Stock Pickers

[Imp4]

How is the small investor left holding the bag?
Can't the small investor buy those stocks just the same?
And also buy the market via VTSAX, VOO, VTI, etc...

Because big money and hedge funds and whatnot trade in and out. The issue with a very small few companies driving outsized gains in a limited index, and then retail and small investors buying the index, is that they’re aggregating more demand for that select few companies. 1% of the S&P accounts for 33% of the index gains. What does that tell you?

VTI I’m not as concerned about because it should include the broader weaknesses. If I understand that one right, it will have to include the other areas that were weaker, now. I primarily meant the s&p type funds that many have access to as an index.

@JHZR2 Who is talking about a limited index? Apparently only you are.
By definition a limited index reduces diversification and increases risk.
The fact that some investors trade in and out of funds and stocks is what makes the market work.
There will always be a winner and a loser in any transaction.
By constructing these disconnected and nebulous 'big money' and 'hedge fund' ideas, you're discounting how the market works and playing the small investor as the victim.

I'd love to be the small investor left 'holding the bag' (as you put it) this year on the FAANG stocks, but my risk tolerance (or lack thereof) restricts me from doing so.
I know that I'm not smart enough to pick individual stocks or the correct 'limited index' to come out on top.
So I opt not to do that and instead I invest in the broader market.
I'll take 25% appreciation a year anytime, thank you very much!

 

[alarmguy]

With the markets so fake, phony and manipulated..... I recommend having a little cash in 2X and 3X leveraged ETFs. I made some substantial gains over the past 1.5 year, now I’m taking profits and not getting greedy.

Trillions pumped into economy, corporate stock buybacks, Plunge Protection Team, VIX manipulation, reverse repo program (RRP) , ....etc...

I can agree with you on this, why I learned to not fight the market. Plenty of money to be made as you have done too.
I do too agree the market really is the "government" right now, house of cards boasted by ultra low rates, QE that never seems to end. Truly the American tax dollars allowing the Feds to keep the market propped up to very high evaluations. God only know what will happen will all this debt and Fed interference if another world even happens before they can "pay it back", Through in the insane valuations and speculation in some companies from newer investors that do not understand, things can come crashing down one day (and they will)

Now with that said, I am still fully invested, could be a big mistake but I feel we still have a ways to go with the market, there is a lot of negativity out there and I think that is good, once the world is back to normal (late 2022??) and everything looks rosy I might really start to get concerned at that point. I will say one thing, I am at a point in my life that I am not looking to make a killing, sure it would be nice but I dont need the money. Im really looking to preserve and not lose.

At the same time I do not want my money parked on the side, so as you can see my other post above, I am in rather big companies that arent out in "space" (no pun intended) as far as valuations. Im just looking for a fair return on my money, so far its been working out nice, I really felt like a hero though in the mist of the covid downturn with WMT... it was fun and buying WFC all the way down, and kept buying down further to the rock bottom of $23 ?? or something like that.
Anyway, I am looking for value, stable stocks, and even a dividend because I am concerned for the future and I dont think it will be pretty but will be invested because my thoughts may not be market reality, maybe more so in a world economy where other nations are in far worse shape?

I dont know what the heck I am talking about *LOL* just what I am doing!

 

[PimTac]

At the same time I do not want my money parked on the side, so as you can see my other post above, I am in rather big companies that arent out in "space" (no pun intended) as far as valuations. Im just looking for a fair return on my money, so far its been working out nice, I really felt like a hero though in the mist of the covid downturn with WMT... it was fun and buying WFC all the way down, and kept buying down further to the rock bottom of $23 ?? or something like that.
Anyway, I am looking for value, stable stocks, and even a dividend because I am concerned for the future and I dont think it will be pretty but will be invested because my thoughts may not be market reality, maybe more so in a world economy where other nations are in far worse shape?

Check out what are known as Multi Asset Income ETFs. They invest in all kinds of fixed income and usually the solid dividend stocks globally. The returns will vary some of course but reinvesting the dividends is the option to take.

There are really not many places to park cash without it losing value anymore.

 

[JHZR2]

@JHZR2 Who is talking about a limited index? Apparently only you are.
By definition a limited index reduces diversification and increases risk.
The fact that some investors trade in and out of funds and stocks is what makes the market work.
There will always be a winner and a loser in any transaction.
By constructing these disconnected and nebulous 'big money' and 'hedge fund' ideas, you're discounting how the market works and playing the small investor as the victim.

I'd love to be the small investor left 'holding the bag' (as you put it) this year on the FAANG stocks, but my risk tolerance (or lack thereof) restricts me from doing so.
I know that I'm not smart enough to pick individual stocks or the correct 'limited index' to come out on top.
So I opt not to do that and instead I invest in the broader market.
I'll take 25% appreciation a year anytime, thank you very much!

I dont even know what youre talking about at this point. Is the S&P 500 not a "limited" index? Or does the market at large have only 500 public companies?

Many folks look at the S&P, not the total market type indicies, which is what I am talking about. You realize that VTI and VOO, as examples, are different things, right? How many "automatic enrollments" put some fraction in an S&P fund?
Heck, even the Governement TSP "C" fund tracks the S&P 500. So that's precisely my point.

And the other point was that if a few companies are driving an outsized amount of growth, then when they pullback, guess what happens? Apparently you dont understand "holding the bag" when things turn negative, which they will... We are way overdue for a real correction. Im not portraying anyone specifically as a victim. Reality though is that there are lots of folks who "invest" without much information, and then wonder why at some point their account has contracted by some large percentage.

I dont even know what youre talking about anymore, its as if you have some assumption that growth will continue forever or something. I wont wear those rose colored glasses when everything is propped up on printed money and a very small number of companies driving the observed gains, while people are drowning in debt and main street isnt doing quite as well as FAANG. It doesnt mean that I "pick stocks" or try to time the market per se. Ive seen the data. But youre convoluting different things and I dont have the time to debate any further. Good luck.

 

[Zee09]

Today.....

 

[JHZR2]

Today.....

View attachment 83191

T isnt up 15% today... Is it?

 

[Zee09]

T isnt up 15% today... Is it?

This is what I was up today from my original buy prices not today's price.

 

[Dave Hess]

This is what I was up today from my original buy prices not today's price.

Which platform / brokerage are you using ?

 

[Zee09]

Which platform / brokerage are you using ?

I use several but this is the RH. mobile app.

 

[Dave Hess]

I use several but this is the RH. mobile app.

I have TD Ameritrade, Fidelity and Vanguard.

I should have stuck to only Fidelity or TD since they have local offices if website goes down like what happened to the Vanguard outage last week.

 

[Zee09]

I have TD Ameritrade, Fidelity and Vanguard.

I should have stuck to only Fidelity or TD since they have local offices if website goes down like what happened to the Vanguard outage last week.

RH is a bit shady but super easy..
Their desktop version is not good..
I guess it was designed mainly for the young and the cell.
They are improving though.

I tried many of the latest but they were trying to be a social media sites instead of trading platforms.
SoFi being one of the worst.

 

[Donald]

Yes, I'm wondering if people who are picking their own stocks are outperforming the professional ones.

And yes, I knew it was behind a paywall which is why I summed it up, 85% of the fund managers out there aren't beating the S&P 500. Which kinda makes sense, I'm in two other funds, Fidelity Contrafund and Janus Henderson 40 which are both trailing the S&P 500 this year although they did better the last few years.

So if a professional fund manager managing an actively traded fund cannot pick stocks that will beat the S&P 500 year after year, why would you think someone on BITOG would be able to? I am sure some have, but if you are going to tell me about the winning stocks, let's hear about the duds also.

Invest in a low fee index mutual fund and worry about something important like how well the NY Yankees will do in 2022.

 

[Wolf359]

So if a professional fund manager managing an actively traded fund cannot pick stocks that will beat the S&P 500 year after year, why would you think someone on BITOG would be able to? I am sure some have, but if you are going to tell me about the winning stocks, let's hear about the duds also.

Invest in a low fee index mutual fund and worry about something important like how well the NY Yankees will do in 2022.

Yes, that what I was basically wondering, if people are really beating the index buying stocks on their own and including all their duds and also investing their entire portfolio. It's one thing to say you get a 50% return, but if you only invested half your portfolio and kept the other in cash, really only 25% return and S&P 500 did 28.69% last year.