When will the combustion engine be obsolete?

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In 100 years people will be hoofing it. Personal transportation of any kind will be seen as wasteful and you'll have to use public transportation unless you have a special permit. You'll also need a permit to leave your designated zone.

The upside is people will be networked like the Borg.
 
Electric cars are unpractical, our Grid just can't handle that, along with AC's in the summer!

Toyota has "the future" in the 2018 TOYOTA MIRAI
 
Originally Posted By: Trav
Originally Posted By: KrisZ
Those that seek Utopia usually find misery. What's even worse is that during their noble quest they will cause misery to countless other innocent people that just want to go about their lives.


Imagine they want to get get rid of our horse and buggies for those new-fangled horseless carriages.

https://www.fastcompany.com/1174865/horseless-carriage-will-never-catch


Technological progress and utopian ideology are two different things.

The electrification, although has no tailpipe emission, causes a great deal of environmental damage, but that damage is being done elsware so that you can enjoy the utopia, well one version of it.
I certainly don't see being forced into one way of thinking as utopia.
 
Originally Posted By: Trav
I wish they would work on safer nuclear power, that would solve so many problems but unfortunately lobbying is legal (IMO it should be a felony punishable by imprisonment for bribing politicians like that) and the gas, oil and oil companies wont allow that to happen at any cost as long as 10c worth of oil is in the ground.
Fossil fuels are a horror that needs to be minimized. I am no environmental nut job but we do live in a polluted world and IMHO there is not need to add more to it than we really have to. No don't throw the A/C units out.
lol.gif



The problem isn't safer nuclear power, it basically boils down to the cost per megawatt. Basically the cost is too high relative to the other options out there like gas turbines, solar and wind.

It has nothing at all to do with lobbying by gas/oil companies. It's the economics itself that doesn't work. You need to borrow lots of money for years without any production and with cost overruns, it's the rate payers who end up stuck with higher bills. It's been true historically where areas that had nuclear power plants built got stuck with higher rates than others that didn't have them. There's no evil conspiracy when simple economics is the answer most of the time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_nuclear_power_plants
 
More than specifically getting rid of combustion engines, I'd like to see better public transport. I think in my area they are talking about extending some railways but of course thats going to take a long time. There are simply too many cars on the road and they can't expand roadways fast enough (or don't have the room for it). Its true that many modern cars are pretty efficient... but when sitting in traffic for an hour + everyday...
 
Originally Posted By: HemiHawk
More than specifically getting rid of combustion engines, I'd like to see better public transport. I think in my area they are talking about extending some railways but of course thats going to take a long time. There are simply too many cars on the road and they can't expand roadways fast enough (or don't have the room for it). Its true that many modern cars are pretty efficient... but when sitting in traffic for an hour + everyday...



A lot of the traffic would be alleviated if we could get some of the semis off the roads. Start shipping more via railroad and POVs could have the roads back...
 
Originally Posted By: grampi
Originally Posted By: HemiHawk
More than specifically getting rid of combustion engines, I'd like to see better public transport. I think in my area they are talking about extending some railways but of course thats going to take a long time. There are simply too many cars on the road and they can't expand roadways fast enough (or don't have the room for it). Its true that many modern cars are pretty efficient... but when sitting in traffic for an hour + everyday...



A lot of the traffic would be alleviated if we could get some of the semis off the roads. Start shipping more via railroad and POVs could have the roads back...
Commercial vehicles pay dearly for the use of the roads.
 
As long as there is oil there will be internal combustion. I don't think electric cars will EVER be the norm. They will improve, and see limited use, as liberal green thinking politicians push for them. And there very well may be some other form of automotive power that will come along in the next century. But nothing Earth shaking is going to happen anytime soon.

The oil industry is going to have a lot to say about all of it as well. Corporations like Exxon/Mobil, BP, Chevron, Shell, Marathon Petroleum, Saudi Aramco, Sinopec, Petronas, Total SA, Conoco Phillips, all control tens of trillions of dollars in worldwide wealth and capital. Not to mention many governments, their economies, along with the politicians and leaders who run them. They are all not going to simply roll over and play dead for some guy like Elon Musk. Along with all of his B.S. and visions of grandeur.

And as all of these alternate energy sources develop, the internal combustion engine will keep improving as well. Look at how much automotive gasoline engines have improved in just the last 50 years. Now imagine the next 50. Compare a 4 cylinder automotive engine from 1968, to one sitting in the showroom today. Vehicles getting 100 MPG are not long off. That's a lot of distance, I don't care how expensive gasoline gets. Reciprocating gasoline engines are nowhere near being anywhere close to the end of their lifetimes.
 
I expect all new personal vehicles to be electric within 15 years. How long combustion engines can hang on for commercial and military applications is hard to tell, but I am certain we are looking at a few decades in most cases.
 
Not Likely,
People forget that Hydrogen is only an energy storage medium, not a source of energy. Nice tailpipe emissions, but terrible losses in creation and high risk transportation.

https://www.greenoptimistic.com/hydrogen-cars-efficiency/#.WzvKk9VKiUk

Originally Posted By: Vern_in_IL
Electric cars are unpractical, our Grid just can't handle that, along with AC's in the summer!

Toyota has "the future" in the 2018 TOYOTA MIRAI
 
While I feel battery electric and maybe fuel cell hybrid is the future, the ICE isn't going anywhere - but the only bio-based fuel that comes close to gasoline on a thermal efficiency scale is butanol. Biodiesel does perform tat-for-tat compared to petroleum diesel. But with EPA and Euro regulations on diesel exhaust, it's still not viable since it doesn't play nice with exhaust aftertreatment.

The oil companies will only embrace bio-based fuels if there is a trend of lower oil reserves amongst other things.

I think fuel cells outside of aviation and public transit won't trickle down to the hoi polloi - the Mirai is a flop compared to the Tesla Model S and even the Chevy Bolt. H2 is also risky to handle during refueling and while it does disspate quicker, in the event of an accident even a small spark can set it off.
 
As been said a dozen times in a dozen + 1 ways ...strip away the utopian fantasies and there are physics ruling the universe. Unless something changes it will always be that way no matter how much you wish it not the case.
 
Originally Posted By: Wolf359
Originally Posted By: Trav
I wish they would work on safer nuclear power, that would solve so many problems but unfortunately lobbying is legal (IMO it should be a felony punishable by imprisonment for bribing politicians like that) and the gas, oil and oil companies wont allow that to happen at any cost as long as 10c worth of oil is in the ground.
Fossil fuels are a horror that needs to be minimized. I am no environmental nut job but we do live in a polluted world and IMHO there is not need to add more to it than we really have to. No don't throw the A/C units out.
lol.gif



The problem isn't safer nuclear power, it basically boils down to the cost per megawatt. Basically the cost is too high relative to the other options out there like gas turbines, solar and wind.

It has nothing at all to do with lobbying by gas/oil companies. It's the economics itself that doesn't work. You need to borrow lots of money for years without any production and with cost overruns, it's the rate payers who end up stuck with higher bills. It's been true historically where areas that had nuclear power plants built got stuck with higher rates than others that didn't have them. There's no evil conspiracy when simple economics is the answer most of the time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_nuclear_power_plants


Well, we can completely ignore wind and solar in that comparison because they cannot compete with Nuclear on density, reliability, load-following, lifespan...etc. They are in no way a drop-in for anything doing baseload. Now, GT's, that's a whole other discussion. Gas is cheap and so are gas plants when compared to building nuclear. The regulation and approval process is nowhere near as complex or expensive and so it is the "easy choice", despite having ~50% of the carbon emissions of coal. Ontario could have built two nuclear plants with the amount of money we wasted on wind and solar (that's not an exaggeration) and they barely account for a blip in our generating mix, of which almost 90% is nuclear and hydro-electric.

If we really cared about this stuff, we would build nuclear. It is a drop-in replacement for any fossil source and we've proven that in Ontario where our coal was almost entirely eliminated by nuclear reactivation and refurbishment (70%), and because it was existing nuclear, at quite reasonable cost.

As you've correctly indicated, new build nuclear requires a ton of up-front capital and long-term amortization. That, on top of the immense amount of red tape to be gone through makes them unattractive. While they are building them in China where there is no anti-nuclear lobby and the government does what it wants, in the rest of the world there is a lot of "GreenPeace"-style activism against it. All of the nukes in Canada were built through ventures that involved two Crown entities: AECL (Atomic Energy Canada Limited, Federal) and their respective provincial partner, which, in Ontario was Ontario Hydro (now OPG), in New Brunswick, NB Hydro and in Quebec, Hydro Quebec. While we have had private companies looking at new builds (Bruce Power) the only new build that was actually going to go ahead was that of OPG, who was going to, as recently as 6 years ago, build 2-4 ACR1000 1,200MW units at their Darlington site until that plan was squashed by the then-governing idiot Dalton McGuinty, and this was AFTER they had gotten all of the approvals and were ready to break-ground
smirk.gif


Basically, you won't get private companies to build traditional nuclear power plants. They are too expensive, the build times too long and the time until an ROI is realized, also too long. That's where SMR's come in where the idea is that the modular construction and significantly lower capital costs will make them viable for small utilities and companies who can stomach the 600 million pricetag, versus the potential 10's of billions for a traditional plant.
 
Originally Posted By: Wolf359
Originally Posted By: Trav
I wish they would work on safer nuclear power, that would solve so many problems but unfortunately lobbying is legal (IMO it should be a felony punishable by imprisonment for bribing politicians like that) and the gas, oil and oil companies wont allow that to happen at any cost as long as 10c worth of oil is in the ground.
Fossil fuels are a horror that needs to be minimized. I am no environmental nut job but we do live in a polluted world and IMHO there is not need to add more to it than we really have to. No don't throw the A/C units out.
lol.gif



The problem isn't safer nuclear power, it basically boils down to the cost per megawatt. Basically the cost is too high relative to the other options out there like gas turbines, solar and wind.

It has nothing at all to do with lobbying by gas/oil companies. It's the economics itself that doesn't work. You need to borrow lots of money for years without any production and with cost overruns, it's the rate payers who end up stuck with higher bills. It's been true historically where areas that had nuclear power plants built got stuck with higher rates than others that didn't have them. There's no evil conspiracy when simple economics is the answer most of the time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_nuclear_power_plants


Sorry I don't agree, the coal lobby, oil companies lobbying for drilling rights in pristine areas that at this point really dont need to be touch and could be held for future use if it became necessary (no I am not anti drilling).
Bribes are rampant and pockets wide open waiting to be filled by lobbyist in many forms not just cash (in the end it all becomes cash) just look around man.

You are trying to break it down to facts based on usage, economics, wattage and all the rest but that's not how things really work.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powe...m=.69d3d1a32add

https://www.opensecrets.org/lobby/indusclient.php?id=E01

https://www.denverpost.com/2017/07/16/oil-gas-industry-public-influence-campaigns/
 
Nor I, Nothing else has the energy density. Underwhelmed by Li-On overheating. Can't waste energy on cooling and be dense or versatile. Electric has the advantage for power to the wheels over ICE already. If you could produce an electric with a 500 mile range on a 5 minute recharge,that will be the end of the ICE. Nothing yet has the fill up and go-abilty of gas. Liquid gas/electric diesel trucks running forever between established terminals, I will
live to see that.
 
as soon as EV charging has the same infrastructure as gas stations. As soon as you can fill up in under a minute, and drive hundreds of miles with no problem being near a recharge station. As soon as the range anxiety is gone.

"mostly electric" cars like the Volt and i3 will probably dominate in the near-to-mid future since the run as an EV most of the time but only run the gas engine to recharge the battery. So you don't have to worry about range anxiety.
 
I think 10-15 minutes would be fair and more than acceptable, you cant fill a full size car in a minute with an almost empty tank.
 
Originally Posted By: Trav
Originally Posted By: Wolf359
Originally Posted By: Trav
I wish they would work on safer nuclear power, that would solve so many problems but unfortunately lobbying is legal (IMO it should be a felony punishable by imprisonment for bribing politicians like that) and the gas, oil and oil companies wont allow that to happen at any cost as long as 10c worth of oil is in the ground.
Fossil fuels are a horror that needs to be minimized. I am no environmental nut job but we do live in a polluted world and IMHO there is not need to add more to it than we really have to. No don't throw the A/C units out.
lol.gif



The problem isn't safer nuclear power, it basically boils down to the cost per megawatt. Basically the cost is too high relative to the other options out there like gas turbines, solar and wind.

It has nothing at all to do with lobbying by gas/oil companies. It's the economics itself that doesn't work. You need to borrow lots of money for years without any production and with cost overruns, it's the rate payers who end up stuck with higher bills. It's been true historically where areas that had nuclear power plants built got stuck with higher rates than others that didn't have them. There's no evil conspiracy when simple economics is the answer most of the time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_nuclear_power_plants


Sorry I don't agree, the coal lobby, oil companies lobbying for drilling rights in pristine areas that at this point really dont need to be touch and could be held for future use if it became necessary (no I am not anti drilling).
Bribes are rampant and pockets wide open waiting to be filled by lobbyist in many forms not just cash (in the end it all becomes cash) just look around man.

You are trying to break it down to facts based on usage, economics, wattage and all the rest but that's not how things really work.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powe...m=.69d3d1a32add

https://www.opensecrets.org/lobby/indusclient.php?id=E01

https://www.denverpost.com/2017/07/16/oil-gas-industry-public-influence-campaigns/



Sorry, didn't mean to burst your conspiracy rant with facts.

Those articles don't really point to anything about them being anti-nuclear. They're just trying to push their own interests which is normal. Nuclear doesn't go anywhere just because of the economics aren't there. The oil and gas firms don't have to do anything because they're not even competition when they price themselves out of the market. The failure is that the nuclear industry can't get the price low enough to be competitive with gas. Not that the gas industry did something to the nuclear industry.
 
Like I keep saying...there's no "orderly transition" to a renewable future.

Need 3-5 times the nameplate capacity to harvest the same capacity over time as a thermal (or nuke), and as it is introduced, it drives the others out of the game when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing...then when that capacity is gone, we are stuffed.
 
Originally Posted By: Trav
I think 10-15 minutes would be fair and more than acceptable, you cant fill a full size car in a minute with an almost empty tank.


A battery you can deattach/reattach in a few minutes solves the problem.
 
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