Understanding Tesla's Current Stock Valuation

[JeffKeryk]

First quarter this year the F-150 lighting outsold the Cybertruck. I'm fairly sure it did in Q2 as well. I think GM from reading is now profitable on several of their evs now. Tesla burned Billions abd took in tens of millions in government subsidies before they made a profit.

GM is not profitable in their EV business. If they were, why do they hide the numbers? Ms Barra would be shouting about any profit.
With the loss of the tax credit, EV sales are sure to fall; margins will fall as companies lose due to economies of scale. Remember "variable profit"?

Add to that the increased cost of imported parts... Ouch!

 

[demarpaint]

TSLA missed seven out of the last eight quarters. Competition is heating up and people are rethinking EVs imo, it shows in the declining sales.

 

[JeffKeryk]

TSLA missed seven out of the last eight quarters. Competition is heating up and people are rethinking EVs imo, it shows in the declining sales.

They have shot themselves in the foot. What is the demand for the Cybertruck beyond the "look at me" market? Musk got too full of himself, IMO. And then he betrayed his fiduciary responsibilities and got into you-know-what. Self inflicted wounds.

Competition is growing, but is still tiny in comparison. But growth is inevitable.
Interesting times ahead... Of course, from a market cap perspective, which is what a public business is about, Tesla is in a league of their own in the car industry. Why? Tech.

 

[alarmguy]

From the day this thread first posted to today the stock price increased 167 a share for a gain of 101%.

Many here have predicted 8 of the last 0 company implosions.

Is Telsa challenged? Oh yeah. Lots of dumb mistakes the truck being just awful.

Im amazed they are selling anything given Elon is still at the helm.

You’re almost 100% correct the stock is up almost 100% from when the thread was started
However, it’s easy to cherry pick data it also had to come up 300% from a disaster years earlier.
The fact is if people with the stock 3 to 4 years ago, you lost money and you were left out of one of the greatest stock market moves during the last four years.
If you decided to invest it this year, you’re down 20%
So what’s next? Who knows this is what happens when you invest in a company that’s based on nothing but speculation and an insane price earnings multiple of 200%
As a company, they are currently a train wreck. The company turned a profit less than a handful of times since it was born.
This is why over 75% of the stock holdings are retail investors, not institutional

Time will tell, it’s a great stock if you’re a short-term trader as long as in you get in at the right time.
One just has to try to figure out what is that right time because this is a disaster in such a great stock market move over the last few years. If one wants to speculate (yeah I know now I am cherry picking) Bitcoin is up 400% since this thread started.

 

[alarmguy]

GM is not profitable in their EV business. If they were, why do they hide the numbers? Ms Barra would be shouting about any profit.
With the loss of the tax credit, EV sales are sure to fall; margins will fall as companies lose due to economies of scale. Remember "variable profit"?

Add to that the increased cost of imported

Good news is General Motors is doing far better than Tesla as a company and that is an understatement

 

[JeffKeryk]

Good news is General Motors is doing far better than Tesla as a company and that is an understatement

Read the latest news.

 

[Trav]

They have shot themselves in the foot. What is the demand for the Cybertruck beyond the "look at me" market? Musk got too full of himself, IMO. And then he betrayed his fiduciary responsibilities and got into you-know-what. Self inflicted wounds.

Competition is growing, but is still tiny in comparison. But growth is inevitable.
Interesting times ahead... Of course, from a market cap perspective, which is what a public business is about, Tesla is in a league of their own in the car industry. Why? Tech.

You seem to have forgotten BYD. The article is very informative.

https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-vs-byd-tsla-stock-tesla-robotaxi/

 

[JeffKeryk]

You seem to have forgotten BYD. The article is very informative.

View attachment 291308

https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-vs-byd-tsla-stock-tesla-robotaxi/

I meant the American market... But you are right; BYD is a formidable competitor.
That chart includes hybrids, but BYD has sold more pure EVs worldwide recently as well. Again, I believe Musk shot his company in the foot. Tesla has a lot of work to do.

You understand BYD is heavily sibsidized by the Chinese government, right? My money, as an investor, is on the American company. So far so good.

 

[Trav]

Sure they are subsidized by the Chinese government, they are investing in growing the company but I don't hear anyone howling when many other companies world wide milk the subsidy cow. Tesla got a huge subsidy also in the form of consumer tax credits and CAFE credits all paid by the taxpayer. It really is six of one half a dozen of another. I have stock in BYD and BYD battery, both have multiplied many times over since I bought it so I am happy about that.

https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent-totals

 

[demarpaint]

They have shot themselves in the foot. What is the demand for the Cybertruck beyond the "look at me" market? Musk got too full of himself, IMO. And then he betrayed his fiduciary responsibilities and got into you-know-what. Self inflicted wounds.

Competition is growing, but is still tiny in comparison. But growth is inevitable.
Interesting times ahead... Of course, from a market cap perspective, which is what a public business is about, Tesla is in a league of their own in the car industry. Why? Tech.

Interesting times ahead for sure. Insane prices to insure them in some regions is keeping people away from them too. Then the $7,500 tax deal is going bye bye, not good for an EV shopper.

 

[Torrid]

Sure they are subsidized by the Chinese government, they are investing in growing the company but I don't hear anyone howling when many other companies world wide milk the subsidy cow. Tesla got a huge subsidy also in the form of consumer tax credits and CAFE credits all paid by the taxpayer. It really is six of one half a dozen of another. I have stock in BYD and BYD battery, both have multiplied many times over since I bought it so I am happy about that.

https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent-totals

Not that I'm for subsidizing Tesla or any other company, but the real danger here is how foreign companies will completely take over the US EV market as soon as the flood gates open. China is playing the long game and everyone else is going to lose market share.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Sure they are subsidized by the Chinese government, they are investing in growing the company but I don't hear anyone howling when many other companies world wide milk the subsidy cow. Tesla got a huge subsidy also in the form of consumer tax credits and CAFE credits all paid by the taxpayer. It really is six of one half a dozen of another. I have stock in BYD and BYD battery, both have multiplied many times over since I bought it so I am happy about that.

https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent-totals

Every EV made in America was offered the tax credit benefit. But you are right; car companies have been subsidized over and over again.
Congrats on your investment gain. I'm still over 100% gain on Tesla even with their poor performance this year. I'm still kicking myself for buying the 2018 Model 3 instead of stock... What's a poor boy to do?

 

[JeffKeryk]

Interesting times ahead for sure. Insane prices to insure them in some regions is keeping people away from them too. Then the $7,500 tax deal is going bye bye, not good for an EV shopper.

CA car insurance took a jump; my Tesla took a Superman jump. Ouch!
I tell prospective Tesla customers, "Check your insurance first!" and, "How ya gonna charge?"

 

[JeffKeryk]

Not that I'm for subsidizing Tesla or any other company, but the real danger here is how foreign companies will completely take over the US EV market as soon as the flood gates open. China is playing the long game and everyone else is going to lose market share.

BYD sells a lot of low priced cars; Tesla has never offered a low priced car. Look at Tesla's history; they started with the expensive S and X; but didn't make money (and valuation) until the 3 took over sales. Then the Y became the best selling car in the world and the 3 was up there as well. A lower priced Tesla is the next (and much needed) step.

In business you grow or you go.

 

[demarpaint]

CA car insurance took a jump; my Tesla took a Superman jump. Ouch!

Tesla took a super jump here too, making people rethink or stopping them from buying one.

 

[97prizm]

GM is not profitable in their EV business. If they were, why do they hide the numbers? Ms Barra would be shouting about any profit.
With the loss of the tax credit, EV sales are sure to fall; margins will fall as companies lose due to economies of scale. Remember "variable profit"?

Add to that the increased cost of imported parts... Ouch!

Well according to GM you're incorrect. From a statement to shareholders in 2024
"But arguably bigger news was that GM said in its letter to shareholders that its EV lineup became "variable profit positive" in the fourth quarter of last year." They predicted third quarter 2024 but showed profitability on their ev lineup by fourth quarter 2024.
When GM says profitability "

• Simply put, that means the revenue from its EV sales was higher than the fixed costs for labor and materials needed to build them."
• As of 2024 according to Carlis Tavares of Stellantis, they are turning a profit on ev's.

"While non-union electric vehicle maker Tesla is the most profitable US automaker, it was losing money until 2019. At that point Tesla was making as few EVs as the legacy automakers, such as Stellantis, Ford and GM, are now manufacturing as they move towards a pure EV lineup."
Apparently the "Big boys" are here.

 

[97prizm]

BYD sells a lot of low priced cars; Tesla has never offered a low priced car. Look at Tesla's history; they started with the expensive S and X; but didn't make money (and valuation) until the 3 took over sales. Then the Y became the best selling car in the world and the 3 was up there as well. A lower priced Tesla is the next (and much needed) step.

In business you grow or you go.

The "Low priced " Tesla was talked about by Musk yesterday after posting abysmal sales. They were much lower than investors predicted. Musk said that it won't be a new platform but based in the Model Y. Tesla posted a second consecutive quarter in declining vehicle sales, down 16 percent. They also took in less than half of the carbon offset credits they did in the same quarter last year.

 

[97prizm]

They have shot themselves in the foot. What is the demand for the Cybertruck beyond the "look at me" market? Musk got too full of himself, IMO. And then he betrayed his fiduciary responsibilities and got into you-know-what. Self inflicted wounds.

Competition is growing, but is still tiny in comparison. But growth is inevitable.
Interesting times ahead... Of course, from a market cap perspective, which is what a public business is about, Tesla is in a league of their own in the car industry. Why? Tech.

According to Cox Automotive Tesla has spent AT LEAST 2 Billion on the Cybertruck if not more. I read somewhere that it was closer to 5 Billion as Tesla spent a ton of cash upgrading the Texas factory to turn out supposedly 250k Cybertrucks a year. Analysts are now saying that Tesla loses money on each Cybertruck sold. This doesn't account for the many bought back under lemon laws.

 

[Torrid]

BYD sells a lot of low priced cars; Tesla has never offered a low priced car. Look at Tesla's history; they started with the expensive S and X; but didn't make money (and valuation) until the 3 took over sales. Then the Y became the best selling car in the world and the 3 was up there as well. A lower priced Tesla is the next (and much needed) step.

In business you grow or you go.

Absolutely. I'm just saying that having their government financially back their companies while we do the opposite is going to have a serious effect when they hit our soil.

 

[alarmguy]

Well according to GM you're incorrect. From a statement to shareholders in 2024
"But arguably bigger news was that GM said in its letter to shareholders that its EV lineup became "variable profit positive" in the fourth quarter of last year." They predicted third quarter 2024 but showed profitability on their ev lineup by fourth quarter 2024.
When GM says profitability "

• Simply put, that means the revenue from its EV sales was higher than the fixed costs for labor and materials needed to build them."
• As of 2024 according to Carlis Tavares of Stellantis, they are turning a profit on ev's.

"While non-union electric vehicle maker Tesla is the most profitable US automaker, it was losing money until 2019. At that point Tesla was making as few EVs as the legacy automakers, such as Stellantis, Ford and GM, are now manufacturing as they move towards a pure EV lineup."
Apparently the "Big boys" are here.

Huh???
Tesla most profitable US Automaker? No, not even close
I can’t even find those words in the quote you provided. Also the story is one and a half years old. They finally had a good year in 2022 AND MAYBE that was the story before it was updated.
Its was short lived however and It’s been downhill since 2022.

GM 23.5 Billion
Tesla 17.5 Billion

Here is GM,

Here is Tesla,