This is a nice article, even though the data is from 1995. Look closely at the tables before jumping to any conclusions.
http://www.ce.utexas.edu/prof/kockelman/public_html/TRB02CrashRates.pdf
Overall Injury Risk to Different Drivers:
Combining Exposure, Frequency, and Severity Models
ABSTRACT
Traffic crash risk assessments should incorporate appropriate exposure data. However, existing U.S. nationwide crash data sets, the NASS General Estimates System (GES) and the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), do not contain information on driver or vehicle exposure. In order to obtain appropriate exposure data, this work estimates vehicle miles driven (VMD) by different drivers using the Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS). These results are combined with annual crash rates and injury severity information from the GES for a comprehensive assessment of overall risk to different drivers across vehicle classes. Data are distinguished by driver age, gender, vehicle type, crash type (rollover versus non-rollover), and injury severity. After correcting for crash exposure to drivers, results indicate that young drivers are far more crash prone than older drivers (per vehicle mile driven) and that drivers of sports utility vehicles (SUVs) and pickups are more likely to be involved in rollover crashes than those driving passenger cars. Although the results suggest that drivers of SUVs are generally much less crash prone than drivers of passenger cars, the rollover propensity of SUVs and the severity of that crash type offset the incident benefits for the younger drivers.
....Table 13 offers estimates of the probability that drivers receive at least one severe injury during the course of 50,000 miles of driving, and Table 14 provides estimates of the probability that drivers die during this period (in the last crash, of course). Both cases involve crashes of different severity, and all levels need to be added to get the probability, which may include an infinite number of crashes. Recognizing that the probability of experiencing five or more crashes (in the course of 50,000 miles) is negligible (for the average driver), the probabilities for multiple crashes in Tables 13 and 14 only have been omputed for up to four crashes (and all their valid combinations).
Table 13 indicates that young drivers are at higher risk of receiving severe injuries than old or middle-aged drivers. Female drivers are more likely to suffer severe injury in crashes than are males (when driving all vehicle types except for passenger cars). Young and middle-aged males are more crash-prone when driving passenger cars than are their female counterparts. According to these results, a pickup places young female drivers at higher risk than a passenger car, and a minivan is the safest vehicle for a young driver. However, it’s relatively rare for youths to drive minivan. However, neither of these two driver-vehicle combinations is very likely, in practice.
Table 14 provides estimates of the probability that drivers will die in the last of a series of (one or more) crashes that they may experience. Female drivers are at greater risk than males in SUVs, pickups, and minivans; but young and middle-aged males are more vulnerable in passenger cars. Note that these probabilities obscure the nature of the crash; rollover crashes are often fatal, and SUVs and pickups are more likely to roll than passenger cars.
http://www.ce.utexas.edu/prof/kockelman/public_html/TRB02CrashRates.pdf
Overall Injury Risk to Different Drivers:
Combining Exposure, Frequency, and Severity Models
ABSTRACT
Traffic crash risk assessments should incorporate appropriate exposure data. However, existing U.S. nationwide crash data sets, the NASS General Estimates System (GES) and the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), do not contain information on driver or vehicle exposure. In order to obtain appropriate exposure data, this work estimates vehicle miles driven (VMD) by different drivers using the Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS). These results are combined with annual crash rates and injury severity information from the GES for a comprehensive assessment of overall risk to different drivers across vehicle classes. Data are distinguished by driver age, gender, vehicle type, crash type (rollover versus non-rollover), and injury severity. After correcting for crash exposure to drivers, results indicate that young drivers are far more crash prone than older drivers (per vehicle mile driven) and that drivers of sports utility vehicles (SUVs) and pickups are more likely to be involved in rollover crashes than those driving passenger cars. Although the results suggest that drivers of SUVs are generally much less crash prone than drivers of passenger cars, the rollover propensity of SUVs and the severity of that crash type offset the incident benefits for the younger drivers.
....Table 13 offers estimates of the probability that drivers receive at least one severe injury during the course of 50,000 miles of driving, and Table 14 provides estimates of the probability that drivers die during this period (in the last crash, of course). Both cases involve crashes of different severity, and all levels need to be added to get the probability, which may include an infinite number of crashes. Recognizing that the probability of experiencing five or more crashes (in the course of 50,000 miles) is negligible (for the average driver), the probabilities for multiple crashes in Tables 13 and 14 only have been omputed for up to four crashes (and all their valid combinations).
Table 13 indicates that young drivers are at higher risk of receiving severe injuries than old or middle-aged drivers. Female drivers are more likely to suffer severe injury in crashes than are males (when driving all vehicle types except for passenger cars). Young and middle-aged males are more crash-prone when driving passenger cars than are their female counterparts. According to these results, a pickup places young female drivers at higher risk than a passenger car, and a minivan is the safest vehicle for a young driver. However, it’s relatively rare for youths to drive minivan. However, neither of these two driver-vehicle combinations is very likely, in practice.
Table 14 provides estimates of the probability that drivers will die in the last of a series of (one or more) crashes that they may experience. Female drivers are at greater risk than males in SUVs, pickups, and minivans; but young and middle-aged males are more vulnerable in passenger cars. Note that these probabilities obscure the nature of the crash; rollover crashes are often fatal, and SUVs and pickups are more likely to roll than passenger cars.
