I believe you have outlined the most likely scenario. If the detonation was from a Patriot, it was unlikely the proximity fuse, but the missile self destruct when propellant was burned out and the missile speed fell below a certain point. The pilot defeated the missile by not continuing inbound (additional maneuvering could help deplete missile energy), but he sure didn't defeat it by using countermeasures and outmaneuvering the missile.
The communication between the controller and the pilot is interesting. It sounds almost like a communication between a pilot and a WSO in the same USAF aircraft. Apparently their WSOs are simply weapons specialists and not real crewmembers like our's are, and the controller fulfills that role.
Too little information to know what really happened. My speculation is the 3 "launches" were determined by ELINT (Electronics Intelligence) from which the controller had access to real time. As such the launches may or may not have been real or spoofed to get the aircraft to abort the bomb run and turn around. If the explosion was a missile, it sounds like at least one launch was real. If.