What Do You Think About Long-Term (20+ Years) Ownership Potential Of Modern Cars?

[Passport1]

What Do You Think About Long-Term (20+ Years) Ownership Potential Of Modern Cars?

This is a really great question, tks.

Already stated several times, maintaining these cars to that age/distance will require a higher degree of computer system skills than many of us have. I think that if somebody has an intuitive sense about how computing systems work they will maybe coax a modern car to the 20 year goal line. For the rest of us who have to read manuals and watch tutorials the task will be a challenge. How did wooden sailing ship captains adapt to steel hulled steam power? I don't know.

Like some here, I am inclined to retreat from technology that I have little chance to understand and seek shelter in that which I am already comfortable with.

At my age thinking about owning a car in 20 years is a fantasy anyhow. I'll just keep on driving my '92 Volvo.

 

[SwampSurvivor]

Not possible for me. I'd love to keep a vehicle 20 years, but the roadsalt will eat it up. I'm not afraid of all of the computer stuff and the mechanics. Transmissions, differentials, engines (even with GDI) are more reliable than they have ever been.

I really think once I'm out of being an automotive hobbyist, I'm just going leased vehicles. A leased Nissan Versa every 3 years looks appealing and cheap!

 

[Crash Bandicoot]

I think the biggest thing with keeping a newer car besides the fact that we’re in the early days of weak unreliable CVTs is that our mindset towards disposability is still the same as it was in the 60s. That a car is basically worthless at the arbitrary 100,000 mile mark. No one thinks modern cars need any maintenance but oil changes which is true if you want to keep a car to 100k and dump it, but if you’re buying used you are the one paying for the laziness of the first owner. The tech is the least of my concern. Cars have had computers in them for a loooooong time, it’s why I roll eyes at people who say “I don’t want no computers in my car” good luck with that enjoy futzing with carbs and not being able to get tons of info instantly to help diagnosis. If anything the tech in most cars are a huge benefit, I find modern cars far easier to work from because I can pull all sorts of sensor data and codes from a $20 Bluetooth OBDii scanner and my phone. Physically cars are hard to work on because there is more in a smaller space, nothing you can do there, working on a modern BOF pu truck with a smaller engine option is still easy as pie whereas a compact city car, there just is a finite amount of space.

 

[dudemancool1904]

You’re forgetting one thing: safety. Newer cars are proven to be safer in terms of materials, construction, and technology. I think late 80’s to early 00’s is the sweet spot in terms of DIY’ness and reliability but after seeing traffic collisions every day for nearly 20 years there is no way I would not put my loved ones in the newest vehicles possible.

 

[jagdriver727]

Some vehicles that are very common like my 2016 Honda CR-V or the Toyota Rav-4 will have used parts including the electronics available at large auto salvage yards for a very long time. As far as these vehicles go as long as it is not a rare version such as the few with a standard transmission, used parts will be available for a long time.

So one thing to keep in mind if you plan on keeping a vehicle for a long time, is weather or not it is a vehicle that is one of the top sellers.

Rare options are definitely something to consider with long-term serviceability. Look at my CR-V, MCU took a dump and it HAD to be one from a standard transmission car, which they built about 5 of. It sat out back for almost four months before I got a module.

My Ranger, on the other hand, I'll probably be able to get parts easily in 2050, if you can still buy gasoline then. Ford built about 7 million of them and the aftermarket support is huge, even almost a decade after they stopped building the old platform.

 

[Crash Bandicoot]

Rare options are definitely something to consider with long-term serviceability. Look at my CR-V, MCU took a dump and it HAD to be one from a standard transmission car, which they built about 5 of. It sat out back for almost four months before I got a module.

My Ranger, on the other hand, I'll probably be able to get parts easily in 2050, if you can still buy gasoline then. Ford built about 7 million of them and the aftermarket support is huge, even almost a decade after they stopped building the old platform.

Good point. To be fair you have to really classify BOF pickup trucks and cars separately. By their very nature they’re going to be super modular and cheap to work on/get parts for. For example the F250 ranges fro $33k new to $76k new and both of those trucks share a lot of the same platform and have a longer expected service life than a consumer car.

 

[hytibilly]

I would probably own my car forever if it weren't for the body and the frame. I live in New York, and the salt and sand absolutely beats the crap out of the car. I get my undercarriage cleaned after every snowstorm when the salt finally goes away but the car gets rusted really bad. I have to replace my brakes and rotors every three years because they get rusted to crap. I had the floor of a car rust through until I felt like Fred Flintstone.

As far as computers, I bought a cloned Ford VCM II to run Ford IDS, which is the dealer software. I have reprogrammed my ECU to get rid of TSBs, programmed my own keys (well, key), bled my ABS unit, and all sorts of nerdy things. If you want to keep your car for a while, see if there is such an equivalent available. The Ford was about a hundred bucks on Amazon.

Parts for my car (Ford Fusion Hybrid) are plentiful, cheap, and available from scrapyards.

 

[admzn]

I already have all the cars I want to own. May add a classic from the 60s/70s in there and a small pickup at some point. But otherwise I don't desire anything newer. I've driven a lot of newer cars and the tech drives me nuts. Just give me an aux for music and that's good enough. Besides all that blue light from the constant screens is not good for your eyes. And I don't know about the rest of you, but some of them make seeing at night a problem for me.

My Golf they made a gazillion of, I still see them on the road here every day so I'm not worried about parts for it. The Xterra and Pathfinder however are not as popular. But I do hit the junkyards and online part outs to grab spares when I can.

The winters here are rough on cars, no one maintains them so they rust. The VW mk4 seems almost impervious to it, I get it oil sprayed, and although a few years were missed, the car is still spotless underneath.

 

[loneryder]

Many years ago I got a new Chevy Celebrity with the V6 engine as a company car. I changed the oil every 3k and did all the maintenance I could think of because I wasn't paying. I planned to buy the car at the end of the corp lease. I wanted to see how long an American car would last with excellent care. When I got to 90-100k all the peripherals started failing. Power steering, ac compressor, water pump, alternator, you name it. It still didn't burn oil. About 150k the trans failed. It had numerous fluid changes. At that time I cut my losses and had it towed away for a nice tax write off. I came to the conclusion that you can't keep an American car for more than 100k if you are lucky. I have a 2000 MB CLK with 100 k on it and it runs strong. I may need an ac compressor or power steering pump in the future but that engine (4.3) and tranny is proven themselves to be one of the best MB has built. Of course some MB models are crap. And the newer ones are electronic junk.

 

[Cujet]

My Jaguar is coming up on 20 years. It's been quite an electronic headache. I pulled the dome lights out, as they won't shut off. The key won't turn when the "chip" does not read correctly, the trunk won't open (it's an electrical release) and now when I select turn signals on, the doors lock and lock and lock and lock. Ugh.

Yeah, I know you are all going to say, "but it's a Jag, so this is expected". No, not really, It's a Ford Contour/Mondeo and it has nearly 100% Ford parts. The Jaguar parts are the body style, seats and dash.

Today's electronics are lead-free and are subject to all manner of strange failures. Including tin whiskers, cracked solder joints and strange corrosion.

 

[2EHA]

My Jaguar is coming up on 20 years. It's been quite an electronic headache. I pulled the dome lights out, as they won't shut off. The key won't turn when the "chip" does not read correctly, the trunk won't open (it's an electrical release) and now when I select turn signals on, the doors lock and lock and lock and lock. Ugh.

Yeah, I know you are all going to say, "but it's a Jag, so this is expected". No, not really, It's a Ford Contour/Mondeo and it has nearly 100% Ford parts. The Jaguar parts are the body style, seats and dash.

The X-Type? hell no

Very different version of the Duratec with bucket lifters and VVT. Transfer case was purpose built, suspension is
Your issue does sound very much like a GEM problem on any ford family product but again it’s not a shared part

 

[Saabist]

My newest vehicle is 22 years old, so I'm perfectly happy driving an old car. (Heck I was driving an '86 model around today.) Trouble with today's cars is there is so much that only dealers can diagnose and repair. Not sure how that's going to play out after a couple of decades. Of course at my age worrying about whether a new car would be serviceable 20 years from now is purely an academic question.

 

[nobb]

I think as long as you get a common vehicle like an F-150, Tacoma, Civic, Corolla, etc.... people will always find ways to keep these on the road and there will be plenty of spare parts. As barebones of a model as you can tolerate of course and ideally something with an enthusiast community that will be dedicated to keeping these vehicles on the road. I tend to like trucks or other such body on frame vehicles as they are more accessible. Having a solid axle in the back also reduces complexity while increasing durability.

 

[jagdriver727]

My Jaguar is coming up on 20 years. It's been quite an electronic headache. I pulled the dome lights out, as they won't shut off. The key won't turn when the "chip" does not read correctly, the trunk won't open (it's an electrical release) and now when I select turn signals on, the doors lock and lock and lock and lock. Ugh.

Yeah, I know you are all going to say, "but it's a Jag, so this is expected". No, not really, It's a Ford Contour/Mondeo and it has nearly 100% Ford parts. The Jaguar parts are the body style, seats and dash.

Today's electronics are lead-free and are subject to all manner of strange failures. Including tin whiskers, cracked solder joints and strange corrosion.

My '06 XJ8 Vanden Plas has been remarkably trouble-free.

The '87 XJ-S V12, on the other hand... I believe I've driven it 42 miles so far, no electrical faults yet but mechanical issues galore. Once I get it back up and running I intend to daily drive it. I've been told by many Jag specialists that if they're maintained by the book and driven every day they can be quite reliable.

 

[ls1mike]

I think it will come down to how much are you willing to spend to keep it going. The WS6 is 20 and has a lot of electronics. I have not replaced any of them yet...but I know they are easy to get. If enough were sold or it is something people like to keep, the aftermarket will provide.

 

[2EHA]

My '06 XJ8 Vanden Plas has been remarkably trouble-free.

The '87 XJ-S V12, on the other hand... I believe I've driven it 42 miles so far, no electrical faults yet but mechanical issues galore. Once I get it back up and running I intend to daily drive it. I've been told by many Jag specialists that if they're maintained by the book and driven every day they can be quite reliable.

Jags of that era suffered from the classic BL fails and also the dictatorship of Sir William Lyons. When that guy died the company restructured and bailed itself out of the leyland disaster but still had no money to build their cars right. Ford stepped in 89 with a bucket full of cash and problems started solving themselves.

The XJS ended up being a real nice car in the final few years but the 87 with the smogged out 5.3 and digital-p injection is one of the worst and prices reflect that. Back when I did part outs half of them were swapped with the crappiest most worn out truck 350s you could possibly find.

If you want a two door jag the DB7 Vantage and the 03-06 XKR are easily the best choices if you can step up to the low five figure range.

Regardless their advice is true. If you want to kill any car just let it sit

 

[supton]

Hard to say. Sure is nice to hop into a late model car and "know" that it'll get the job done. All the safety gear and all--you might be the world's best driver but all that means is that (literally) everyone else on the road is worse than you!

Buying a used car is a gamble. But so is buying new. Will you wind up with the orphan model that winds up with a strange failure mode that wipes out the junkyards in short order, but with no good fix? with some painful but routine maintenance requirement (see the current Escape rant thread)? What if it's a good model and all, but you get the dreaded mouse in the wiring. Or you get to be that one guy who gets lucky and first the trans goes, then the ECU, then the... all while shelling out big bucks (regardless of how you pay for it).

I'm a big believer in having realistic expectations, and amortizing the cost of something over a reasonable period of time. If it fails to live past that period of time, well, bummer, but could you really expect more? If I bought a new car I'm just not sure I can expect it to last past 10yr/150k--the odds are very good today, but can I really bet on it? Seems wiser to accept that it might not, and buy accordingly. [Most things can be repaired indefinitely but too often it seems cheaper if not wiser to just move on.]

I think if my finances were to improve, I'd probably be a 10 and done sort of person. Life is short and old car problems aren't fun--I've had my fun but I have other hobbies now. If I had money to burn, 5 and done would be nice! Sure seems like my vehicle needs change every 5-10 years, and it can be hard to pick "the best" vehicle that meets my needs for 25 years. Keeping a fleet of older cars can be cheaper... or not...

I guess to sum it up, no I would not think it wise to buy a car and expect it to last 20 years. It wasn't designed for that. 20 years from now, will we have 20 year old cars? Sure we will, and it'll be interesting to dig this thread up and see how wrong we were. But what will be interesting to find out is just what percentage made it to 20... Quite frankly, I suspect many of us are looking back with rose colored glasses. Just what percentage of MY2000 vehicles are still on the road today? While I too think the 90's may have been a pinnacle of longevity I still think all cars were meant to be disposable, and road salt sure does its job to ensure that.

 

[jeepman3071]

I work in the technology field, and I think this question is what will eventually change car ownership as a whole to something subscription based like leasing. The problem with the engineering obsession with making everything computer controlled (even when it doesn't need to be) is that the technology is what will determine the life cycle of the car, not the mechanical parts. Like an aging PC operating system, you can bet manufacturers won't be pushing updates for current new vehicles for a significant amount of time in the future, many don't even offer updates for their vehicles. In 5 years whatever brand new vehicles are on the lots now will feel outdated with slow lagging screens. Essentially making a $60,000 car feel like a $5,000 POS. Ever use a navigation system in a vehicle from 2010? Feels like Windows 95. I specifically bought my 2009 BMW without any nav, the ones I test drove with nav the system felt so outdated. This issue will be magnified by vehicles where the screen cannot be turned off or ignored, and every feature requires you to use the infotainment.

 

[Msmith68w]

I work in the technology field, and I think this question is what will eventually change car ownership as a whole to something subscription based like leasing. The problem with the engineering obsession with making everything computer controlled (even when it doesn't need to be) is that the technology is what will determine the life cycle of the car, not the mechanical parts. Like an aging PC operating system, you can bet manufacturers won't be pushing updates for current new vehicles for a significant amount of time in the future, many don't even offer updates for their vehicles. In 5 years whatever brand new vehicles are on the lots now will feel outdated with slow lagging screens. Essentially making a $60,000 car feel like a $5,000 POS. Ever use a navigation system in a vehicle from 2010? Feels like Windows 95. I specifically bought my 2009 BMW without any nav, the ones I test drove with nav the system felt so outdated. This issue will be magnified by vehicles where the screen cannot be turned off or ignored, and every feature requires you to use the infotainment.

THIS! Exactly this. This is what I am saying.

Now, I don't agree with a previous commentor who thought that no-one will own vehicles in the future and it will be all subscription based. Try selling that idea to rural people who live out in the boonies. They're not going to wait 2 hours on a car to show up so they can take their kid to soccer. However, in big cities I can see this being the case for a majority of people at some point.

I think your statement about technological issues being the thing that puts car in the scrap heap rather than mechanical issues is EXACTLY right. What is going to happen is that as a car ages and these systems start to get worse, the owners won't spend the astronomical sums of money required to fix them (if a fix is even available) and so when the car finally gets to it's 3rd or 4th owner, it will be almost unusable. Sure, the drivetrain will be mechanically fine, but all the tech will be so bad it will be nearly useless. How are you going to drive a car when you don't have a speedo because the computer running the digital gauge cluster has failed and costs thousands and thousands of dollars to fix. This is a 2021 F150 gauge cluster that is just a screen, so this stuff is mainstream. That's a custom size deal, probably running with proprietary software...so it's not like the aftermarket is going to be able to step in and offer cheap solutions for this.

I realize that for 99% of people on the road, getting trapped in this "buy a new or newish car and sell it before it gets too old" thing is going to be their only choice. As a mechanic and automotive enthusiast though, I feel like I have the freedom to assemble a fleet of older, simpler vehicles and drive those exclusively through my lifetime. Check out Tony DeFeo of Uncle Tony's Garage on Youtube. He owns 14-15 cars and trucks, all of which are Chrysler products made between 1960-1980. He owns 0 modern vehicles, and relies 100% on his cars that are all at least half a century old. Given how much more reliable 90's and 2000's cars are than 60's and 70's cars are, and how many more of them were made, it seems really reasonable that I could mimic what he's done, but just with a different era of car.

 

[Brons2]

Rare options are definitely something to consider with long-term serviceability. Look at my CR-V, MCU took a dump and it HAD to be one from a standard transmission car, which they built about 5 of. It sat out back for almost four months before I got a module.

My Ranger, on the other hand, I'll probably be able to get parts easily in 2050, if you can still buy gasoline then. Ford built about 7 million of them and the aftermarket support is huge, even almost a decade after they stopped building the old platform.

Ha, we had not one but TWO manual CR-Vs in my immediate family, a 99 and a 01. The 01 got totaled at 130K in a head on collision where the person turned the wrong way down a one way street. The 99 went 215 K in 11 years but the synchros in the transmission were getting weak and griding a lot, plus the whole car was pretty worn, it got parked outside it's whole life in Texas and everything was sun-faded. You're definitely more likely go to get a car to last 20 years down here in the South if you garage it as much as you can. Anyway that 99 got traded on a 2010 Insight which is still owned and driven today.

One thing I can say about those first gen manual CR-Vs on the highway was that they were really high strung and tiring for a long drive as they ran 3700-3800 RPM at 70-75. Constant mechanical drone in your ear. Not fun, thankfully neither was ever my daily driver. They really needed a 6 speed. Which since I mention it, is one of the things I prefer about the newer cars, the 6, 8 and 10 speed transmissions. NOT a fan of the CVT though, and my wife has one.

I work in the technology field, and I think this question is what will eventually change car ownership as a whole to something subscription based like leasing. The problem with the engineering obsession with making everything computer controlled (even when it doesn't need to be) is that the technology is what will determine the life cycle of the car, not the mechanical parts. Like an aging PC operating system, you can bet manufacturers won't be pushing updates for current new vehicles for a significant amount of time in the future, many don't even offer updates for their vehicles. In 5 years whatever brand new vehicles are on the lots now will feel outdated with slow lagging screens. Essentially making a $60,000 car feel like a $5,000 POS. Ever use a navigation system in a vehicle from 2010? Feels like Windows 95. I specifically bought my 2009 BMW without any nav, the ones I test drove with nav the system felt so outdated. This issue will be magnified by vehicles where the screen cannot be turned off or ignored, and every feature requires you to use the infotainment.

The navigation radio with Sync on my 2010 Navigator is not that bad functionality wise, and you can talk to it the same way you talk to Google or Siri and it works very well. BUT, it doesn't have traffic unless you pay Sirius for it, and you also have to pay them for the map updates. It also does a really good job of playing music over Bluetooth, and it sounds better than FM radio to boot. What does make it look old is the screen is starting to yellow along the bottom, so that's obviously unacceptable. But it works good for navigation if you don't care about traffic, and the place you're going is actually on the map.

I'm a technologist also, 25 years in the technology field. I'd rather get a head unit that supports Android Auto and Apple Car Play, then it can get the traffic and updates will be whenever Google/Apple updates their map system. What's making me pause is that I have the THX (haha is that still a thing?) certified 14 speaker system so there are amps and other things to contend with. Apparently the Ford speakers are all 1 ohm so maybe won't pay nice with aftermarket gear. It may be a matter of ripping and replacing every sound component in addition to the head unit, so, not a cheap change to make. I'm still researching.