Tesla Milestone: 5 Millionth Car Manufactured

[UncleDave]

It depends on what you mean by "work".

It drives better than a 16 year old with newly issued license for sure. It cannot avoid crazy drivers in another car for sure, just like other human drivers on the road. I have to say on my recent trip out of SF that takes me 30 mins, I see 5 Waymo and 2 Cruise, so those cars are literally running all over the place already instead of just "a tiny number of cars". Maybe the same car going around again and again should not be counted as "just a tiny number".

I think sensors bolted all over is a good thing, instead of being cheap and rely on cameras alone.

Is it perfect? Definitely not, just like the initial roads weren't when cars first came out. Over time we found that we have no other way but to add center dividers, splitting roads into "lanes", traffic signals and signs, rules and fines, etc. I would not be surprised we will find out eventually we have to modify our roads again for self driving.

The main question to me would be who will pay for it, and where to modify. So a geofence area of improvement and user (self driving car's owners or renters) pay for it via a fee would be my preference. You are charged for some toll to pay for the road improvements until it becomes national standard and self driving becomes patent free and everyone has one. You can't certify something until that something becomes "geofenced". Same as issuing a driver license, you test them based on "road test" instead of off roading, and insurance companies don't pay for damage if you go off road and damage your cars, that's "geofence" as well, but it makes it easier for everyone.

Work can be defined a bunch of ways, but in this example the standard people seem to accept is accidents per miles driven.

Compare Waymo car miles driven vs everyone else's fleet with autopilot engaged and it's tiny and out of whack with the other guys.

Who will pay for geofenced data - you will.
(or the persona that utilizes the service)

Ultimately to make a geofenced system work you need to pay for map maintenance.
The real time system makes own map based on real time input. It may come from a camera a map, a combo - or it may come from other cars on the planned route that have driven though that area prior.

I believe both systems - non geo, and geofenced " autopilots" will ultimately be subscription based. (Bummer)

Am I good with sensors - sure , camera, radar, lidar - just not in the shape of giant cones adding 20 points of drag whistling down a freeway - Waymo cars are basically moon buggies. Bolt on vs built in is not my preference.

What do you mean by certifying? Do you mean the author of that particular system?

 

[PandaBear]

Work can be defined a bunch of ways, but in this example the standard people seem to accept is accidents per miles driven.

Compare Waymo car miles driven vs everyone else's fleet with autopilot engaged and it's tiny and out of whack with the other guys.

Who will pay for geofenced data - you will.
(or the persona that utilizes the service)

Ultimately to make a geofenced system work you need to pay for map maintenance.
The real time system makes own map based on real time input. It may come from a camera a map, a combo - or it may come from other cars on the planned route that have driven though that area prior.

I believe both systems - non geo, and geofenced " autopilots" will ultimately be subscription based. (Bummer)

Am I good with sensors - sure , camera, radar, lidar - just not in the shape of giant cones adding 20 points of drag whistling down a freeway - Waymo cars are basically moon buggies. Bolt on vs built in is not my preference.

What do you mean by certifying? Do you mean the author of that particular system?

My definition of work: you get from point A to point B and insurance companies are willing to insure it for any possible damage due to the self driving's fault (others being identical to your current insurance). Fun fact is as a whole we are all accident per miles driven. You are, I am, everyone is worth a number and will get into accident per miles driven as a whole.

The point of Waymo's miles driven is deterministic. It drives and test different condition like a car company test in different temperature, humidity, fuel quality, timing, and then come up with what to do at each condition. The way Tesla's self driving (beta) work is just throw it out there and let people report problem or see what crashes, what doesn't crash. It can have 10M miles of self driving on the same boring roads and no self driving on weird incidents (3am, lunar eclipse, bad street light, idiot brake check in front of you, etc) and conditions. You don't know what people don't test on and people don't test what they don't normally do, until they do.... So, it is a matter of whether Waymo find out problem first or Tesla's user find out the problem first, and whether they live to tell when they find out, with no engineers and test drivers there to help stop things before it gets worse.

You bet things will be subscription based or obsoleted fast, like GPS map, or new bug fix (i.e. traffic cone on hood pranks), or new transmitter on traffic light for sensor from traffic light to help self driving 10 years from now (for example), or insurance banning certain algorithm as too risky and Waymo / Tesla has to update to comply.

To me certify is whether someone will insure the self driving like a regular driver, taking on any lithigation when and if self driving screw up like any business or human may, or any defense litigation for money grab by hostile lawyers for no apparent reason, etc. If someone will insure it like a normal human driver then I consider it "certified".

The math has to work out eventually. So this has to reduce accidents enough and labor cost enough (hence commercial driving first) to pay for the constant update of the geofenced map, road update, R&D, litigation, etc. I can see most of the payment come from labor cost savings instead of residential / consumer drivers buying it as a cool toy. This is why for this to work it will definitely come from commercial operations (fleet) first. The labor cost saving alone will likely encourage someone to pay for road improvement on geofenced road (say UPS pay to add reflectors on a highway between 2 of their hubs, with no tax dollar used at all).

 

[97prizm]

Tesla is worth what it is because of Elon. Replace him with another auto executive and it will be priced like one, and people would not buy one if they don't have the cool factor.

It shocks me people continue to buy Teslas however.. Their satisfaction is down and the number of people who will purchase a second or third Tesla have dramatically reduced. 2018/18 Tesla had 96% of buyers would purchase again. 2023 it's close to 78% thats a huge problem. I worked for a large hotel for seven years. I worked to get many repeat business and local college parents to be repeat guests. Once you lose your core audience your bread and butter so to speak it's much more difficult to regain new long-term customers. Many people are disgusted that if there's a serious problem i.e. your supercharging or fsd gets turned off good luck getting it reinstated. A lady

 

[97prizm]

It shocks me people continue to buy Teslas however.. Their satisfaction is down and the number of people who will purchase a second or third Tesla have dramatically reduced. 2018/18 Tesla had 96% of buyers would purchase again. 2023 it's close to 78% thats a huge problem. I worked for a large hotel for seven years. I worked to get many repeat business and local college parents to be repeat guests. Once you lose your core audience your bread and butter so to speak it's much more difficult to regain new long-term customers. Many people are disgusted that if there's a serious problem i.e. your supercharging or fsd gets turned off good luck getting it reinstated. A lady

A lady in Scottsdale recently had her supercharging turned off because Tesla "thought " it had been in an accident when it clearly hadn't. It took a news stations to make a big enough deal for Tesla to actually care about fixing something they did.
However, during the process, Tesla technicians turned off the key feature that allows Tesla drivers to supercharge their vehicles in 15 minutes. Erickson said she didn’t find out until she stopped at a supercharger station and could not charge her Tesla.

“That’s when people saw me and came up to me, and people were trying to troubleshoot it,” she said. “But nobody had ever seen anything like it.”

Tesla had intentionally deactivated Erickson’s supercharger feature for safety reasons. When replacing Erickson’s battery, the company said they discovered that Carfax listed her car as having a salvaged title due to being totaled in a collision.

As a result, Tesla removed the supercharger feature as a safety precaution.

 

[DwightFrye]

The point remains that not only has Tesla built and sold 5 million electric vehicles but they built a million of those just in the last 6 months. How many will be built in 2024 ? How many will Ford and GM build ?

Regarding some of the issues brought up above, statistically they are irrelevant. And like most polls, the figure of "only" 78% of Tesla buyers saying they would buy again is meaningless without knowing the sample size and exactly how the poll was worded.
And it would be interesting to see similar polling for those buyers of dogs like the Mach-E and Bolt. I'm guessing Ford and GM would be as pleased as a pig in excrement to get numbers close to 78%.

 

[demarpaint]

A lady in Scottsdale recently had her supercharging turned off because Tesla "thought " it had been in an accident when it clearly hadn't. It took a news stations to make a big enough deal for Tesla to actually care about fixing something they did.
However, during the process, Tesla technicians turned off the key feature that allows Tesla drivers to supercharge their vehicles in 15 minutes. Erickson said she didn’t find out until she stopped at a supercharger station and could not charge her Tesla.

“That’s when people saw me and came up to me, and people were trying to troubleshoot it,” she said. “But nobody had ever seen anything like it.”

Tesla had intentionally deactivated Erickson’s supercharger feature for safety reasons. When replacing Erickson’s battery, the company said they discovered that Carfax listed her car as having a salvaged title due to being totaled in a collision.

As a result, Tesla removed the supercharger feature as a safety precaution.

Too much control can be a bad thing, a very bad thing. OTOH I wonder if that feature works for people with late loan payments, that could be a good thing, especially for banks and those holding notes on the cars. Maybe they can brick the car in someone's driveway for late payments, or at work and embarrass the owner. I'm sure a lot of people wouldn't be happy about that, and I'm reasonably sure it can be done. Maybe in time it will.

 

[PandaBear]

It shocks me people continue to buy Teslas however.. Their satisfaction is down and the number of people who will purchase a second or third Tesla have dramatically reduced. 2018/18 Tesla had 96% of buyers would purchase again. 2023 it's close to 78% thats a huge problem. I worked for a large hotel for seven years. I worked to get many repeat business and local college parents to be repeat guests. Once you lose your core audience your bread and butter so to speak it's much more difficult to regain new long-term customers. Many people are disgusted that if there's a serious problem i.e. your supercharging or fsd gets turned off good luck getting it reinstated. A lady

I don't think you can compare 2018 to 2023 as their customer base grew so much. The enthusiast customers have very different expectation than the new one once they becomes a lot more affordable (relatively speaking compare to other cars during the shortage).

They do have customer service problems, and that is something they can totally fix even if their cars aren't designed right.

 

[Cujet]

It shocks me people continue to buy Teslas

Funny!

On a serious note, I'd purchase a Tesla in a heartbeat if:

A) They worked well on one day 1300 mile high speed highway trips (they don't)
B) They were priced affordably, A Model S is still 2-3x what a similarly sized Impala was.
C) I was younger, had more income and was not retiring this year.

 

[Torrid]

B) They were priced affordably, A Model S is still 2-3x what a similarly sized Impala was.

I think you'd have a hard time finding two more dissimilar cars with the same amount of doors, that and the Impala is no more and Tesla isn't struggling to sell cars. The Model S is the wrong one if you're looking for value for money with a Tesla badge on it.

 

[97prizm]

Too much control can be a bad thing, a very bad thing. OTOH I wonder if that feature works for people with late loan payments, that could be a good thing, especially for banks and those holding notes on the cars. Maybe they can brick the car in someone's driveway for late payments, or at work and embarrass the owner. I'm sure a lot of people wouldn't be happy about that, and I'm reasonably sure it can be done. Maybe in time it will.

Ford has you beat.
"

Ford Applies to Patent Self-Repossessing Cars That Can Drive Themselves Away​

Alternatively, the car could drive itself to a junkyard if it costs too much to repossess it. Yes, really."

 

[demarpaint]

Ford has you beat.
"

Ford Applies to Patent Self-Repossessing Cars That Can Drive Themselves Away​

Alternatively, the car could drive itself to a junkyard if it costs too much to repossess it. Yes, really."

LOL I forgot about them.

 

[alarmguy]

...

Regarding some of the issues brought up above, statistically they are irrelevant. And like most polls, the figure of "only" 78% of Tesla buyers saying they would buy again is meaningless without knowing the sample size and exactly how the poll was worded.
And it would be interesting to see similar polling for those buyers of dogs like the Mach-E and Bolt. I'm guessing Ford and GM would be as pleased as a pig in excrement to get numbers close to 78%.

I agree when it comes to "polls"
But your statement about Mach-E and the Bolt is even more irrelevant and based on nothing at all. True you used the words guessing but that does not diminish the "spirit" of your post.
The fact is, Satisfaction Ratings on the Mach-E from Consumer Reports surpasses every model that Tesla makes.
The other fact is, Satisfaction on the Bolt (which is truly an economy car) matches all of Teslas models.

So the point of my post is your "guessing" is incorrect.

Now on the overall scores, true the Bolt is bottom of the barrel in CR ratings but not the satisfaction score, also not fair to compare an economy car with the luxury car.
The Tesla Model 3 overall score is significantly higher than the Mach-e Tesla Model 3 78 vs 66 for the Mach-E but interestingly the Tesla Models S is 62.

We can give a "Hats Off" to Kia EV6
Keeping in mind Tesla as about to face an onslaught of vehicles like it.
We have to admit, it is a gorgeous vehicle.
WIth that said, its scores blow away every EV made no matter the price.
The point is anyone can make EVs and the entry point is even easier right now until the legacy's catch up. But they will catchup and the South Korean Manufacturers seem to at the current time have the formula.
I have to agree with Consumer Reports. The Kia (and the Hyundai) have the fresh look right now. No one comes close in this rating, not even sure if I ever saw a car this high? Next closest is BMW i4 at 84

 

[DwightFrye]

What is the sample size on those Mach-E's and Bolts ?
It sure isn't anywhere near that of a million Teslas.

I agree that the Korean manufacturers are making substantial inroads into the EV marketplace. But let's see just how satisfied those owners of the 2023 Kia EV6 are after about 3 years.

Also, I highly suspect that the ratings by those owners are greatly influenced by said owners being smug about owning an EV that is not a Tesla. We'll see how they feel after living with those cars a few years. If they still have a high satisfaction rating, that's good for the industry and will keep Tesla on their toes. And it sets the bar for Ford and GM. Which I also suspect they will be having a difficult time hurdling in the next few years.

 

[alarmguy]

What is the sample size on those Mach-E's and Bolts ?
It sure isn't anywhere near that of a million Teslas.

I agree that the Korean manufacturers are making substantial inroads into the EV marketplace. But let's see just how satisfied those owners of the 2023 Kia EV6 are after about 3 years.

Also, I highly suspect that the ratings by those owners are greatly influenced by said owners being smug about owning an EV that is not a Tesla. We'll see how they feel after living with those cars a few years. If they still have a high satisfaction rating, that's good for the industry and will keep Tesla on their toes. And it sets the bar for Ford and GM. Which I also suspect they will be having a difficult time hurdling in the next few years.

Do you have a survey of a million Tesla owners?
I dont think so, not sure of why the comment.

 

[UncleDave]

The Hyundai lineup has 2 achilles heels that take it out of contention.

No NACs- this relegates every road trip to a dice roll. CCS almost never fails to disappoint.
People switch just because of this.

Cabin HVAC is highly affected by DC fast charging.
Having to turn HVAC off while charging to get its max charge rate is both inconvenient and uncomfortable in hot weather.

GM has this same cabin HVAC problem, but worse charging than just about everyone, at least you'll be able to find and navigate to a working charger in the future.

Still Hyundai is killing Toyota, GM and Ford.

The big disappointments are the Toyota and GM product - which so much extra time in R&D than everyone else took you'd think they'd be class leading in all areas, but they are shipping (sort of) an experience on par or worse than a decade old car.

Just goes to show (despite all the claims by armchair warriors that anyone can do it) that even if you can make a great ice car, it doesn't mean you can make a competitive EV.

 

[alarmguy]

…

Just goes to show (despite all the claims by armchair warriors that anyone can do it) that even if you can make a great ice car, it doesn't mean you can make a competitive EV.

I think maybe you’re getting a little ahead of yourself. The year is 2023.
Let’s see what happens by 2027

 

[UncleDave]

I think maybe you’re getting a little ahead of yourself. The year is 2023.
Let’s see what happens by 2027

I've been hearing stuff like that for about a decade now, but I hope they all get it together. Better for us if they can.

 

[Fabulous50s]

It's all about control.

Who wants a vehicle that lasts 20+ years anyway and is cheap to keep on the road and reliable?

Hmmm, no one I guess...

 

[JeffKeryk]

It's all about control.

Who wants a vehicle that lasts 20+ years anyway and is cheap to keep on the road and reliable?

Hmmm, no one I guess...

Yep. Our Model 3 needs almost no maintenance. Cabin air filter and blue warsher water. I did rotate the tires once...
Dang reliable for the last 5 years anyway.

 

[The_Jeff]

Now GM and Ford are dealing with a UAW strike that has outrageous demands for hourly pay and pension benefits.

Do you consider $19.10 an hour reasonable for putting front ends on Broncos? My 16 year old makes within a hair of that in training to serve coffee at Starbucks.