Tesla's "unboxed" manufacturing - will it succeed?

[JeffKeryk]

I worked in manufacturing almost all my career. High tech companies are actually manufacturing companies for the most part. You design a chip, model the process but ultimately production is the goal. The vehicle assembly line has been a linear process from the Highland Park days. The unboxed approach allows for simultaneous sub assemblies that come together in final assembly.

Check out this article if you are interested. It is sketchy at best. If you are familiar with manufacturing, ERP, BOMS, Operations, procurement, etc, I would be interested in your thoughts.

 

[GMBoy]

As a recently retired (2022) GM salary employee and having been in engineering, quality, material and production roles I really enjoyed that article!

 

[AZjeff]

Having spent 17 years in manufacturing down in the dirt on the production floor, most of it as a product line manager I observed you can only make incremental changes in efficiency unless there’s a big change in the process. Sometimes the changes don’t work as the engineers planned. Will be interesting to watch how they do and I would stay away from those first cars going out the door.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Having spent 17 years in manufacturing down in the dirt on the production floor, most of it as a product line manager I observed you can only make incremental changes in efficiency unless there’s a big change in the process. Sometimes the changes don’t work as the engineers planned. Will be interesting to watch how they do and I would stay away from those first cars going out the door.

The initial line will probably be in Tejas for the "Model 2" $25K car, or whatever they call it. Once acceptable results are achieved, the Monterrey plant assembly lines will follow.

Better, by definition, requires change and means different. From an operations standpoint, breaking down the single linear line to 4 sub lines allows for easier maintenance, upgrade, fixes, etc.

I toured NUMMI several times. I will be interested in seeing how, and if, this pans out.
Go big or go home!

 

[KGMtech]

Biggest issue is going to be paint matching. For years the front and rear plastic bumpers, fuel doors, lower trim pieces have been made and colour matched at supplier locations hours & days away from final assembly plants but doors, hoods, trunk and roof are painted at final assembly plant. I hope this works if only because it would open the doors (pun intended) for more suppliers to quote parts that only final assembly has done to this point.

 

[BHopkins]

I spent almost my entire career in production, with the last 35 years of it in high volume automotive component assembly. So to me, this is an Interesting read. But it is pretty short on fact, and loaded with speculation. Without knowing exactly what Elon et al has in mind, it is hard to really understand how it will work. That said, their description of the "unboxed" production method doesn't sound all that new to me.

In the Lean Manufacturing course that I took at work about 15 years ago, I recall studying and doing small workshops where one of the processes we studied, was to build sub assemblies off the primary, or parent, assembly line, then introduced the sub assemblies back into the primary assembly line so they could be built into the final product. The concept described in the article seems similar, except they are speculating that the body will be broke down into sub assemblies, and brought together at the end of the process.

For a company that struggles with understanding why the customer is not happy with the final fit and finish, I can see how they may find a process like this not only acceptable, but desirable.

It seems rather amusing when Musk called this "far more advanced than any automotive manufacturing system in the world, by a significant margin,”. It just feels like another dose of Musk hyperbole, that we have heard so many times before. I doubt I will ever forget, when Tesla was preparing to put together a totally robotic assembly line in Fremont. They showed pictures of brand new robots all in rows, as far as you could see.

I think most of us know how that went. It was a massive failure, resulting in the temporary tent assembly line, which was almost entirely hand assembly, and extremely labor intensive, so they could ship cars and pay the bills. Eventually, they put together the new assembly line, but only after major redesign, ending up with a production line that really wasn't much more automated than what you would see in a Toyota or Kia plant.

But they have had their successes too. The mega presses seem to be working for them. They will never know if they don't try. It just doesn't sound all that innovative, to what a lot of companies are already doing. I know it has been a few years since I was in the Fremont assembly plant, but from what I saw at that time, Tesla has a long way to go in fully understanding and implementing lean manufacturing. If they are really looking to reduce cost, perhaps they ought to do that first.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I spent almost my entire career in production, with the last 35 years of it in high volume automotive component assembly. So to me, this is an Interesting read. But it is pretty short on fact, and loaded with speculation. Without knowing exactly what Elon et al has in mind, it is hard to really understand how it will work. That said, their description of the "unboxed" production method doesn't sound all that new to me.

In the Lean Manufacturing course that I took at work about 15 years ago, I recall studying and doing small workshops where one of the processes we studied, was to build sub assemblies off the primary, or parent, assembly line, then introduced the sub assemblies back into the primary assembly line so they could be built into the final product. The concept described in the article seems similar, except they are speculating that the body will be broke down into sub assemblies, and brought together at the end of the process.

For a company that struggles with understanding why the customer is not happy with the final fit and finish, I can see how they may find a process like this not only acceptable, but desirable.

It seems rather amusing when Musk called this "far more advanced than any automotive manufacturing system in the world, by a significant margin,”. It just feels like another dose of Musk hyperbole, that we have heard so many times before. I doubt I will ever forget, when Tesla was preparing to put together a totally robotic assembly line in Fremont. They showed pictures of brand new robots all in rows, as far as you could see.

I think most of us know how that went. It was a massive failure, resulting in the temporary tent assembly line, which was almost entirely hand assembly, and extremely labor intensive, so they could ship cars and pay the bills. Eventually, they put together the new assembly line, but only after major redesign, ending up with a production line that really wasn't much more automated than what you would see in a Toyota or Kia plant.

But they have had their successes too. The mega presses seem to be working for them. They will never know if they don't try. It just doesn't sound all that innovative, to what a lot of companies are already doing. I know it has been a few years since I was in the Fremont assembly plant, but from what I saw at that time, Tesla has a long way to go in fully understanding and implementing lean manufacturing. If they are really looking to reduce cost, perhaps they ought to do that first.

Totally agree this is an extension of the pre-tested sub-assembly concept that has been in place and improved upon since the 1980's. But no one has deviated from the linear, long assembly line model.

The article is very short on detail and full of speculation; Tesla has not released on their plan. But like the Giga Press innovation that replaced hundreds of welds, fasteners and glues, not to mention individual parts, others will follow if it works.

I disagree with your take on customer feelings on fit and finish. Owners love their Teslas and fit and finish is way down on their complaint list.

The original highly automated Fremont lines for the Model 3 nearly killed Tesla. Those were Musk's words on a 60 Minutes article. Today he has the most modern car factories in the world. Highly efficient. The Tesla adoption of vertical integration flies the face of the outsourcing model so prevalent today. Tesla continued to grow when traditional car companies were handcuffed by the chip shortage. Tesla is the only car company that codes its own firmware. So yeah, in many respects Tesla is far ahead of any other car company. You are mistaken about lean manufacturing. Tesla shares many parts across their platforms and offers very few options. This allows for greatly simplified BOMs, procurement and operations. Their lack of complexity allows for easier BOM revision. This is all part of lean manufacturing concepts.

 

[1000MPH]

I love Tesla but that article is giving me Saturn vibes.

 

[BHopkins]

Totally agree this is an extension of the pre-tested sub-assembly concept that has been in place and improved upon since the 1980's. But no one has deviated from the linear, long assembly line model.

The article is very short on detail and full of speculation; Tesla has not released on their plan. But like the Giga Press innovation that replaced hundreds of welds, fasteners and glues, not to mention individual parts, others will follow if it works.

I disagree with your take on customer feelings on fit and finish. Owners love their Teslas and fit and finish is way down on their complaint list.

The original highly automated Fremont lines for the Model 3 nearly killed Tesla. Those were Musk's words on a 60 Minutes article. Today he has the most modern car factories in the world. Highly efficient. The Tesla adoption of vertical integration flies the face of the outsourcing model so prevalent today. Tesla continued to grow when traditional car companies were handcuffed by the chip shortage. Tesla is the only car company that codes its own firmware. So yeah, in many respects Tesla is far ahead of any other car company. You are mistaken about lean manufacturing. Tesla shares many parts across their platforms and offers very few options. This allows for greatly simplified BOMs, procurement and operations. Their lack of complexity allows for easier BOM revision. This is all part of lean manufacturing concepts.

Yes, I'm aware that Tesla customers will acknowledge that fit and finish on their cars is sub-par, but at the same time, this is generally a non-issue to them. To me, that says more about the main Tesla customer base, than it does to suggest that Tesla fit and finish is up to par with their competitors.

It is good to hear that Tesla has embraced lean manufacturing, since I spent time in the Fremont plant. It is hard to imagine that they have made that much progress in such a short time, as lean manufacturing tends to be a long journey of continuous improvements, each building on the previous improvements. A strong foundation can be put in place fairly easily, but building on it takes time.

Oh, thanks for not calling me out on the mega press goof. forgot it is giga. Of course.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Yes, I'm aware that Tesla customers will acknowledge that fit and finish on their cars is sub-par, but at the same time, this is generally a non-issue to them. To me, that says more about the main Tesla customer base, than it does to suggest that Tesla fit and finish is up to par with their competitors.

It is good to hear that Tesla has embraced lean manufacturing, since I spent time in the Fremont plant. It is hard to imagine that they have made that much progress in such a short time, as lean manufacturing tends to be a long journey of continuous improvements, each building on the previous improvements. A strong foundation can be put in place fairly easily, but building on it takes time.

Oh, thanks for not calling me out on the mega press goof. forgot it is giga. Of course.

Interestingly, when the Fremont plant was being put together by Tesla, they put out full page ads in the SJ Mercury-News encouraging ex-Nummi workers to apply. Musk knew Toyota spent a lot of money training them in Deming's Japanese Mfg System.

 

[supton]

Good bad, not sure. Instead of a line where a stoppage could hold everyone up, a problem car can be isolated. But will an assembly tech be multi trained and do it all the installation of the modules, or will they jog from one assembly area to the next so as to do the one thing they do well? These boxes, how will they get to each assembly station? JIT delivery teams roaming around?

Short on details.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Not particularly new - possibly to the next level. For 50 years the engine/transmission were assembled soemwhere else, was stuffed in the the rolling chassis, then the rolling chasis is married to the body at a point shortly after "body in white". In the case of a unibody the shell itself goes down one line and the doors are assembled with their windows and trim, etc seperately typically from hanging racks, etc.

Di-casting 400 parts at once eliminates a bunch of welding robots etc - but its just an improvement over the past process - not a new process altogether.

Conceptually it should work. Replacing any of those 400 die cast parts in the future will be more complex

 

[JeffKeryk]

It is an extension of pretested sub assemblies. The difference and benefit is parallel work vs serial work. Predecessors and successors are minimized in parallel assembly. In process testing can replace some final assembly testing. Factory footprint can be reduced (CAPEX savings).

In traditional car manufacturing, the assembly travels down a long line, with components added from 4 sides as well as dropped down from above and even up from the bottom. Assembly is dependent on predecessors and successors. Multiple smaller dedicated work centers are far more efficient. Potential use of automation is increased.

In traditional assembly, paint is applied near the end. A key reason Henry Ford chose black is because it dried faster. Now the paint is applied in a separate operation, independent of the other processes. Paint booths can be smaller and optimized. The traditional paint process additive dwell time is nearly eliminated. I believe some disassembly and then reassembly is required in traditional line painting, not sure.

There is much more, as this is a completely new car built using a new process. Expect slow progress; there will be mistakes. There are no guarantees.

Goto the 3:40 mark of this video.

 

[KE7JFF]

One of the articles I read about Chrysler during its revival under Lee Iacocca in the 80s was actually an concept of an car built in modules by passing around suppliers then coming to final assembly in an plant that was 1/4 the size.

 

[JeffKeryk]

One of the articles I read about Chrysler during its revival under Lee Iacocca in the 80s was actually an concept of an car built in modules by passing around suppliers then coming to final assembly in an plant that was 1/4 the size.

Yes, and it was a disaster as I recall. In manufacturing, vendor co-ordination is critical and difficult.

 

[AZjeff]

The company I worked for sent a young engineer to learn 3P lean manufacturing. He tried to implement it but management wasn’t all in and workers were complaining so it fizzled out and things went back to normal.