Semiconductor tariffs

I think Sue is an example of a "corner case." There are Sue's out there, but they're the exception and not the norm.

Although I am of the opinion that a graduate pool consisting solely of STEM majors is not ideal, I do think we need to do a better job in this area if we want to remain globally competitive.
On that, we completely agree. 😎
 
Greetings from the EU …
Been working overseas all over the globe since 1991. I actually know allot about international business partners and geo—— aspects of various countries - Think you need to understand China better … They do not belong in the WTO …
Yeah they don’t want to trade they want to dominate.
 
The biggest problem is talent; the US simply does not have it. Until we value education, we will be highly dependent on others.
Unfortunately we seem to be cutting/turning off the best and brightest from all nations from coming. The reason US is crushing it is brain drain from world. It’s not the folks living here except small amount and typically parents new immigrants.
 
Unfortunately we seem to be cutting/turning off the best and brightest from all nations from coming. The reason US is crushing it is brain drain from world. It’s not the folks living here except small amount.
We have a pool of 8 billion people to choose from.
 
So…using Sue as a example…you don’t need a degree to be successful?

How then, did the education system in our country fail her?
Interesting question!
The CFO, and 2nd in command at Novellus (now acquired by Lam Research) had a personal "Top 20" and "Top 10" list of employees that he kept his eye on, from anywhere in the company. Could be engineers, inventors, or business folk. This was a very prestigious list to be on, and had crazy rewards. Remember, SEMI is full of some pretty gifted people, yet the demand is still very high. That's why the cost of living is high but the opportunities are higher So Sue is an outlier. She was the person called in when there was a crisis that impacted the business and was in deep yogurt. Regardless of the subject matter or persons involved.

But my point was different. Had there been requisite resources, we may have another brilliant Doctor. IMO, the system failed. Silicon Valley is a special place; they recognize and support talent. The results speak for themselves.

Even for lowly programmers sometimes.
 
Unfortunately we seem to be cutting/turning off the best and brightest from all nations from coming. The reason US is crushing it is brain drain from world. It’s not the folks living here except small amount and typically parents new immigrants.
Yep. Silicon Vallet is the most culturally diverse place on the planet. IMO, we need to do a better job of growing our own.
 
I'm not advocating for anything. But the US has permanently burned some bridges, and the longer this situation continues the closer the rest of the world will get to China. In fact, this has opened the door to lowering existing tariffs on chinese products.
True. And inside of America as well. If you were a CEO here, would you make any big expenditures right now?
 
It's carburetors, points and condensers for us from now on. Just a matter of cranking back up the Delco condenser factory, the Rochester quadrajet plant and the Mallory distributor shop....
True. And inside of America as well. If you were a CEO here, would you make any big expenditures right now?
We should take a look at what the younger industrialist types are doing, the businesses billionaires, tech titans, etc.
 
The reason chips aren't made in the US is economic and involves quite a bit of manipulation.

Take Taiwan for instance. Taiwan has essentially pegged its currency to the USD and inflated it proportional to the USD. The details are complicated but it involves US bonds and Life insurance.

This has been known by governments for awhile but they have looked the other way.

This keeps Taiwan's exports at a competitive advantage.
 
USA needs to start now, something we should have shown China 35 years ago. Backbone. Don't be weak now. US Aggression? We are NOT the trade patsies.

Who exactly is rallying with China?
US lobbied China to switch side so Soviet will lose a significant ally. Yes back then China did send fighter jets to US for upgrade as well.

It is not that we bow down to China, more like trying to recruit a sidekick of an enemy to join our side, and obviously you got to pay them an allowance right? Nobody would have though back then China would grew so big so fast and replaced not only USSR but Japan as the world's #2 economy.
 
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It'll cost nearly the same as the Chinese version + whatever tarriff is decided on. That's what happens if competion is removed. So $2500+ isn't unlikely.
I remember back then the assembly labor cost of a $400 iPhone is about $120, with Foxconn charging 6% profit margin. Let's say today it is $150 labor cost in China due to inflation, at $5/hr. US labor let's say is $24/hr, this $150 labor will become x5 and $450, so that $400 iPhone will have to sell for $900?

I think most likely they will move to somewhere else or be completely automated, so maybe 1 US worker feeding the robot to replace 5 Chinese labor, or more likely, someone will build a factory full of robot in, I don't know, Poland or India?

US never exited the semiconductor industry. We have fabs from Intel that were mismanaged but in good volume. Had they not hired a few accountant CEOs they would not be where they are today. Micron is doing well and not have cost disadvantage compare to Kioxia or Samsung / Hynix due to US labor cost. Heck, Boise ID probably have lower cost than Seoul anyways.

The problem with US semiconductor industry is always the accountant CEOs not wanting to invest, they don't want to pump in $20B to make 30% profit margin when foreign government want to win at all cost and guarantee $20B of loans to make sure the risk is minimal.
 
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I think Sue is an example of a "corner case." There are Sue's out there, but they're the exception and not the norm.

Although I am of the opinion that a graduate pool consisting solely of STEM majors is not ideal, I do think we need to do a better job in this area if we want to remain globally competitive.
TSMC and Samsung / Hynix paid the best in their corresponding country. Intel paid the worst in the semiconductor industry and move a huge amount of their R&D from Santa Clara into Phoenix AZ to lower cost. The best talents always move to high COL area to make big bucks in the high demand industries.

There are lots of semiconductor engineers going into software to get paid the 2x-3x salary, when the opposite is happening in Asia. Guess what happened? We won software and lose in hardware / chips.

All the best paid semiconductor engineers in the US work for fabless chip companies sending their design to Taiwan. I wonder why.
 
Unfortunately we seem to be cutting/turning off the best and brightest from all nations from coming. The reason US is crushing it is brain drain from world. It’s not the folks living here except small amount and typically parents new immigrants.
I don't agree that US pool is not good. There are good people from US as well (I work with both US and foreign talents at work all the time).

What I think is the problem in many other countries, and to a certain extend in some part of the US economy, is that whenever you set up a barrier or criteria other than merit, you will lose the opportunity of getting some talents. Move your R&D to Boise ID and you will lose some of the people, setting up a security clearance and you will lose some of the people (although it may be justified), setup some protectionism rule and you will lose some talents. Giving some people you want to hire from oversea green card and you might be able to recruit the top 1% in that country. You see what I'm getting there.

We have some rules on security protocol designed in the US cannot be exported, so what we end up with today is most of the security protocol related products are designed in Israel and export all over the world (including to Russia), there are no security protocol related R&D in the US because of that.
 
I remember back then the assembly labor cost of a $400 iPhone is about $120, with Foxconn charging 6% profit margin. Let's say today it is $150 labor cost in China due to inflation, at $5/hr. US labor let's say is $24/hr, this $150 labor will become x5 and $450, so that $400 iPhone will have to sell for $900?

I think most likely they will move to somewhere else or be completely automated, so maybe 1 US worker feeding the robot to replace 5 Chinese labor, or more likely, someone will build a factory full of robot in, I don't know, Poland or India?

US never exited the semiconductor industry. We have fabs from Intel that were mismanaged but in good volume. Had they not hired a few accountant CEOs they would not be where they are today. Micron is doing well and not have cost disadvantage compare to Kioxia or Samsung / Hynix due to US labor cost. Heck, Boise ID probably have lower cost than Seoul anyways.

The problem with US semiconductor industry is always the accountant CEOs not wanting to invest, they don't want to pump in $20B to make 30% profit margin when foreign government want to win at all cost and guarantee $20B of loans to make sure the risk is minimal.

you won't get any of the resources or refining for the same cost as the chinese get them either
 
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