Why do people strongly opine about topics they know nothing about?

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A further aspect of this is it is really hard to dislodge long-held beliefs lodged there by authoritative figures.
That's a good point. When someone above you says something is true, often we take them at their word. Starting when we were little, we had to trust in our parents and then our teachers. We were a long ways from being able to dig deep into topics and were stuck with trusting those authority figures. But at some point we need to review our teaching, our biases, and our blind spots. No easy task. IIRC that is what the Socratic method is about, getting people to answer their own questions, but even then, you have to have enough knowledge to start with, and in some fields, large amounts of memorization might be required (anatomy for example).

I had an elderly relative who refused to wear a seatbelt because she had heard stories about people trapped in cars. Well she managed to roll her car and she was launched from the vehicle and landed relatively unhurt compared to the totaled vehicle. In her 80s! Proved her point I guess.
Yikes! I bet there was no convincing her after that.
 
"You don't know what you don't know"

Dr Phil, 1986
Exactly. And that's why humility matters.

The irony is that the people most aware of how much they don't know are often the least likely to speak with absolute certainty. The more deeply you study a subject, the more you discover its complexity and the limits of your own understanding.

The problem isn't not knowing. None of us know everything. The problem is pretending to know things we haven't taken the time to understand.

"You don't know what you don't know" is a good argument for curiosity and caution, not confidence.
 
People knew the earth was flat until they didn't. People knew the sun moon and stars revolved around the earth until they didn't. All of the smart people declared it so; besides, the evidence seemed obvious. Declaring that "X is so and the case is closed because everything is known with absolute certainty" is very different from saying that "X is almost certainly true based on the evidence of which I am aware".
 
People knew the earth was flat until they didn't. People knew the sun moon and stars revolved around the earth until they didn't. All of the smart people declared it so; besides, the evidence seemed obvious. Declaring that "X is so and the case is closed because everything is known with absolute certainty" is very different from saying that "X is almost certainly true based on the evidence of which I am aware".
I don't think anyone here is arguing that the case is closed on anything.

The problem is that this argument gets used so often that it becomes a substitute for engaging with the actual evidence. Yes, people have been wrong before. Yes, scientific paradigms change. But the fact that some accepted ideas were overturned in the past does not mean any particular modern theory is likely wrong today.

People once believed the Earth was flat. They also once believed disease was caused by bad air. The lesson isn't "consensus is probably wrong." The lesson is that consensus should follow the evidence, and when better evidence emerges, theories change.

Ironically, heliocentrism didn't win because someone said, "Question everything." It won because it explained observations better than the competing model.

So I agree with your second statement: we should say that a model is supported by the evidence currently available, not that it is absolutely certain. That's exactly how science works.

Where I disagree is when people jump from "science isn't certain" to "therefore my alternative explanation deserves equal consideration." It doesn't. Alternative models have to do the same thing the current model does: explain the evidence, make successful predictions, and withstand scrutiny. That's the standard that replaced flat-Earth and geocentric models, and it's the same standard that applies today.
 
Where I disagree is when people jump from "science isn't certain" to "therefore my alternative explanation deserves equal consideration."

And to be clear, I am not doing that. Any suggestion that I am should not dimminish my point, with which you agree, the "model is supported by the evidence currently available, but it is not absolutely certain". Alternative explanations can't be ruled out when you don't even know what they are.
 
People once believed the Earth was flat. They also once believed disease was caused by bad air. The lesson isn't "consensus is probably wrong." The lesson is that consensus should follow the evidence, and when better evidence emerges, theories change.
Except we don't control the "evidence" and often there are external motives, and sometimes its just dumbed down for the masses. Its very topic specific. "trust the science" :ROFLMAO:

The Ancient Greeks knew the Earth was round, and proposed the Earth circled the sun (they had more trouble proving that one). Other "experts" changed it later.
 
Maybe, but my parrot 🦜 knows his stuff …
The others … well …
Green parrot only repeats what he hears. "Who's your daddy?" Does get old when I'm shooting pool at your house though.
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Except we don't control the "evidence" and often there are external motives, and sometimes its just dumbed down for the masses. Its very topic specific. "trust the science" :ROFLMAO:

The Ancient Greeks knew the Earth was round, and proposed the Earth circled the sun (they had more trouble proving that one). Other "experts" changed it later.

I forgot to throw some love at the "Follow the Science" crowd as well. Hilarious bunch. I mean I got the lawn sign and the bumper sticker, because I support science.

Sure you do. And they call others hypocrites at the drop of a hat.
 
Don't ask me about that part that I know about because I don't really understand it.

Green parrot only repeats what he hears. "Who's your daddy?" Does get old when I'm shooting pool at your house though.
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I forgot to throw some love at the "Follow the Science" crowd as well. Hilarious bunch. I mean I got the lawn sign and the bumper sticker, because I support science.

Sure you do. And they call others hypocrites at the drop of a hat.
This is science:

View recent photos.webp
 
It’s lonely at the top. Knowing everything isn’t what it’s cracked up to be. 🤣
 
One thing I've never understood is why people are so comfortable having strong opinions about subjects they've never seriously studied and in many cases even thought about.

[snip]

What causes this? Is it overconfidence? The internet rewarding certainty over curiosity? A distrust of expertise? Or have we simply lost the habit of saying, "I don't know enough about this to have an opinion yet"?

Smartest person in the room syndrome?
 
Stupid people don't know they are stupid.
To branch out on this, define stupidity.

It's more than a lack of mental horsepower. Some people are slow to learn but eventually learn something and are pretty good at it. If it's something that bores others, they may actually become an expert.

It's more than a lack of curiosity.

To me, it's a lack of judgement and pattern recognition. A lack of self-awareness makes it even worse.

Someone may be forced to decide between taking the advice of two different people. It's possible the advice of Person A is more palatable for an odd reason-- maybe Person A is a romantic interest. Ideally Person A has given advice before that worked out and the pattern recognition kicks in. Maybe Person B is in a position of power over the individual and the individual wants to prove independence, like with oppositional defiant disorder.

We all make mistakes. Stupid people don't recognize this and make the same mistakes over and over. We look at them from outside their miserable lives and declare them their own worst enemies.
 
Except we don't control the "evidence" and often there are external motives, and sometimes its just dumbed down for the masses. Its very topic specific. "trust the science" :ROFLMAO:

The Ancient Greeks knew the Earth was round, and proposed the Earth circled the sun (they had more trouble proving that one). Other "experts" changed it later.
I actually agree with part of what you're saying. There are certainly cases where incentives, politics, money, or simple human bias can influence how information is presented. That's why healthy skepticism is important. Where I think we differ is what conclusion to draw from that.

The fact that people can have motives doesn't mean we can dismiss evidence we don't like. If we're skeptical of one side because they may have an agenda, we should apply the same skepticism to the people challenging them. Otherwise we're just choosing which authority to trust.

And the Greek example is interesting because it reinforces my point rather than undermining it. Some Greeks figured out the Earth was round long before it became widely accepted. They weren't right because they were experts. They were right because they had better reasoning and evidence than their contemporaries. Eventually the consensus caught up to the evidence.

To me, that's how knowledge progresses. Not by rejecting expertise, and not by blindly trusting it, but by continuously testing ideas against reality. That's also why I've never liked the phrase "trust the science." Science isn't a thing you trust. It's a process. Scientists are human beings and can be wrong. The value comes from the fact that claims can be challenged, tested, replicated, and revised.

The real question isn't whether experts can be wrong. Of course they can. The question is what's the best method we have for separating what's true from what merely sounds convincing? Historically, the answer has been evidence, testing, and critical inquiry - science.
 
When someone without any real knowledge expresses an opinion regarding something in which you are a subject matter expert that is contrary to everything you've learned it is maddening.
We have this commonplace notion that everyone is entitled to an opinion, but are they really entitled to form opinions about things they have no experience or training in?
I along with everyone else must guard against forming opinions absent knowledge.
We can all learn, but only if we have the humility to admit that we do indeed have things to learn.
Experience is a powerful teacher. The only way I learned to work on my own cars was to do it, for example. There were good printed service manuals back in the day and there are abundant online resources today, but these can only aid one in learning how to perform a task. They are a starting point and are only guides to use in gaining experience. Your first engine teardown, clutch replacement or cylinder head removal will teach you all sorts of things, such as the importance of doing things correctly and avoiding shortcuts that will either end up having to be torn down yet again or bring disaster in operation. Careless work in replacing a timing belt will often bring disaster, for example.
I have zero experience in looking at the heavens, but I can learn as much as I care to through reading as well as considering the output of those with far more experience than I.
I can (and had to way back when) learn how to use calculus, even though there is no way that I could have devised it.
There is so much to learn and to know, but one can only appreciate that by keeping an open and curious mind, and that open mind may embrace things as disparate as organic gardening to jet transport design.
 
I'm an expert in another field. Written books on the subject. Numerous presentations. I worked in the business for decades. Etc. I hardly ever go to a social media forum on the subject because it is just constant bickering over the stupidest stuff that has been solved. Sure, new things come along from time to time that are worth considering and thinking about, but many people do not want to start with the basics and educate themselves. People just want to take the easy way out instead of putting in the work. They watch some YouTube videos and then get themselves in trouble.
 
I'm an expert in another field. Written books on the subject. Numerous presentations. I worked in the business for decades. Etc. I hardly ever go to a social media forum on the subject because it is just constant bickering over the stupidest stuff that has been solved. Sure, new things come along from time to time that are worth considering and thinking about, but many people do not want to start with the basics and educate themselves. People just want to take the easy way out instead of putting in the work. They watch some YouTube videos and then get themselves in trouble.
Truthfully, this is a topic I find fascinating and spend a fair amount of time thinking about. I'm interested in what motivates different belief systems, whether that's politics, religion, atheism, trust in institutions, or attitudes toward science and the scientific method.

The research I've encountered suggests that there may be broad psychological and even neurological differences in how people perceive and respond to the world. Some individuals appear to be more sensitive to threat, risk, and uncertainty, which can make them more attracted to stability, structure, and clear answers. Others seem more comfortable with ambiguity and uncertainty, and may place greater emphasis on empathy, openness, and exploration of new ideas.

Obviously these are general tendencies rather than rigid categories, and human beings are far more complex than any simple model. Still, I find it fascinating how our underlying psychology may influence the beliefs we ultimately adopt.
 
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