THIS is Texas? 6º F

[JeffKeryk]

Maybe that should become the standard, make every industry responsible for it's entire waste stream.


Unless voters died because of this, don't think they will remember to do it after a few weeks...

The cost of being prepared is high. Heck, I don't like paying insurance.
I just hope our brothers and sisters in the Great State of Texas are OK.

 

[Jetronic]

so, all it takes is to fix the situation at the well heads and pipelines? should be cheap enough

 

[doitmyself]

wag123, you contend the main problem was due to reduced natural gas supply shutting down the power plants and 50% reduction of wind generated power.

The media states that wind power is only 10% of Texas's total capacity and that the power plants shut down because they were not winterized enough and simply stopped working (regardless of gas supply?).

 

[wag123]

wag123, you contend the main problem was due to reduced natural gas supply shutting down the power plants and reduction of wind generated power.

Yes, the main lack of power problem was due to the reduced natural gas supply because of the extreme (for Texas) cold. Texas has enough natural gas power plants to easily overcome the lack of renewable energy. If the wind generators hadn't gone down, the blow wouldn't have been as severe. There was also a mechanical sensor failure (also due to the cold) at the giant nuclear power plant in South Texas that brought down one of the two generating units. It was a combination of unfortunate circumstances that caused this problem, but the extreme cold is ultimately what caused the entire episode.

 

[wag123]

so, all it takes is to fix the situation at the well heads and pipelines? should be cheap enough

Easier said than done. Most of the politicians and state officials were directly affected by this in their own homes and the $hit has hit the fan. I'm pretty sure that this will be addressed. But, the state's money is very tight right now because of the pandemic. Then there is the question of how much money you throw at this when the odds are low for this sort of thing happening again in the foreseeable future? Also, we wouldn't have had this problem if Texas' power grid was connected to one or both of the national power grids and we could have just purchased the power from outside the state.

 

[Jetronic]

I'm sure the pandemic will be under control by next winter, and I do believe if the problems were there, just a few tweaks will go a long way

 

[RTexasF]

I have not read all 9 pages of this thread, but I think the main problem in Texas is that many many homes and buildings have heat-pumps with resistive heating back-up for when it gets too cold for the heat-pump

That could be so but I've never even seen a house with a heat pump nor heard of one. I've lived in seven cities in Texas and have yet to come across one and that includes shopping for a new house a few times. That doesn't mean they don't exist in homes but are likely more common in large buildings.

 

[SunnynHollister]

That could be so but I've never even seen a house with a heat pump nor heard of one. I've lived in seven cities in Texas and have yet to come across one and that includes shopping for a new house a few times. That doesn't mean they don't exist in homes but are likely more common in large buildings.

Seems like most of the houses I looked at when I moved here are electric heat, and most of those were heat pumps. I haven't lost power, but we have no water.

 

[OVERKILL]

wag123, you contend the main problem was due to reduced natural gas supply shutting down the power plants and 50% reduction of wind generated power.

The media states that wind power is only 10% of Texas's total capacity and that the power plants shut down because they were not winterized enough and simply stopped working (regardless of gas supply?).

Those figures don't sound right, here's the installed capacity:

In terms of nameplate capacity relative to the total:
Gas: 49%
Wind: 28%
Coal: 13%
Nuclear: 5%
Solar: 5%
Hydro: 0.5%
Bio: 0.0%

HOWEVER, dependable capacity they only bank on 7,000MW of wind with a confidence of 45%. It under-performed by 50% on average during the event (due, in part, to the icing situation) but did drop down to below 700MW for a stint.

The media is trying to spin it, likely by using total annual production to make wind sound less significant, but the reality is that almost 30,000MW of wind wasn't expected to show up when the chips were down, which is why it is backed by gas in the first place.

Because wind is unreliable and can't be counted on, and the aforementioned gas capacity failed to deliver due to myriad factors that include a lack of supply, issues at the plants themselves...etc, the wheels came off. You've got a clearly fragile system where the largest generator depends on JIT delivery of its consumable and the 2nd largest isn't expected to provide meaningful capacity. That's not a recipe for success.

 

[ron17571]

Friends in San Antonio had their roof collapse. Welcome to the solar minimum with its dimming sun.

 

[4WD]

The cost of being prepared is high. Heck, I don't like paying insurance.
I just hope our brothers and sisters in the Great State of Texas are OK.

Well, we never got dumped … but AEP (line provider) just left a robocall to turn off end users as they are about to bring on some more juice … ?
All of my family members (3 places in a 150 mile radius) got power back yesterday … None had gas …
I‘m no spring chicken, yet have never wanted/had an all electric home … like belts and suspenders …

 

[ZeeOSix]

Maybe this weather event will break some Texas weather records - ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Texas#Cold_and_snow

Maybe it has snowed more in Florida than Texas - ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_in_Florida

 

[4WD]

Those figures don't sound right, here's the installed capacity:
View attachment 45869

In terms of nameplate capacity relative to the total:
Gas: 49%
Wind: 28%
Coal: 13%
Nuclear: 5%
Solar: 5%
Hydro: 0.5%
Bio: 0.0%

HOWEVER, dependable capacity they only bank on 7,000MW of wind with a confidence of 45%. It under-performed by 50% on average during the event (due, in part, to the icing situation) but did drop down to below 700MW for a stint.

The media is trying to spin it, likely by using total annual production to make wind sound less significant, but the reality is that almost 30,000MW of wind wasn't expected to show up when the chips were down, which is why it is backed by gas in the first place.

Because wind is unreliable and can't be counted on, and the aforementioned gas capacity failed to deliver due to myriad factors that include a lack of supply, issues at the plants themselves...etc, the wheels came off. You've got a clearly fragile system where the largest generator depends on JIT delivery of its consumable and the 2nd largest isn't expected to provide meaningful capacity. That's not a recipe for success.

Nice summary …
One thing hard to measure at this stage is transmission system damage and areas knocked out.
In my sons area, they got lines repaired and after a few minutes of power it was “grid time out” for them

Maybe this weather event will break some Texas weather records - ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Texas#Cold_and_snow

Maybe it has snowed more in Florida than Texas - ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_in_Florida

90% of the ”snow” periods predicted for us turned into rain that froze on stuff, not even sleet really …
… and barely any powder here …

 

[JeffKeryk]

Then there is the question of how much money you throw at this when the odds are low for this sort of thing happening again in the foreseeable future? Also, we wouldn't have had this problem if Texas' power grid was connected to one or both of the national power grids and we could have just purchased the power from outside the state.

That's the key question. Everyone wants low cost, and insurance (being prepared) is expensive. Hopefully no one will die.
It is a tough question, for sure. I guess the last problem was in 2011?
In CA, we know all about cost. PGE burns down our forrests and then tells us what a great job they are doing.
Then they give their execs HUGE bonuses, just before claiming bankruptcy.

Curious... Why is TX not connected to the national grid?

I hope everyone is OK. I flew home out of DFW Love airport Saturday morning, just before everything started...

 

[OVERKILL]

That's the key question. Everyone wants low cost, and insurance (being prepared) is expensive. Hopefully no one will die.
It is a tough question, for sure. I guess the last problem was in 2011?
In CA, we know all about cost. PGE burns down our forrests and then tells us what a great job they are doing.
Then they give their execs HUGE bonuses, just before claiming bankruptcy.

Curious... Why is TX not connected to the national grid?

I hope everyone is OK. I flew home out of DFW Love airport Saturday morning, just before everything started...

Texas has limited (not non-existent) connections to the other grids in order to avoid federal regulations.

 

[4WD]

Texas has limited (not non-existent) connections to the other grids in order to avoid federal regulations.

Just got this from one of our engineers in the Texas panhandle … they have stayed up and in some of the coldest parts of Texas …

https://spp.org/

 

[Leo99]

I hope that after this debacle Texas takes it very serious and upgrades the grid in a thought-fall manner.

Mother nature just does not do things just once, and she'll come back at some point w/ same or worst conditions.

What is the incentive for the people that own the grid to upgrade it?

 

[4WD]

Spotted a few emergency generators on the highway … most of them were CAT or Cummins … one Kohler … did not see a single emergency wind turbine

 

[Jackson_Slugger]

Those figures don't sound right, here's the installed capacity:
View attachment 45869

In terms of nameplate capacity relative to the total:
Gas: 49%
Wind: 28%
Coal: 13%
Nuclear: 5%
Solar: 5%
Hydro: 0.5%
Bio: 0.0%

HOWEVER, dependable capacity they only bank on 7,000MW of wind with a confidence of 45%. It under-performed by 50% on average during the event (due, in part, to the icing situation) but did drop down to below 700MW for a stint.

The media is trying to spin it, likely by using total annual production to make wind sound less significant, but the reality is that almost 30,000MW of wind wasn't expected to show up when the chips were down, which is why it is backed by gas in the first place.

Because wind is unreliable and can't be counted on, and the aforementioned gas capacity failed to deliver due to myriad factors that include a lack of supply, issues at the plants themselves...etc, the wheels came off. You've got a clearly fragile system where the largest generator depends on JIT delivery of its consumable and the 2nd largest isn't expected to provide meaningful capacity. That's not a recipe for success.

What is "ercot" and their source for this?

Nevermind, just saw what "ercot" is? What does ENRON think of all this?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewal...for-texas-electricity-crisis/?sh=5f5c14ba21b3

Wind isn't 28%, it's 13% at most...

 

[gfh77665]

I just hope our brothers and sisters in the Great State of Texas are OK.

There are a few isolated examples where deaths have occurred, like one guy who was begged by authorities over and over to come in out of the cold but he refused, then died. A hospitalized family got CO2 poisoning by lighting up a BBQ grill indoors, etc. Except for these Darwin events, the vast majority of Texans will not fall to pieces. We are as resilient as they come. We overcame hurricanes and floods, and will overcome this little cold snap that is quickly going away. Thanks.