Just tried to do a Windows Update with a manual launch. It did come up with a list of updates to install. When I hit the "Install Updates" button, I saw a message flash for a second that said download failed, then it listed all the updates and said they were not installed.
Went to the install history and all the failed updates had the following error code (which is different than the error code seen when I tried to update MSE definitions).
Error Code: 0x80246008
OK, that error indicates a problem with BITS, which is the background process used to get your updates (which makes sense as to why both WU and MSE are failing to get them).
There's another fix it (this is getting pretty funny!) for that here:
http://support.microsoft.com/?kbid=910337
And if that doesn't work, please follow these steps:
http://support.microsoft.com/kb/916251
http://support.microsoft.com/kb/883822