What Do You Think About Long-Term (20+ Years) Ownership Potential Of Modern Cars?

cars are lasting longer even as they become more and more complicated. 90s and 2000s cars have proven as a whole to be long lasting and I have no inclination to believe that today’s cars won’t last. if the average age of a vehicle on american roads in the year 2032 is >12 years old we know our answer.

this is really a reversal of the trend that took off in the 50s and 60s where vehicles were the very definition of disposable and lived short and miserable lives
 
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Problem is manufacturers stop stocking parts after 10 years. And aftermarket won't step in. Thinking Ford E350 5.4L engine harness I had a problem with as an example when running a large fleet.
this is my only concern owning an old car. My old 91 Previa is getting more and more difficult to find parts for. I am certain once the engine mounts go bad, I will have to retire the vehicle. Engine mounts are no longer available from Toyota.
 
I know all about driving 20+ year old cars. Besides my '16 Nissan Versa I have a '97 and '02 Ford Escort licensed and insured at the moment. I drove an '88 Escort as a daily driver from '93 until about 2011 or 2012 and retired it with 518K miles. It was so simple and the only place under the hood that was cramped for working space was the front side of the engine. In the past I've done most of my own work too but, getting older and being disabled with chronic back pain I can easily see that coming to an end in the next few years. The last car I bought was the '16 Versa. I bought it in Feb. 2019 with 10K miles and a rebuilt title for $5300, my plans are to drive it until something major happens with it then I'll probably hunt around and try to find another low mileage rebuilt title vehicle. I figure if I can drive the Versa to 100K miles without any major problems I'll have got my money's worth out of it and anything above and beyond is just a blessing. I'm like you and believe cars are getting so many electronics on them that when they start giving problems it's likely to cost more to fix than the car is worth. When I drove the '88 Escort I could replace any part on the car that wore out usually for well under $100., it's not like that with these new cars.
 
My 2003 Tacoma is getting close to that age now. I can get most parts delivered from Toyota. I just replaced driver and passenger door, window seal. Its the one that sits at the bottom of the glass between door panel and glass outside. It cost me $50 for both pieces shipped to my door. The Florida sun beats on these exterior parts. The truck is great to drive and honestly I am not sure if I like driving it more than my 2014.
 
There are a lot of people out there that has learned to fix a lot of these electronic modules for pennies on the dollar of a new one. I have done it in older vehicles and have no doubt there will be people out there to fix all this stuff.
 
You may have issues with accessories like lane keep assist, collision avoidance/adaptive cruise, etc, but the core functions of the vehicle, running/driving/stopping should have no problem lasting that long.
 
this is my only concern owning an old car. My old 91 Previa is getting more and more difficult to find parts for. I am certain once the engine mounts go bad, I will have to retire the vehicle. Engine mounts are no longer available from Toyota.


I've used cheap aftermarket mounts for my 1995 Escort and they work fine, as in they have held up for years. If it were a problem, I'd take an old pair and do the window weld thing. Throwing away a car because of lack of mounts seems silly. This is a problem that can be solved with some creativity.
 
So...here's the thing with all this. I think we would probably all agree that this issue is only going to get worse, not better. Government regulation for crash safety, emissions, and fuel economy is unlikely to become LESS strict. Consumer preference for the tech is unlikely to decrease. The cheaper new cars that don't have all the crazy expensive/complicated tech yet will inevitably have it in the future. Consumers want that garbage, it sells.

So I anticipate there being a time in the not so distant future that you're going to be forced onto one of two paths.

Path 1: The never ending treadmill of buying new or new-ish cars.

In this scenario, you act like many people and buy a new-ish car every 3-5 years, keeping up with the times. Financially, this may sound like a good idea, because you're unlikely to have to deal with the servicing issues as the cars age...but you're going to have a perpetual car payment. Also, if you like to modify cars like I do, this route sucks because you sink money into cars and then sell them, realizing a higher loss. I really resist this path from a principled perspective. Spending your whole life with a car payment is a really good way to ensure you don't accumulate much wealth for most middle class people.

Path 2: You buy and hold an older car (or cars) that you can fix.

Like I mentioned above, I think my plan is to assemble a family fleet of vehicles that were in very common use (or use parts-bin parts) in their day, but are from the late 90s or 00s. Things like Pather body Fords, Full Size trucks from the big 3, etc will have parts available for decades and decades because of the sheer volume of production, minimal changes over long life-cycles, and size of the aftermarket. With this approach, when you need a car you go out and you buy the nicest, cleanest, lowest mileage example of an older car that you can afford, and you maintain it with the goal being to keep it as long as you possibly can.

I honestly think that in the next 20 years there is going to be a huge run on the market for 90s/00s cars because I know I'm not the only one who considers them the "sweet spot" in terms of safety, tech, comfort, etc. Just new enough for airbags and fuel injection, just old enough not to have the insane level of tech. I personally would rather start buying up the cars I want from this vintage now while they're cheap and plentiful than wait until their values start climbing and availability tanks.
 
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I plan on keeping our '19 Atlas long term. The only real issues I forsee are with the nav and cluster screens.

As there are now for earlier systems, there will be an aftermarket to support them. It is one of the benefits to owning an "enthusiast" brand. Solutions will be available because people are passionate about the cars.

As for my '12 Touareg, I plan on trading it for a '11-'12 Q7 TDI and keeping that long term. Just waiting for the right one. I'd really like B&O.
 
I plan on keeping our '19 Atlas long term. The only real issues I forsee are with the nav and cluster screens.

As there are now for earlier systems, there will be an aftermarket to support them. It is one of the benefits to owning an "enthusiast" brand. Solutions will be available because people are passionate about the cars.

As for my '12 Touareg, I plan on trading it for a '11-'12 Q7 TDI and keeping that long term. Just waiting for the right one. I'd really like B&O.

This is a good point. I have always been an enthusiast myself, but even for my boring commuter cars, I try to buy cars that have a solid following. The benefit is not just parts availability and support, but also a large forum presence that can serve as a long term repository for diagnostics.
 
I can't really decide if I think early '10s cars will also be lumped into the category of good buy and hold cars. Being a Chrysler guy, I'm pretty temped to build my fleet around the early 2010's because the Hemi is so good and the interiors improved so much during that time. They did start getting techie in that period though.
 
I think those of us who enjoy doing our own car repairs can still do so to a large degree. It takes a little retraining in diagnosing with a quality scan tool. The central problem with cars these days is so many issues with cars can produce similar symptoms and without a quality scan tool and the knowledge of operating it you end up just throwing parts at the problem. Cars are definitely more complex these days so diagnostics has changed.
 
I think those of us who enjoy doing our own car repairs can still do so to a large degree. It takes a little retraining in diagnosing with a quality scan tool. The central problem with cars these days is so many issues with cars can produce similar symptoms and without a quality scan tool and the knowledge of operating it you end up just throwing parts at the problem. Cars are definitely more complex these days so diagnostics has changed.

I think the issue is that as more and more things become electronic (as opposed to mechanical or hydraulic) it can be harder to diagnose because electronics tend to either work or totally fail. There isn't a lot of in-between. I know I for one am not great with electrical work.
 
Cost is the reason why I am about to put 4 struts on my sons’ 2000 Camry with 153k miles. He and his wife can’t afford a new car, but since the Camry is in overall decent shape, we will put $400 in struts and more money into an exhaust and other wear and tear items. I fluid filmed the entire underside and in the body panels this past weekend to slow down what rust has started when I changed the sway bar bushings this past weekend. It’ll need tires next Fall for sure.

I’m at a crossroads as to what to do for my daughter when she turns 16. A decent car is $5000 minimum, and it will have 120k miles on it. I hate car loans, but may have to take one for the team and give her my Rouge and get me something else......newer and nicer.

Cars are just too expensive anymore.
 
Problem is manufacturers stop stocking parts after 10 years.
Not true, manufacturers are only required to sell parts during the warranty period. They do not have to stock them, only procure them. Once your bumper to bumper warranty is out on your car you could be out of luck.

I’m not keeping my Buick for this reason. It was only made for 2 models years, by a company not owned by GM anymore, from Germany. Body parts are already a concern for some owners, much less any number of modules in the car. Plus, any module replacement requires dealer-level programming.
 
Many older cars are sent to the junker because folks are tired of bringing it in for repairs, and the idea of a much newer car that mostly only needs maintenance along with newer features grabs their attention.
 
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