other than Tesla. But I am still deeply rooted in the current culture of cars, where they can be kept on the road for decades, even becoming classic and antique models, that can be enjoyed for a very long time.
Current battery technology tends to make an EV feel more like an appliance.
There is a ton of information out there for anybody who can use a search engine regarding first quarter USA 2024 auto sales.
US auto sales are considered strong for the first quarter of 2024 and the CEO of General Motors has indicated the same moving forward.
Up 5% overall and keep in mind GM/Ford had a relatively lengthy strike at the end of last year.
Electric vehicles sales are in the toilet compared to the previous year up 3% and Tesla sales are a train wreck
All this information is readily available.
@BHopkins mentions price of electric vehicles are a big problem and I agree.
In fact, General Motors just announced they will not be producing the more affordable base models of the Blazer and Hummer as well as maybe the equinox.
Electric vehicles are expensive to manufacture and almost impossible to bring to market in the USA with the luxuries we enjoy that come with ICA vehicles at a good price.
I also agree they are more like throwaway appliances. One use and the more miles you put on them significantly will affect the sale price because nobody’s going to replace a $15,000 battery
US auto sales are considered strong for the first quarter of 2024 and the CEO of General Motors has indicated the same moving forward.
Up 5% overall and keep in mind GM/Ford had a relatively lengthy strike at the end of last year.
Electric vehicles sales are in the toilet compared to the previous year up 3% and Tesla sales are a train wreck
All this information is readily available.
@BHopkins mentions price of electric vehicles are a big problem and I agree.
In fact, General Motors just announced they will not be producing the more affordable base models of the Blazer and Hummer as well as maybe the equinox.
Electric vehicles are expensive to manufacture and almost impossible to bring to market in the USA with the luxuries we enjoy that come with ICA vehicles at a good price.
I also agree they are more like throwaway appliances. One use and the more miles you put on them significantly will affect the sale price because nobody’s going to replace a $15,000 battery
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Car dealers overnight here it seems started renting overflow lots for excess inventory. GM and Ford may be doing well at the corporate level, but I think the dealers are starting to struggle. Kia/Hyundai is a mess here. There are multiple parking lots full of them in a couple of close by cities.Ford and GM ICE vehicles doing very well. GM took a bit of a hit on Fleet sales this year BUT says it was supply shortages from the strike. Regular Retail Sales for GM were up 6%. We will see.
I really think we already have an oversupply of EVs and they haven't even started to leave the "gate" yet. Too expensive and inconvenient for the masses in the USA. Overseas not so much but there are a lot of less expensive ones there.
Add to that China's economy is in shambles, much like ours except we are borrowing massive amounts of money pretending it's good. Massive is an understatement but I dont know another word.
The whole industry is about to take a bath on overpriced vehicles and ICE is far from exempt either.
Brobdingnagian is the word I usually use-unfortunately not many people know what it means!Add to that China's economy is in shambles, much like ours except we are borrowing massive amounts of money pretending it's good. Massive is an understatement but I dont know another word.
Massive and gigantic it is …( based on a fictional land in Gulliver travels occupied by Giants)
Human beings themselves as a majority have no self control and the smarter ones in-debit the majority for life in order to extract maximum profits.
Tesla needs some new models to stay competitive. Obvious choices would have been a pickup truck that looks like a F-150 or Tacoma, and an economy car.
I don't think the market is anywhere close to swinging back to economy cars-- ICE buyers have not shopped on the basis of mpg for a long time. That is not the reason why economy cars are still around. The reason is that an economy car offering is vital to getting buyers in the mood to buy *something* from your company. Once they get started it is easy to move them up to higher models. Every brand does this-- they say that the base model only exists to sell the others. They don't want to sell a lot of the base model. They'd rather hope that they don't, since the profit per car is smaller. But they still make them.
I don't think the market is anywhere close to swinging back to economy cars-- ICE buyers have not shopped on the basis of mpg for a long time. That is not the reason why economy cars are still around. The reason is that an economy car offering is vital to getting buyers in the mood to buy *something* from your company. Once they get started it is easy to move them up to higher models. Every brand does this-- they say that the base model only exists to sell the others. They don't want to sell a lot of the base model. They'd rather hope that they don't, since the profit per car is smaller. But they still make them.
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SammyChevelleTypeS3
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My youngest son will not stop bragging to me about his new battery power lawn mower!I think you got it, and think it's very likely that Hybrid is the future until something other than Lithium Battery EVs come along.
Only makes sense, Hybrid, you have the convenience and safety factor (of not getting stuck) with gasoline.
Think about that, sending your daughter upstate to a NYS college, what would you choose if only two options? EV or Hybrid?
Easy answer, you will be able to sleep at night knowing she isnt stuck some place if the car has a gasoline engine to rely on vs a dead EV battery. I think far too many people discount this thought. We are a country with a HUGE landmass. The prospects of getting stuck with no power in your lithium powered car is scary.
ok, got to cut the lawn, its 85 degrees, first cut of the year, and yes my lithium powered lawn mower is all charged up!
Darn it, not sure if the edger is...
We’re in our new home as we moved to the coast now that all the kids are grown and on their own.My youngest son will not stop bragging to me about his new battery power lawn mower!
I was on the fence about a lithium powered mower, but the reviews seemed good enough in places like consumer reports tests and comments on Lowe’s and Home Depot websites as well as Ace Hardware.
So we went for it and I’m very happy. It’s not a huge lot. The house is on a 60 x 150 property and the battery makes it each time.
I still have a little apprehension about battery life what will happen to three years down the road but will worry about that then. I really don’t have a lot of extra reserve by the time I’m done cutting and most times I don’t use the self-propelled feature, which would use even more energy. With that said for the size lot, it would probably just still be able to do it without running out.
Believe it or not the reason I don’t use self propelled mowing, the lawn to me is another chance to get a good 45 minute workout and one of the biggest surprises of an electric battery powered mower than a self-propelled gas is it so easy to push it’s like pushing a shopping cart ( only on thick grass) Another big benefit there is no heat coming off the engine because I’m someone who will cut the lawn when it’s 95° in the middle of the day
Oh and it’s much more quiet! The noise level is more like those old smoky lawn boy two cycle mowers
A little background on the type of grass cutting is we have a super lush and thick centipede grass so what I’m trying to say is it cuts a thick lawn for this size lot without running out of power using a recycling blade which takes a little bit more energy.
It also comes with two other blades that I don’t use and one of them is for more efficient energy usage
Right now, the convenience is awesome because I don’t have to store gasoline in the can anymore, I don’t have to change the oil or the spark plugs or pull the recoil.
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Just wait until the stock market pops and dealers/auction sites are flooded with thousands of 1-3 year old vehicles they can’t move.Ford and GM ICE vehicles doing very well. GM took a bit of a hit on Fleet sales this year BUT says it was supply shortages from the strike. Regular Retail Sales for GM were up 6%. We will see.
I really think we already have an oversupply of EVs and they haven't even started to leave the "gate" yet. Too expensive and inconvenient for the masses in the USA. Overseas not so much but there are a lot of less expensive ones there.
Add to that China's economy is in shambles, much like ours except we are borrowing massive amounts of money pretending it's good. Massive is an understatement but I dont know another word.
Nope, auto sales continue to grow. Up 5.1%, and that includes the affect of rapidly declining EV's - meaning ICE is up by more than that.
US first-quarter auto sales grew 5.1% despite high interest rates, but EV growth slows further
New vehicle sales in the U.S. rose 5.1% from January through March, as buyers stayed in the market despite high interest rates.
apnews.com
Markets are down again on Iran aggression, but Tesla is down 6%. If investors get the impression that super growth is over, the PE ration will take a dump.
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