Understanding Tesla's Current Stock Valuation

Huh???
Tesla most profitable US Automaker? No, not even close
I can’t even find those words in the quote you provided. Also the story is one and a half years old. They finally had a good year in 2022 AND MAYBE that was the story before it was updated.
Its was short lived however and It’s been downhill since 2022.

GM 23.5 Billion
Tesla 17.5 Billion

Here is GM,
View attachment 291447

Here is Tesla,
View attachment 291448
Yeah it WAS the most profitable auto maker. I was trying to show that indeed GM and others are actually profitable on their ev's. Q2 this year has been a disaster for Tesla and I don't think they're done yet. I think it's comical that only a few months ago Musk said that Tesla would be fine without the federal ev credit. Now he's singing a different tune.
 
You’re almost 100% correct the stock is up almost 100% from when the thread was started
However, it’s easy to cherry pick data it also had to come up 300% from a disaster years earlier.
The fact is if people with the stock 3 to 4 years ago, you lost money and you were left out of one of the greatest stock market moves during the last four years.
If you decided to invest it this year, you’re down 20%
So what’s next? Who knows this is what happens when you invest in a company that’s based on nothing but speculation and an insane price earnings multiple of 200%
As a company, they are currently a train wreck. The company turned a profit less than a handful of times since it was born.
This is why over 75% of the stock holdings are retail investors, not institutional

Time will tell, it’s a great stock if you’re a short-term trader as long as in you get in at the right time.
One just has to try to figure out what is that right time because this is a disaster in such a great stock market move over the last few years. If one wants to speculate (yeah I know now I am cherry picking) Bitcoin is up 400% since this thread started.

View attachment 291288
+1 For me I love playing it with buying Put spreads. Especially when I get in them before days like yesterday.
 
Huh???
Tesla most profitable US Automaker? No, not even close
I can’t even find those words in the quote you provided. Also the story is one and a half years old. They finally had a good year in 2022 AND MAYBE that was the story before it was updated.
Its was short lived however and It’s been downhill since 2022.

GM 23.5 Billion
Tesla 17.5 Billion

Here is GM,
View attachment 291447

Here is Tesla,
View attachment 291448
Musk mentioned a couple of days ago that he only owns 13% of Tesla's stock. It sounds like he's actually concerned about being replaced at this point.
 
Musk mentioned a couple of days ago that he only owns 13% of Tesla's stock. It sounds like he's actually concerned about being replaced at this point.
Yes! I found that interesting! Im not sure why he said it, maybe to diffuse the anti Musk stuff around the world.
Dont get me wrong 13% is still a lot but it did seem like he was making a case for himself to remain CEO

If you remember he was thrown out as what became PayPal when he was CEO. They waited until he went on vacation and told him he was being replaced.

"What followed was one of the nastiest coups in Silicon Valley's long, illustrious history of nasty coups. A small group of X.com employees gathered one night at Fanny & Alexander, a now defunct bar in Palo Alto, and brainstormed about how to push out Musk."
Here is the story-
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/was-elon-musk-fired-from-paypal/

I do want to say, I think Musk is a can do person, visionary. Im glad he is here in the USA. I do think there comes a time when he does start up a company or invent something, in time the reins best left to another so he can focus on his next "vision"
I think he has too many things (current day) going on and cant focus. I also suspect, he is someone who maybe doesnt take advice from others seriously within his own companies. (kind of based on the PayPal story and media though)

Also, granted, without him at the helm the stock MIGHT crash. Keep in mind its LOFTY valuation (understatement) is because his followers believe he will produce a self driving car that a consumer can own and have work autonomously while the owner is home and the car making money as an self driving "UBER" Without that lofty valuation from the shareholders they may not have had the capital to venture into these waters and others like robots.
 
I do want to say, I think Musk is a can do person, visionary. Im glad he is here in the USA. I do think there comes a time when he does start up a company or invent something, in time the reins best left to another so he can focus on his next "vision"
I think he has too many things (current day) going on and cant focus. I also suspect, he is someone who maybe doesnt take advice form others seriously within his own companies. (kind of based on the PayPal story and media though)
I agree with everything you said. IMO the man is brilliant, however due to his unfortunate illness he has to be kept on a short leash for lack of a better term. I think long term the best thing for Tesla is to replace him. He can keep busy with other ideas and starting other businesses.
 
Yes! I found that interesting! Im not sure why he said it, maybe to diffuse the anti Musk stuff around the world.
Dont get me wrong 13% is still a lot but it did seem like he was making a case for himself to remain CEO

If you remember he was thrown out as what became PayPal when he was CEO. They waited until he went on vacation and told him he was being replaced.

"What followed was one of the nastiest coups in Silicon Valley's long, illustrious history of nasty coups. A small group of X.com employees gathered one night at Fanny & Alexander, a now defunct bar in Palo Alto, and brainstormed about how to push out Musk."
Here is the story-
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/was-elon-musk-fired-from-paypal/

I do want to say, I think Musk is a can do person, visionary. Im glad he is here in the USA. I do think there comes a time when he does start up a company or invent something, in time the reins best left to another so he can focus on his next "vision"
I think he has too many things (current day) going on and cant focus. I also suspect, he is someone who maybe doesnt take advice form others seriously within his own companies. (kind of based on the PayPal story and media though)
My dad has wanted me to work for Tesla for a long time. I'm seeing many people coming forward about the toxic work environment. One engineer just won a lawsuit against Tesla after she was fired for no reason. She went directly to Musk about issues with their floormats. Apparently Musk is very vindictive and doesn't really want to hear about problems at Tesla. After talking with an employee at a local Tesla repair shop the lady told me that "Yeah they hire differently " then rolled her eyes.
 
I agree with everything you said. IMO the man is brilliant, however due to his unfortunate illness he has to be kept on a short leash for lack of a better term. I think long term the best thing for Tesla is to replace him. He can keep busy with other ideas and starting other businesses.
He talked Las Vegas into handing The Boring Co a ton of cash but with very little to show for it.
 
He talked Las Vegas into handing The Boring Co a ton of cash but with very little to show for it.
Most tunnels now completed however it is constantly expanding.
Also this was a private venture. No public money was used and why the project is moving along with no federal oversight which concerns some, yet for others, no government red tape.
https://www.reviewjournal.com/local...park-mgm-t-mobile-vegas-loop-station-3389808/

Im kind of impressed, and didnt even know all this stuff going on.
https://www.boringcompany.com/projects

Screenshot 2025-07-25 at 9.57.03 AM.webp
 
My dad has wanted me to work for Tesla for a long time. I'm seeing many people coming forward about the toxic work environment. One engineer just won a lawsuit against Tesla after she was fired for no reason. She went directly to Musk about issues with their floormats. Apparently Musk is very vindictive and doesn't really want to hear about problems at Tesla. After talking with an employee at a local Tesla repair shop the lady told me that "Yeah they hire differently " then rolled her eyes.
A friend's son works for Apple and went on an interview to work for Tesla and met with Musk. He stayed with Apple.
 
“Tesla’s earnings hit a new low, with largest revenue drop in years”
https://www.theverge.com/news/712256/tesla-earnings-q2-2025-revenue-profit-elon-musk
I was referring to the news regarding Tesla, GM and other's futures. Certainly Tesla has had serious troubles, self inflicted and competition in the past year and will continue through the next few quarters, at least.

TSLA has recovered about 5% so far today. The rollercoaster continues, but it still dominates the auto market cap because Tesla is considered a tech company that makes cars. Tech is where it's at, current and long term. That's the numbers.
 
Well according to GM you're incorrect. From a statement to shareholders in 2024
"But arguably bigger news was that GM said in its letter to shareholders that its EV lineup became "variable profit positive" in the fourth quarter of last year." They predicted third quarter 2024 but showed profitability on their ev lineup by fourth quarter 2024.
When GM says profitability "
  • Simply put, that means the revenue from its EV sales was higher than the fixed costs for labor and materials needed to build them."
  • As of 2024 according to Carlis Tavares of Stellantis, they are turning a profit on ev's.
"While non-union electric vehicle maker Tesla is the most profitable US automaker, it was losing money until 2019. At that point Tesla was making as few EVs as the legacy automakers, such as Stellantis, Ford and GM, are now manufacturing as they move towards a pure EV lineup."
Apparently the "Big boys" are here.
You just made my point. Variable profit is not profit; if only covers fixed costs. Ms Barra is playing with terms to impress the less knowledgeable. And with the loss of the tax credit, EV sales will tend to drop which will hurt the variable profit. Variable profit is basically manufacturing profit, which is highly dependent on economies of scale affecting materials and labor costs.
 
A friend's son works for Apple and went on an interview to work for Tesla and met with Musk. He stayed with Apple.
Years ago I met with Tesla's CIO, Jay Vijayan, at Microsoft in Redmond to discuss Musk's custom manufacturing software iniatives. I discussed the MRP 2 solution (capacity planning) I had authored; I was offered a job. Microsoft warned me to not take a Tesla job because it was a sweatshop. I am friends with the ex Tesla CIO to this day.
 
Huh???
Tesla most profitable US Automaker? No, not even close
I can’t even find those words in the quote you provided. Also the story is one and a half years old. They finally had a good year in 2022 AND MAYBE that was the story before it was updated.
Its was short lived however and It’s been downhill since 2022.

GM 23.5 Billion
Tesla 17.5 Billion
Most profitable US automaker refers to margins, not pure dollars. I imagine Tesla still is, but haven't review the numbers.
 
I was referring to the news regarding Tesla, GM and other's futures. Certainly Tesla has had serious troubles, self inflicted and competition in the past year and will continue through the next few quarters, at least.

TSLA has recovered about 5% so far today. The rollercoaster continues, but it still dominates the auto market cap because Tesla is considered a tech company that makes cars. Tech is where it's at, current and long term. That's the numbers.
It doesn’t matter what you consider a Tesla, a tech company or a car company.
You constantly separate GM automobile business into electric vehicle and gas vehicle.
Yet when Tesla does bad you ignore the fact that automobiles are their major business

Bottom line is the bottom line.
General Motors constantly turns a profit, they blew away last year’s numbers as I’ve already posted.
You can’t ignore it and you can’t twist words from the CEO because you constantly insist on discussing their electric vehicle business and not the company as a whole

But you refer to Tesla as a company as a whole by saying they are a technology company not just a company

Well, General Motors is a car company and you don’t get to select which engines are in which cars that are selling

General motors makes vehicles.
Post in thread 'Understanding Tesla's Current Stock Valuation'
https://bobistheoilguy.com/forums/t...s-current-stock-valuation.367942/post-7314293
 
You just made my point. Variable profit is not profit; if only covers fixed costs. Ms Barra is playing with terms to impress the less knowledgeable. And with the loss of the tax credit, EV sales will tend to drop which will hurt the variable profit. Variable profit is basically manufacturing profit, which is highly dependent on economies of scale affecting materials and labor costs.
Here is some knowledge for you
Post in thread 'Understanding Tesla's Current Stock Valuation'
https://bobistheoilguy.com/forums/t...s-current-stock-valuation.367942/post-7314293
 
It doesn’t matter what you consider a Tesla, a tech company or a car company.
You constantly separate GM automobile business into electric vehicle and gas vehicle.
Yet when Tesla does bad you ignore the fact that automobiles are their major business

Bottom line is the bottom line.
General Motors constantly turns a profit, they blew away last year’s numbers as I’ve already posted.
You can’t ignore it and you can’t twist words from the CEO because you constantly insist on discussing their electric vehicle business and not the company as a whole

But you refer to Tesla as a company as a whole by saying they are a technology company not just a company

Well, General Motors is a car company and you don’t get to select which engines are in which cars that are selling

General motors makes vehicles.
Post in thread 'Understanding Tesla's Current Stock Valuation'
https://bobistheoilguy.com/forums/t...s-current-stock-valuation.367942/post-7314293
I never said Tesla is doing well in the current market; it's evident they have made strategic mistakes, and the competition has grown.
Nor do I expect Tesla to recover in the near term. Do I think they are poised to do well in the long term? Yes, but that's just my opinion.
 
I'll quote Musk whos Tesla shares sit at 13 percent now. "I need to have enough shares as there's a real risk of me getting kicked out. But not not enough shares that If I go crazy can cause permanent damage." This is all I need to know. The fact that he "thinks" he might go crazy is concerning if you have stock. Second Musk claims that a "low cost" model based on the Y will be here in the fourth quarter. The modern Y already is set up with a minimalist interior. What could Tesla possibly do to make it a low cost model? Third this morning Musk and his number two are saying it's going to be rough in the long range due to the tax credit going away, and the fact that they don't have a low cost option so get your vehicle now. Musk barely a year ago said a low cost Tesla was "pointless " as Tesla will have fully autonomous driving soon. He has been wishy washy on this for years. I always look at Tesla as a meme stock. If most of us on this board ran a job like Musk none of us would have jobs.

There's plenty they can do. For example, from my understanding, the current RWD Y has the premium sound system while the RWD 3 does not. It's the ONLY thing that disappoints me about my car and when my lease is up I want to get a different Tesla with the premium sound system. Also, cloth seats. Maybe manual liftgate/trunk and manual folding seats? Cheaper wheels? It's all a few bucks here and there but at scale I'm sure it adds up. But the big thing they can do would be either a smaller battery or an LFP battery (if they can get one from within the US as not to pay tarriffs). GM will have LFP in the Boltium next year... If Tesla wants to start selling a cheaper Y now they can just use a smaller NCM pack for now then start selling them with an LFP pack later. They'll probably also software-limit it to slower acceleration and offer a performance boost software upgrade later. After all, I don't think it's much cheaper to make it slower with the motor technology they have, but even the cheapest Teslas on offer now are faster than almost every other similarly priced car. Our Equinox EV is much slower than my Tesla and even that is plenty fast enough so Tesla can offer a slower car if they wanted to. I also think a Standard Range 3 would make sense. I would have happily saved a few thousand bucks for less range. 363 miles of range (290 at 80%) on my Model 3 is insane. My Bolt and Prologue only had like 200 mi at 80% and it was never an issue.
 
I never said Tesla is doing well in the current market; it's evident they have made strategic mistakes, and the competition has grown.
Nor do I expect Tesla to recover in the near term. Do I think they are poised to do well in the long term? Yes, but that's just my opinion.
We can agree. They can certainly do well if they could get this self driving technology to the point promised many years ago where somebody can buy a Tesla and have it work for the owner and make money as an Uber while they are at home.

That could be another decade down the line and I would have to wonder who else might come along
 
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