Understanding Tesla's Current Stock Valuation

This is the chart that would keep me awake at night if I were a long term Tesla stock holder. Its been making its way around Twitter. Or really anyone that likes Electricity to be on.

Since 2004 we have added I think $30T+ to the public debt, but we produce the same amount of Electrity as we did then. China has doubled in the last few years, and there planning to double again. Yet we seem to somehow think we will be the leader in EV's, and datacenters, and whatever other things that require energy.

Maybe a good rickshaw stock as a hedge?

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CT is what happens when -

1. nobody pushes back on the boss.
2. a guy thats never used a truck/towed a boat/trailer/ in his life gets to design one.
The worst part of it is that there's some amazing technology in the CT that is completely overshadowed by the massive mess the manufacturing process was for overall longevity while ignoring how trucks are actually used. What they should have done was put that energy into putting the new technology into something like the Plaid. There's no reason why every refreshed Tesla shouldn't have steer by wire now. I don't think Tesla had any business making a truck no matter what the form factor was. Then again, I'm not the target buyer for truck these days and I have owned a truck previously. If I was going to buy an EV truck I would want the Lightning. I get that the Silverado is the better truck, but I've owned an F150 previously and the current model is very similar still to my 2017 F150 and I don't want to drive a 9k lb battering ram. I have a serious problem with GM's approach of making their vehicle so heavy because the battery weighs more than a small hatchback.

I'll refrain from continuing my usual heavy vehicle rant.
 
Musk originally predicted 250,000 Cybertrucks per year by 2025. Q2 saw about 5,000 deliveries... Oops.
There just aren't that many rich California granola heads.
There are several in my neighborhood, and I see other ones around all the time. Now obviously there hard to miss but I would say they sold quite a few around here relative to the market size.
 
This is the chart that would keep me awake at night if I were a long term Tesla stock holder. Its been making its way around Twitter. Or really anyone that likes Electricity to be on.

Since 2004 we have added I think $30T+ to the public debt, but we produce the same amount of Electrity as we did then. China has doubled in the last few years, and there planning to double again. Yet we seem to somehow think we will be the leader in EV's, and datacenters, and whatever other things that require energy.

Maybe a good rickshaw stock as a hedge?

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Yes, China has a total of 58 nuclear plants running, 27 nuclear plants under construction. Plans call for a total of 150 NEW nuclear plants by 2035.
Meanwhile they are still bringing online and planned about 2 new coal plants a week. 6 times more new plants than the rest of the world.

Over time the plan is for nuclear to be the major power contributor.

USA? Crickets
 
Yes, China has a total of 58 nuclear plants running, 27 nuclear plants under construction. Plans call for a total of 150 NEW nuclear plants by 2035.
Meanwhile they are still bringing online and planned about 2 new coal plants a week. 6 times more new plants than the rest of the world.

Over time the plan is for nuclear to be the major power contributor.

USA? Crickets

And big dams for hydro power. What was the latest project, 300GW from 1 dam?
 
Abandoning cities because of changing demographics is way different than building cities that never get used.
Philosophically maybe, but both result in lots of money being spent with no current productive asset to show for it.

Most of the residential money in China was spent by individual citizens. The normal Chinese peasant has very few places to put there money - they can only buy certain Chinese stocks or Real Estate. Many bought real estate. Also Chinese culture of Feng Shui is that a unlived in apartment is worth more than one that has been finished, so they occupant can finish it the way they want. Thats why most of these "investment" properties were never finished. There the Chinese version of Pets.com

We just bought trinkets at walmart which are now in Landfills instead.
 
Musk originally predicted 250,000 Cybertrucks per year by 2025. Q2 saw about 5,000 deliveries... Oops.
There just aren't that many rich California granola heads.
In fairness the king of trucks - Ford, hasn't sold that many lightnings and at one point they were literally giving them away with rebates and such.

The Cybertruck was many things but it was never intended to be a working man's truck. No working man would buy a truck without flat bed rails. If you ever worked out a truck for a living - farmer, contractor, etc - you would understand why.

It was an interesting experiment. I could see a EV truck in the class of the Maverick / santa cruz being popular?
 
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