Stock Pickers

I got a few shares of Tesla, Apple and Amazon before they had split....
 
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@Wolf359 Mutual funds that trade stocks actively and individual investors that select their own stocks are two different things

Your article discusses the former and your question refers to the latter.
Which would you like to discuss?

Oh, and your article is behind a pay wall so almost no one can see it.
 
My risk stocks are Lam Research (LRCX) up $238 to $716, or 50%
and Tesla (TSLA) up $359 to $1,088, or 49%.
I manage these.

Everything else is pretty conservative, including a double tax free CA bond fund.
Mostly managed by Schwab Private Client.

Remember, gains this year are outstanding mainly because coming out, at least partially, of the you-know-what.
 
Imp4 said:
@Wolf359 Mutual funds that trade stocks actively and individual investors that select their own stocks are two different things

Your article discusses the former and your question refers to the latter.
Which would you like to discuss?

Oh, and your article is behind a pay wall so almost no one can see it.
Click to expand...
Yes, I'm wondering if people who are picking their own stocks are outperforming the professional ones.

And yes, I knew it was behind a paywall which is why I summed it up, 85% of the fund managers out there aren't beating the S&P 500. Which kinda makes sense, I'm in two other funds, Fidelity Contrafund and Janus Henderson 40 which are both trailing the S&P 500 this year although they did better the last few years.
 
I have funds and ETFs and a couple of ETFs that do not disclose their holdings. A ESG ETF that I have has done very well as have value holdings and some international small cap.

I don’t treat it like a competition.
 
Wolf359 said:
Yes, I'm wondering if people who are picking their own stocks are outperforming the professional ones.

And yes, I knew it was behind a paywall which is why I summed it up, 85% of the fund managers out there aren't beating the S&P 500. Which kinda makes sense, I'm in two other funds, Fidelity Contrafund and Janus Henderson 40 which are both trailing the S&P 500 this year although they did better the last few years.
Click to expand...
I'm confused why you're linking an article about mutual funds but asking questions about individual stock selection. You're aware they're not the same, right?!?

No harm meant, but your train of thought doesn't seem to add up.
 
The thing about comparing to the S&P 500 index is that 16% of the index consists of only three companies - 6% each of Microsoft and Apple and 4% Google. If these 3 stocks have significant price appreciation in a year, and they did this year, (36% aapl, 50% msft, 70% googl) then it's tough to beat "the market" if your portfolio doesn't include similar weightings. And I don't think there are enough shares in circulation for every investor to own that proportion in their portfolio.
 
Wolf359 said:
Seems like 85% of the stock picker funds out there are now trailing the S&P 500, it was 64% last year. How well have people who picked their own stocks done this year?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-pickers-are-struggling-to-beat-the-market-11640692983
Click to expand...
IMO that just tells you what an issue we are in.

There are two things at play:
1) very few companies making a huge amount of gains
2) money chasing an index, because of the allure of gains, which then forces demand on a small subset of companies (e.g., the s&p 500).

Both of these things seem very artificial to me. #1 means that Main Street isn’t really succeeding. Just corporate overlords. Not a good sign. #2 just means gains are artificial and someone will be left holding the bag. Generally it’s the small investors.
 
My meme stocks are killing me. Except TSLA. The majority of my investments are in funds that are doing well. I've bought AAPL at $90 before the split and my daughter wanted AAPL stock 20 years ago so her little nest egg is growing nicely but she thinks the stock was sold years ago.
 
I understand wanting to compare YTD or yearly gains losses even though I dont invest that way.

Anyway for the comparison you are looking for my YTD in my account where I pick my own stocks. (I also own funds in a separate 401k account.)

TMobile - long term, down about 12% YTD
Walmart - long term, Unchanged YTD
Wells Fargo - long term, up 60% YTD

Long term = conservative, beat bank interest rates and inflation, low risk, not looking to hit grand slams and with TMobile not sure what I am doing with it, its my own speculation on their 5g and home internet offerings.
The only stock that I know for sure (whatever that means) that I will own next year at this time is Walmart. A bit more gain with Wells Fargo and I might bail but maybe not. TMobile has me nervous but time will tell.

Ok, you motivated me, pulled up my 401k = 12/31/2020 - 12/29/2021- Up 35.91% for the year
 
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PimTac said:
I have funds and ETFs and a couple of ETFs that do not disclose their holdings. A ESG ETF that I have has done very well as have value holdings and some international small cap.

I don’t treat it like a competition.
Click to expand...
I can't make myself buy stocks anymore. I was a professional trader for 7 years and aside from just having enough of the worrying, I am gunshy about volatility. My money is in ETF's or direct funds and even those are low risk.
 
Stock picking mutual funds have always, and I mean always, underperformed the market, in the aggregate. It’s closer to 90-95% that have underperformed when fees are considered. It is an arithmetic inevitability, because the stock pickers are the market. In the aggregate, they are, and in the aggregate, they charge fees. So, as a group, they underperform by the amount of their fees. That’s why no-load (low fee) index funds do so well, year after year.

Read “Common Sense on Mutual Funds” by John Bogle.
 
JHZR2 said:
#2 just means gains are artificial and someone will be left holding the bag. Generally it’s the small investors.
Click to expand...
How is the small investor left holding the bag?
Can't the small investor buy those stocks just the same?
And also buy the market via VTSAX, VOO, VTI, etc...
 
With the markets so fake, phony and manipulated..... I recommend having a little cash in 2X and 3X leveraged ETFs. I made some substantial gains over the past 1.5 year, now I’m taking profits and not getting greedy.

Trillions pumped into economy, corporate stock buybacks, Plunge Protection Team, VIX manipulation, reverse repo program (RRP) , ....etc...

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/the...alued-at-100-million-in-the-stock-market.html

.
 
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Imp4 said:
How is the small investor left holding the bag?
Can't the small investor buy those stocks just the same?
And also buy the market via VTSAX, VOO, VTI, etc...
Click to expand...
Because big money and hedge funds and whatnot trade in and out. The issue with a very small few companies driving outsized gains in a limited index, and then retail and small investors buying the index, is that they’re aggregating more demand for that select few companies. 1% of the S&P accounts for 33% of the index gains. What does that tell you?

VTI I’m not as concerned about because it should include the broader weaknesses. If I understand that one right, it will have to include the other areas that were weaker, now. I primarily meant the s&p type funds that many have access to as an index.
 
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