Tesla had 308,600 deliveries. Blockbuster Q4; shattering forecast. Have mercy.

No naysayers? Kinda disappointed, c'mon team!
So what about next year? Teslas has seen exponential growth in its 10 years of sales.
What was the big thing in 2021? Shanghai ramping. And continuing to do do... Fremont adding capacity.
So in 2022, we will see Berlin and Austin. Austin has massive capacity. Berlin offers huge US delivery to Europe cost savings along with capacity.
1.5M vehicles? Heck, Shanghai is already at 70K per quarter and growing.
Conservatively, can Tesla achieve another exponential gain? 50% growth would seem nothing as compared to 2021's 87%.

Profitability? Fixed costs spread over more and more cars? Economies of scale, baby!
Tesla's margins offer huge leverage against their competition. Tesla can lower prices and make money, others are already margin constrained, more so with EVs.
This is a business case, just in case anyone was wondering. Forecasts matter.

Interesting times ahead with this great American company. Warts and all.
 
JeffKeryk said:
No naysayers? Kinda disappointed, c'mon team!
So what about next year? Teslas has seen exponential growth in its 10 years of sales.
What was the big thing in 2021? Shanghai ramping. And continuing to do do... Fremont adding capacity.
So in 2022, we will see Berlin and Austin. Austin has massive capacity. Berlin offers huge US delivery to Europe cost savings along with capacity.
1.5M vehicles? Heck, Shanghai is already at 70K per quarter and growing.
Conservatively, can Tesla achieve another exponential gain? 50% growth would seem nothing as compared to 2021's 87%.

Profitability? Fixed costs spread over more and more cars? Economies of scale, baby!
Tesla's margins offer huge leverage against their competition. Tesla can lower prices and make money, others are already margin constrained, more so with EVs.
This is a business case, just in case anyone was wondering. Forecasts matter.

Interesting times ahead with this great American company. Warts and all.
Click to expand...
It's great to see an American company at the top of automotive sector again where GM or Ford SHOULD be.
 
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I was guessing that the year end total would be 920,000 vehicles so was quite excited to see the number up above 936,000. And that was with Elon telling his employees not to go nuts trying to ship as many cars as possible by the end of the last quarter.

The backlog to buy a new Tesla is currently more than 3 months. The people that ordered the cars before the the price increases will be buying them at the old price. That means that cars delivered in Q2 or Q3 of this year will be even more profitable than cars delivered in Q4 of 2021. The demand for EV's selling in the $50K to $70K range and even higher is pretty astounding. Just wait until the sub- $30K car is in production and all of those urban dwellers who don't need super long range or a bigger vehicle, or can't spend $50K or more on a car start putting down deposits.

Tesla is a money generating machine. That money will go into more R&D and new factories around the world. Ford and GM might as well start thinking about buying Tesla chassis' and battery packs (when the time comes that Tesla can produce enough to sell to other automakers anyway) and putting their own bodies on them to sell to brand loyal customers because the chances of them catching up with Tesla become smaller every quarter. Stellantis ? Well, they can always sell Jeeps but they don't have much else going for them.

We'll see how the Japanese makers do. They are a determined bunch. The Germans ? The VW group has pretty deep pockets but they too are several years behind. We'll see how things look by 2025, that should be the year that things have really shaken out.
 
Please explain how Tesla can pump out a big surprise of units and the rest of the automotive sector can barely put units on a car lot?
 
JeffKeryk said:
TSLA is up 10%. Works for me.
Click to expand...
$123 billion of market cap increase today alone at this moment. That is the entire value of GM plus another roughly 35 billion dollars of walking around money. From one day of gains. Its a bit nuts but hey thats what happens to TSLA.
 
dareo said:
Please explain how Tesla can pump out a big surprise of units and the rest of the automotive sector can barely put units on a car lot?
Click to expand...
Fair question. If I were presenting data analysis to exec staff, I would need to prepare more throughly, but here are some things to consider...
The current market:
  • 1M cars annually is still a small number in comparison to ICE vehicles in general, but is a huge number if you look at the price point Tesla plays in. They are eating MBZ, Lexus, BMW, etc lunch. Where's Caddy?
  • The semiconductor chip shortage - The low availability of competitor cars sends customers right to Tesla, even thought you have to wait to get one.
  • Gas prices - Even though Teslas are expensive, people, right or wrong, think of EVs.
  • When you think of EV, what comes to mind? There is only 1 answer.
  • Teslas are trendy. Maybe not on BITOG, but we are a tiny percentage of the market. People wanna be cool, and Teslas are hot.
  • Younger buyers who grew up in the digital age want software based stuff. ICE is too yesterday.
Tesla as a company and their business model:
  • The semiconductor chip shortage. Tesla practices vertical integration. They are the only company who authors their own firmware; the low level code that defines a chip's capabilities. Everyone else is dependent on NVIDIA and others. Tesla was able to repurpose existing chips while others we caught with their pants down. The high tech advantage cannot be over emphasized.
  • Tesla owns and controls its supply chain to a greater degree than other car companies. Vertical integration yet again...
  • Direct sales model - In general, people distrust dealerships.
  • Direct sales model - There is little added value to buying a vehicle at a franchised dealership. The cost of those beautiful buildings and staff comes right outa your pocket and kills profitability. Direct sales is the future. Plus people like it.
  • Tesla is a better run company is so many aspects. The purpose of a publicly owned company is to maximize the waelth of the shareholders. That means stock price.
  • Profit margin may exceed 30% when the numbers come in. The legacy companies tend to run around 7%. Tesla's profits are the envy of the car maker world.
Intangibles:
  • Compromise was never an option; Musk and his team were going to create a fast, good looking, efficient and desirable electric car, or nothing. While BITOG may disagree, owners flat out love their Teslas. Most EVs and Hybrids are rather odd looking.
  • From the beginning, Tesla decided to build something new. They believe success doesn’t come from following a trend. Leaders don't follow; they lead.
  • Elon is the consumate engineer and salesman. Perfect for something new; market disruption.
  • He is fearless. Musk was nearly broke in early 2018 when the Model 3 lines kept stopping due to the robot issues. So he put up enormus tents in the parking lot and went for broke. The rest is history.
 
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There is another factor, and it is a big one, especially going forward.
Fremont was obviously the 1st plant; they were in startup mode and learning. Lotta mistakes. Lotta compromises.
Giga Shanghai is much improved; it benefited from Fremont's lessons. Much more efficient. Better cars from what I understand.
Well, here comes Austin and Berlin. These will be the most advanced, efficient car manufacturing factories in the world.

If other car makers are actually looking at what Tesla is building (plants) they should be terrified. And they are.
 
DwightFrye said:
Ford and GM might as well start thinking about buying Tesla chassis' and battery packs (when the time comes that Tesla can produce enough to sell to other automakers anyway) and putting their own bodies on them to sell to brand loyal customers because the chances of them catching up with Tesla become smaller every quarter.
Click to expand...

I dont know enough about the tesla chassis, but is it even serviceable? Are there aftermarket parts available? What about collision repairs?

The battery itself is not the issue. Lots of folks can build NCA and LFP packs. A gigafactory isnt really that big of a deal when a single small line can do many MWh/year. Its what the majors have to do. Much smaller capitalized companies can build gigafactories at this point, and are planning to in other tech spaces.

The question is how do you value the rest of the tech. Im not so sure that $1T for an automaker is really sound.

And Im not digging on Tesla. Theyre doing great things and are a market leader. I can like what theyre doing and still find their market cap 3x what I think it should be... (and reap the benefits, lol).
 
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I think Tesla is a great company. And I think they make very good EVs (I bought one). I think they'll make better EVs over time and they will become even more profitable.

But I don't think Tesla's stock is a good or even reasonable buy at the current price. It's just too expensive. I look for stocks having a reasonable PE ratio (among other things). 15 is okay, 20 is kind of expensive. Today's PE ratio for TSLA is 346. Think of what that means - you have to pay $346 for every $1 of earnings.

How can you make money on TSLA? (1) They could grow into a huge and/or more profitable company where the earnings increase by a factor of 20X. That would get the PE down to 17. Could happen but it's not too likely. (2) Could be taken over by a bigger company or someone with really really deep pockets at an incredible price. At this price, it's not going to happen. (3) You could sell your stock to some fool who will pay even more for it. Yeah, that's they way.

But at some point even fools will say the stock is just too expensive, the market dries up, and investors could lose 50%, 80%, a lot anyway.

There, I'm off my soapbox. Flack jacket on.
 
JHZR2 said:
I dont know enough about the tesla chassis, but is it even serviceable? Are there aftermarket parts available? What about collision repairs?

The battery itself is not the issue. Lots of folks can build NCA and LFP packs. A gigafactory isnt really that big of a deal when a single small line can do many MWh/year.

The question is how do you value the rest of the tech. Im not so sure that $1T for an automaker is really sound.

And Im not digging on Tesla. Theyre doing great things and are a market leader. I can like what theyre doing and still find their market cap 3x what I think it should be... (and reap the benefits, lol).
Click to expand...
I am not sure classifying Tesla as an automaker is really accurate. This assumes Tesla is like F, GM, etc.
Tesla is a tech and energy company that also builds cars. Future success is based in their software and energy. Look at the chip shortage. Other companies just may end up buying Tesla tech to build their vehicles. If and when Level 5 Autonomy ever achieves reality, everyone will be buying from Tesla. Look at the millions of eyes Tesla has running around the world looking at things...

Market cap is the market's a real-time estimate of the company's future success.

I suggest TSLA is much more like FAANGM then F or GM.
Your thoughts?
 
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