Semiconductor tariffs

I've been retired for a few years, but I am all too familiar with the overseas work. Companies get sucked in by the lower prices for SAP and Oracle work, and seem to live with the so-so quality and long delivery times.

Part of the problem is the high cost of ERP. It hurts.
I forgot to retire at 65. But looking to retire in a month or two.

I work on a small team supporting the mainframe. We end up picking up the pieces when the overseas work causes problems.

I have to believe management knows the low quality they often get from overseas work but as you say are sucked in by the low prices.

The latest trend is for a company to rent a floor in one of the buildings at the tech hubs in India and hire FTEs in India. A friend of mine at a company I use to work for said her area was given a 90 day notice to train their Indian replacement and then layoff.
 
Refining capability can be built, and as long as you are willing to accept the environmental consequence (pollution), you can get them in the US eventually.
“Can be” - and yet, none are. The environmental consequences aren’t the big deal, the regulatory and political framework is the big, and it is big, barrier.
 
The biggest problem is talent; the US simply does not have it. Until we value education, we will be highly dependent on others.
We do but it's ultimately it's a numbers game. The population of either India or China is 5x of the US. That means they can, combined, produce 10x the number of engineers who are willing to earn a lot less as well. For example Chinese companies by in large operate at very low profit margins.

It's time to double the income limit for H1B Visa applicants.
 
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“Can be” - and yet, none are. The environmental consequences aren’t the big deal, the regulatory and political framework is the big, and it is big, barrier.
That’s how we know the one way “global” trade was done by design.
People like to blame the consumers for not buying American, or greedy CEO and corporations, when in reality a lot of it is controlled top down and we just see everyone reacting and working within the framework we were given.
 
We do but it's ultimately it's a numbers game. The population of either India or China is 5x of the US. That means can they produce 10x the number of engineers combined and are willing to earn a lot less as well. For example Chinese companies by in large operate at very low profit margins.

It's time to double the income limit for H1B Visa applicants.
Not with China. In communist regimes one cannot look too smart or innovative or they risk being unalived. Their creative thinking is basically shut down right from the very young age. You cannot compensate this with education.
 
Not with China. In communist regimes one cannot look too smart or innovative or they risk being unalived. Their creative thinking is basically shut down right from the very young age. You cannot compensate this with education.
I get what you're saying but if that were employed in mass then BYD wouldn't be the No 1 EV automaker in the world.
 
I get what you're saying but if that were employed in mass then BYD wouldn't be the No 1 EV automaker in the world.
Yeah, how do they look when you ignore their sales in China? Knowing the communist scumbags that they are, it’s all smoke and mirrors. These cars are probably parked in the middle of nowhere just like their ghost cities.
 
Yeah, how do they look when you ignore their sales in China? Knowing the communist scumbags that they are, it’s all smoke and mirrors. These cars are probably parked in the middle of nowhere just like their ghost cities.
They're popular in every country inwhich they're sold.

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...siders-germany-third-plant-europe-2025-03-17/

"According to estimates by S&P Global Mobility, BYD's European sales will more than double this year to 186,000 units, from 83,000 units in 2024, and are expected to further increase to just under 400,000 units by 2029."
 
Refining capability can be built, and as long as you are willing to accept the environmental consequence (pollution), you can get them in the US eventually.

You can always get them through third party, but it'll cost more.

it's not like you waive a magic wand and the refining installations are there and functioning efficiently either.
 
China processes 85-90% of all RE metals - not ALL - but yes get that OUT of China!
The ranking is based on “known” reserves …
However, they are always out trying to cut deals off the market on crude oil … Like oil for infrastructure - leaving a bunch of empty buildings and no cash left in the economy …
I have said here a dozen times - we make stupid use of these minerals based on ideology - not engineering …
 
The rise of auto prices will also come from the 25% Tariffs on parts from Mexico/Canada, vehicles imported FROM Mexico/Canada, or both. For example, the Audi Q5 is now subject to over 50% Tariff rate because it's assembled in Mexico with parts from Europe. https://fortune.com/2025/04/10/audi-q5-suv-expected-to-be-unsellable-after-trump-tariffs/
 
Refining capability can be built, and as long as you are willing to accept the environmental consequence (pollution), you can get them in the US eventually.
But never dysprosium as it doesn’t exist in any of the samples taken all over the country going back to the 20’s. The other alternative sources are Chinese owned despite being in a foreign country,
produce exceedingly small amounts, one country is in a civil war, the other sources lack roads and infrastructure to the mine locations or a trade agreement with the us, the only one left is Australia and they aren’t happy with us and don’t produce much.
China controls 100% of heavy rare earth refining capability.... they can weaponise that if they want to.
they already did, they have export bans enforced on foreign companies in the form of licensing your products that use rare earths based on who the end user will be. (End user= US no licensing)
Chinese also own most of the mines worldwide including the USs single rare earth mine that is perpetually bankrupt.

Prices of rare earths are skyrocketing and it is unknown how long various entities have stored to continue producing consumer products .

Examples of a few things that are affected by this development:
  • electric motors
  • solar panels
  • ammunition
  • cutters
  • drill bits
  • punches
  • circuitry in semiconductor chips
  • CNC machine tools
  • alloys that go into everything from jet engines to deep-drilling rigs
  • wind turbines
  • night-vision goggles
  • sonar systems
  • magnetostrictive actuators
  • display screens
  • touchscreens
  • fiber optics
  • laser diodes
  • 5G base stations
  • jet engine coatings
  • high-frequency radar systems
  • precision lasers
  • laser target designators
  • LASIK
  • engraving
  • spectroscopy
  • guided munitions
  • infrared imaging
  • stealth aircraft
Do you like cars with auto generators and an external pile style regulator? (Alternators use materials we don’t have domestically with a focus on the regulator section being impossible to produce sans specific materials )
Do you like mechanical timing? Modern OBDII2 and o2 sensors can’t be manufactured without specific elements

Do you like not having a 3 way cat?
Only 70’s era 2 way cats can be made domestically without certain elements.

Do you like crt TVs ? (Modern LCDs, processors/junction boards and silicon chips in general require elements we don’t make in significant quantities but we do have the rare earths to make CRTs phosphors )

Do you like cell phones? Many parts, especially 3/4/5g modems require rare earths to transmit.

Do you like asceptic packaging? Many polymers, hydrocarbons (including fuel and oil) and medical chemicals are manufactured with the help of rare earth catalyst.

The reason the above matters is because China is attempting to place an export ban on any product with rare earths going to a country without a license.
 
But never dysprosium as it doesn’t exist in any of the samples taken all over the country going back to the 20’s. The other alternative sources are Chinese owned despite being in a foreign country,
produce exceedingly small amounts, one country is in a civil war, the other sources lack roads and infrastructure to the mine locations or a trade agreement with the us, the only one left is Australia and they aren’t happy with us and don’t produce much.

they already did, they have export bans enforced on foreign companies in the form of licensing your products that use rare earths based on who the end user will be. (End user= US no licensing)
Chinese also own most of the mines worldwide including the USs single rare earth mine that is perpetually bankrupt.

Prices of rare earths are skyrocketing and it is unknown how long various entities have stored to continue producing consumer products .

Examples of a few things that are affected by this development:
  • electric motors
  • solar panels
  • ammunition
  • cutters
  • drill bits
  • punches
  • circuitry in semiconductor chips
  • CNC machine tools
  • alloys that go into everything from jet engines to deep-drilling rigs
  • wind turbines
  • night-vision goggles
  • sonar systems
  • magnetostrictive actuators
  • display screens
  • touchscreens
  • fiber optics
  • laser diodes
  • 5G base stations
  • jet engine coatings
  • high-frequency radar systems
  • precision lasers
  • laser target designators
  • LASIK
  • engraving
  • spectroscopy
  • guided munitions
  • infrared imaging
  • stealth aircraft
Do you like cars with auto generators and an external pile style regulator? (Alternators use materials we don’t have domestically with a focus on the regulator section being impossible to produce sans specific materials )
Do you like mechanical timing? Modern OBDII2 and o2 sensors can’t be manufactured without specific elements

Do you like not having a 3 way cat?
Only 70’s era 2 way cats can be made domestically without certain elements.

Do you like crt TVs ? (Modern LCDs, processors/junction boards and silicon chips in general require elements we don’t make in significant quantities but we do have the rare earths to make CRTs phosphors )

Do you like cell phones? Many parts, especially 3/4/5g modems require rare earths to transmit.

Do you like asceptic packaging? Many polymers, hydrocarbons (including fuel and oil) and medical chemicals are manufactured with the help of rare earth catalyst.

The reason the above matters is because China is attempting to place an export ban on any product with rare earths going to a country without a license.

It's genuinely staggering to me how little thought people actually put into things like saying "tariffs are good" and "them banning export of RE materials is good because we can just mine it ourselves". There is zero consideration for the actual reality of the logistics and cost that goes into something like "build an entire rare earths mineral mining and processing infrastructure from the ground up". It's like they just handwave and imagine it'll "just happen" overnight on it's own. And not even considering that most of the actual machinery and tools and materials to DO that have to come from China or somewhere else in the first place because we don't make those either.
 
We do but it's ultimately it's a numbers game. The population of either India or China is 5x of the US. That means they can, combined, produce 10x the number of engineers who are willing to earn a lot less as well. For example Chinese companies by in large operate at very low profit margins.

It's time to double the income limit for H1B Visa applicants.
Agree on the population numbers difference, but disagree on education.
We need to value education, starting with grade school. That's my opinion.

The 2 most important changes AI will offer is Education and Medicine.
 
It's genuinely staggering to me how little thought people actually put into things like saying "tariffs are good" and "them banning export of RE materials is good because we can just mine it ourselves". There is zero consideration for the actual reality of the logistics and cost that goes into something like "build an entire rare earths mineral mining and processing infrastructure from the ground up". It's like they just handwave and imagine it'll "just happen" overnight on it's own. And not even considering that most of the actual machinery and tools and materials to DO that have to come from China or somewhere else in the first place because we don't make those either.
So just don’t bother changing anything and let China continue taking over anything they want?
 
Huh?

IMG_0210.webp
 
Agree on the population numbers difference, but disagree on education.
We need to value education, starting with grade school. That's my opinion.

The 2 most important changes AI will offer is Education and Medicine.
Sure but it won't solve the "I can hire one American engineer or 100 in X country for the same price". My cousin actually said 1,000.
 
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