TS/Hurricane Milton

PWMDMD said:
You can't win with the weather. Give the worst-case scenario to minimize loss of life, it's not the worst-case scenario, and you're bad. Don't give the worst-case scenario, and it turns out to be the worst-case, more people die than necessary, and you're bad.

If I had to err on one side or the other, I'd rather have people think I was bad for trying to save as many lives as possible. Let's not forget weather forecasting is not easy, it's probabilistic, playing the odds based on currently changing data.
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I get that, but it’s not as problematic as you may think all the time.
My wife was getting annoyed at me because she likes watching storms and I do too but last night as I picked apart these news reports one by one. Actually I think I posted a lot of it in here LOL

How?
Because what they were reporting was not up-to-date information being posted by our own national hurricane center. The media wanted to hold onto constantly talking about epic title surges of 15 feet over a huge area when the national hurricane center downgraded that to as little as 6 feet and as much as 12, the national hurricane center came out perfect at 8 to 10 feet, but the public in general didn’t know that because they don’t go to the national hurricane center website.
The title surge according to the governor today came in at 8 feet to possibly 10 in the worst location.

Let’s get onto the windspeed when they couldn’t get 100+ mph on the ground windspeeds they would bring up hundred mile an hour wind gusts. Wind gust do not measure hurricane category. But it was almost impossible from them to find the actual windspeeds. I forgot what channel it was but one channel did post them on a map. I was scrambling to get my phone to take a picture and post it in here, but it was too late by the time I got my phone I think I commented earlier that they were maybe up to 90 miles an hour in small select Area on the map

I’m not disagreeing with you but I’m giving you the case of why people do not evacuate or ignore the warnings. If the warnings constantly go over what it takes place people will start to ignore them and they already do.
I mean, it was a big deal of them interviewing people who were staying in their houses and made news stories because they were ignoring the get out or die warnings.

I know it’s a tough call and you are right if it was worse, then those warnings would’ve saved lives.
We just don’t know what worse was supposed to be because everything was embellished. Maybe Florida did see the worst case scenario yesterday but the reporting and mass media hysteria turned it into something else? Anyway, I’m rambling on.🤣
 
alarmguy said:
I get that, but it’s not as problematic as you may think all the time.
My wife was getting annoyed at me because she likes watching storms and I do too but last night as I picked apart these news reports one by one. Actually I think I posted a lot of it in here LOL

How?
Because what they were reporting was not up-to-date information being posted by our own national hurricane center. The media wanted to hold onto constantly talking about epic title surges of 15 feet over a huge area when the national hurricane center downgraded that to as little as 6 feet and as much as 12, the national hurricane center came out perfect at 8 to 10 feet, but the public in general didn’t know that because they don’t go to the national hurricane center website.
The title surge according to the governor today came in at 8 feet to possibly 10 in the worst location.

Let’s get onto the windspeed when they couldn’t get 100+ mph on the ground windspeeds they would bring up hundred mile an hour wind gusts. Wind gust do not measure hurricane category. But it was almost impossible from them to find the actual windspeeds. I forgot what channel it was but one channel did post them on a map. I was scrambling to get my phone to take a picture and post it in here, but it was too late by the time I got my phone I think I commented earlier that they were maybe up to 90 miles an hour in small select Area on the map

I’m not disagreeing with you but I’m giving you the case of why people do not evacuate or ignore the warnings. If the warnings constantly go over what it takes place people will start to ignore them and they already do.
I mean, it was a big deal of them interviewing people who were staying in their houses and made news stories because they were ignoring the get out or die warnings.

I know it’s a tough call and you are right if it was worse, then those warnings would’ve saved lives.
We just don’t know what worse was supposed to be because everything was embellished. Maybe Florida did see the worst case scenario yesterday but the reporting and mass media hysteria turned it into something else? Anyway, I’m rambling on.🤣
Click to expand...
I clicked on the first thing Google found and yeah - it was political - and then the next: blaming big oil - and so on - so right back to the NHC to just look at data …
 
alarmguy said:
I get that, but it’s not as problematic as you may think all the time.
My wife was getting annoyed at me because she likes watching storms and I do too but last night as I picked apart these news reports one by one. Actually I think I posted a lot of it in here LOL

How?
Because what they were reporting was not up-to-date information being posted by our own national hurricane center. The media wanted to hold onto constantly talking about epic title surges of 15 feet over a huge area when the national hurricane center downgraded that to as little as 6 feet and as much as 12, the national hurricane center came out perfect at 8 to 10 feet, but the public in general didn’t know that because they don’t go to the national hurricane center website.
The title surge according to the governor today came in at 8 feet to possibly 10 in the worst location.

Let’s get onto the windspeed when they couldn’t get 100+ mph on the ground windspeeds they would bring up hundred mile an hour wind gusts. Wind gust do not measure hurricane category. But it was almost impossible from them to find the actual windspeeds. I forgot what channel it was but one channel did post them on a map. I was scrambling to get my phone to take a picture and post it in here, but it was too late by the time I got my phone I think I commented earlier that they were maybe up to 90 miles an hour in small select Area on the map

I’m not disagreeing with you but I’m giving you the case of why people do not evacuate or ignore the warnings. If the warnings constantly go over what it takes place people will start to ignore them and they already do.
I mean, it was a big deal of them interviewing people who were staying in their houses and made news stories because they were ignoring the get out or die warnings.

I know it’s a tough call and you are right if it was worse, then those warnings would’ve saved lives.
We just don’t know what worse was supposed to be because everything was embellished. Maybe Florida did see the worst case scenario yesterday but the reporting and mass media hysteria turned it into something else? Anyway, I’m rambling on.🤣
Click to expand...
I think timing is always an issue too. If you really wanted to evacuate, you needed to make plans and start that process 2-3 days before the hurricane made landfall. At that point, the data did point to a 15' storm surge. The day before and the day of landfall, rooms are booked, houses are boarded up, and stragglers are still sitting in traffic on 95N trying to flee. New predictions are coming in 18, 12 or 6 hours before landfall and there's a slight change to the track and now the storm surge is less. You're still talking about devastating winds and real danger to life. Most people are now clear of the path and in relative safety.

Do you now tell everyone about the change in the storm track and risk a significant number of people turning around to now head into the storm's path? What duty do the media and NOAA have to keep as many people out of the path of what is still a deadly hurricane even if it isn't going to be as bad as they thought 18, 12, or 6 hours before landfall?

I don't have a definitive answer but I'd feel awful if my call caused a single person to risk not following through on their original plans and it cost them their lives because I told them it's not going to be as bad as originally predicted.
 
PWMDMD said:
What’s the significance of this?
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They use the NEXRAD stations to broadcast microwave energy to modify the weather. It show up if you can find a unfiltered spot like the College of DuPage. There you can see it in real time.

May just be an outage, have to see how long they are off line as it's one of NOAA's big products. Otherwise they are restricting access through their site.
 
SHOZ said:
They use the NEXRAD stations to broadcast microwave energy to modify the weather. It show up if you can find a unfiltered spot like the College of DuPage. There you can see it in real time.

May just be an outage, have to see how long they are off line as it's one of NOAA's big products. Otherwise they are restricting access through their site.
Click to expand...
I'm going to just throw some rough numbers out here. A Cat 4 hurricane 300 miles in diameter has roughly 2x10^13 pounds of water vapor (20 million million pounds) and produces roughly 6x10^14 watts/day of kinetic energy (200x the daily output of the world). How could NEXRAD microwave energy possibly impact this weather? It'd be like a gnat running into a bullet train at 200mph. You're orders of orders of orders of magnitude off on what is possible.
 
NEXRAD is based on the WSR-88 RADAR system, which is a standard pulsed microwave radar. It transmits the same type of radio energy that has been used all over the world for both military and civilian purposes since microwave RADAR was invented during WWII. If these systems were able to alter weather, it would be widely known. The average power output of the WSR-88 is 1500 watts, on the same order as a household microwave oven.
https://www.qsl.net/n9zia/pdf/wsr-88d.pdf
There is nothing classified in the NWS. If they were doing something nefarious, too many people would know about it to be able to keep it secret.
 
PWMDMD said:
I'm going to just throw some rough numbers out here. A Cat 4 hurricane 300 miles in diameter has roughly 2x10^13 pounds of water vapor (20 million million pounds) and produces roughly 6x10^14 watts/day of kinetic energy (200x the daily output of the world). How could NEXRAD microwave energy possibly impact this weather? It'd be like a gnat running into a bullet train at 200mph. You're orders of orders of orders of magnitude off on what is possible.
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One thing is stir up tornadoes. And they have ships with the radar domes out in the gulf with no apparent mission.
 
mk378 said:
NEXRAD is based on the WSR-88 RADAR system, which is a standard pulsed microwave radar. It transmits the same type of radio energy that has been used all over the world for both military and civilian purposes since microwave RADAR was invented during WWII. If these systems were able to alter weather, it would be widely known. The average power output of the WSR-88 is 1500 watts, on the same order as a household microwave oven.
https://www.qsl.net/n9zia/pdf/wsr-88d.pdf
There is nothing classified in the NWS. If they were doing something nefarious, too many people would know about it to be able to keep it secret.
Click to expand...
So if we get 400,000,000,000 of those radars together and point them in one direction we could possibly impact the path of one hurricane.

Plausibly…definitely plausible.
 
PWMDMD said:
So if we get 400,000,000,000 of those radars together and point them in one direction we could possibly impact the path of one hurricane.

Plausibly…definitely plausible.
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You are relying on the standard government information. Sorry you are so stuck. But that's not my problem.

if they can bust up a cold front and push the storms down the Mississippi in a time of drought, they can also push around hurricane clouds.
 
PWMDMD said:
Um…radar ships that are looking to fill in radar data over the ocean?
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Why are they not identified then if they have official government functions? And someone else was disputing my radar images over the ocean saying we can't get radar out there......
 
SHOZ said:
Why are they not identified then if they have official government functions? And someone else was disputing my radar images over the ocean saying we can't get radar out there......
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Does the military have to broadcast why they're doing whatever it is they're doing? Do private companies have to broadcast why they're doing whatever it is they're doing?
 
SHOZ said:
You are relying on the standard government information. Sorry you are so stuck. But that's not my problem.

if they can bust up a cold front and push the storms down the Mississippi in a time of drought, they can also push around hurricane clouds.
Click to expand...
I'm not stuck - I'm thinking through your scenario but you can't escape the laws of physics and the laws of conservation of energy and angular momentum and Newton's laws of motion, etc - how much energy would you need to apply to a weather system that weighs 20 million million pounds (that's just the water vapor that microwaves can interact with since water is a polar molecule) and has the kinetic energy of 200x the total world output of electricity per day? Where would someone get the electricity to power these devices?
 
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PWMDMD said:
I'm not stuck - I'm thinking through your scenario but you can't escape the laws of physics and the laws of conservation of energy and angular momentum and Newton's laws of motion, etc - how much energy would you need to apply to a weather system that weighs 20 million million pounds (that's just the water vapor that microwaves can interact with since water is a polar molecule) and has the kinetic energy of 200x the total world output of electricity per day? Where would someone get the electricity to power these devices?
Click to expand...
Flux capacitor?

https://www.oreillyauto.com/flux-capacitor
 
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