Semiconductor tariffs

[KrisZ]

People defending China and seeing US as the aggressor is some wild stuff.
You guys simply have no idea what a regime like CCP is capable of.

All people can think of is the price of iPhones and other goods. Which is quite ironic since there is plenty of lamentation on BITOG how we’re a throwaway society and that we consume to much.

So as it turns out out, all this talk about consumerism is a bunch of BS and virtue signaling, because when it’s stress tested, it all goes back to “what about the price of my <insert a useless product here>?”

It’s like the threads about “cheap and simple cars/trucks”. All empty talk, but when you check people’s signatures, they drive nothing that is “cheap and simple”.

 

[Pablo]

Same as suddenly taxes and government bad irony

 

[PandaBear]

People defending China and seeing US as the aggressor is some wild stuff.
You guys simply have no idea what a regime like CCP is capable of.

All people can think of is the price of iPhones and other goods. Which is quite ironic since there is plenty of lamentation on BITOG how we’re a throwaway society and that we consume to much.

So as it turns out out, all this talk about consumerism is a bunch of BS and virtue signaling, because when it’s stress tested, it all goes back to “what about the price of my <insert a useless product here>?”

It’s like the threads about “cheap and simple cars/trucks”. All empty talk, but when you check people’s signatures, they drive nothing that is “cheap and simple”.

It is never a good idea to bet against human nature. We are genetically wired to be selfish. People in the US are, people in China are, people in Russia are, and people in Japan are too (they just don't show it in public).

This is why communism never scale above a family, even within a cult it doesn't work too well.

The same can be said on taxing the rich to build infrastructures, many vote against it if they don't use them despite "it is for the greater good". This is why we have toll roads and private schools, etc. I am not saying it is good or bad, just human nature. This is why black market exist in communist nations, despite them trying to make things "fair".

This is also why prohibition failed.

We are all like that in one way or another. I'm glad we are in a nation that we can choose to vote one way or another, and complain about what I don't like, instead of being forced to do it "for the greater good".

 

[KrisZ]

It is never a good idea to bet against human nature. We are genetically wired to be selfish. People in the US are, people in China are, people in Russia are, and people in Japan are too (they just don't show it in public).

This is why communism never scale above a family, even within a cult it doesn't work too well.

The same can be said on taxing the rich to build infrastructures, many vote against it if they don't use them despite "it is for the greater good". This is why we have toll roads and private schools, etc. I am not saying it is good or bad, just human nature. This is why black market exist in communist nations, despite them trying to make things "fair".

We are all like that in one way or another.

I will have to disagree on that. You're conflating people with the ruling system in place. These are two totally different things. I have nothing against the Chinese people, nothing against the German people when Nazis were ruling them, nothing against the Russian people during the USSR rule.

The communist system is designed to crush its own people physically, mentally and spiritually. People are all pitted against each other, they are incentivized to report each other, whether true or not, doesn't matter. Their "perfect" version is that even your own kids will report you, and you do not trust anyone, except the party. Personal freedom and thinking are eradicated.

That's not human nature at all, as no other such system was in use in our recorded history, prior to the Bolshevik revolution. We've had plenty of dictatorships, rulers, emperors etc, but none of them came even close with the ruthlessness of the communist system against its own people.

 

[buster]

We better work on obtaining more rare Earth metals asap too.

 

[Dave Hess]

We better work on obtaining more rare Earth metals asap too.

They will cut us off from everything needed to manufacture high end products and not so high end products.

 

[buster]

https://www.csis.org/analysis/consequences-chinas-new-rare-earths-export-restrictions

It’d be entirely foolish to assume the US had not already anticipated the CCP would take such a move, and therefore had amassed a certain amount of secret undeclared stockpiles of these REEs to prepare for any eventualities.

It’s just the nature of the great game being played on the world stage and everyone’s just an observer.

 

[KrisZ]

They will cut us off from everything needed to manufacture high end products and not so high end products.

It doesn't matter because no one will buy their finished products either. But we can get rare earths, they can only stock pile theirs.

 

[Jetronic]

And the EU 43.5% tarriff on Chinese EV is gone....

 

[Jetronic]

It doesn't matter because no one will buy their finished products either. But we can get rare earths, they can only stock pile theirs.

China controls 100% of heavy rare earth refining capability.... they can weaponise that if they want to.

 

[Pablo]

China controls 100% of heavy rare earth refining capability.... they can weaponise that if they want to.

Well that’s not true

 

[Jetronic]

Well that’s not true

Those are the figures I've seen, the ores are sent to china for processing

 

[Pew]

Those are the figures I've seen, the ores are sent to china for processing

But, thankfully not the Oreos.

 

[Vil_Riker]

But, thankfully not the Oreos.

What happened with Oreos?

 

[Vil_Riker]

People defending China and seeing US as the aggressor is some wild stuff.
You guys simply have no idea what a regime like CCP is capable of.

All people can think of is the price of iPhones and other goods. Which is quite ironic since there is plenty of lamentation on BITOG how we’re a throwaway society and that we consume to much.

So as it turns out out, all this talk about consumerism is a bunch of BS and virtue signaling, because when it’s stress tested, it all goes back to “what about the price of my <insert a useless product here>?”

It’s like the threads about “cheap and simple cars/trucks”. All empty talk, but when you check people’s signatures, they drive nothing that is “cheap and simple”.

I think a slight historic detour is due. Our special relationship with China started under Nixon so that we could turn China against the USSR. Which we successfully did. To a point that they had a small war (China lost but it was rolled back a few decades later diplomatically).

The deal was that we would open up our market to them in exchange for cheap labor and low regulations for American manufacturers. It was a great success. Our lifestyles in the US improved - we can afford things with declining real incomes that would be out of bounds otherwise.

Coming to the tariffs and the trade war. It is all done to replace one form of tax with another - replace income tax with import duties. Will it be successful?

Probably.

An anecdote as to why he will be successful. There was a course in my first semester of MBA school and we studied Trump who was a RE developer then. When he had a problem with Deutsche Bank about some loans, he famously said - When you owe a bank a million dollars, it's your problem. When you owe then 100 million, it's the bank's problem. We owe China 4.5 trillion dollars. That debt is their problem, not ours.

 

[Donald]

The US is among the best countries by percentage of population who has a bachelor’s or higher. Russia and a few others are a bit higher.

But a bachelor’s in English literature doesn’t get you a job in tech.

Where we lag is in technical education.

A bachelor in comp si gets you a job for a few years until it's moved to India.

I would be hard pressed to say what area of IT has staying power.

The company I work for has a lot of IT work done in India. Problem is often they are not very good at it.

 

[PandaBear]

When you owe a bank a million dollars, it's your problem. When you owe then 100 million, it's the bank's problem. We owe China 4.5 trillion dollars. That debt is their problem, not ours.

This is why every time US has a massive QE China follows, until they blew a bubble so big they collapsed last year.

 

[PandaBear]

A bachelor in comp si gets you a job for a few years until it's moved to India.

I would be hard pressed to say what area of IT has staying power.

The company I work for has a lot of IT work done in India. Problem is often they are not very good at it.

Yes and no. Most of the good Indian software engineers ended up in the US or Canada when their H1B in the US expire, then they will come back after a year or two with another H1B.

The days of $350k a year is probably gone, but there are still plenty of $100-140k jobs around.

 

[JeffKeryk]

A bachelor in comp si gets you a job for a few years until it's moved to India.

I would be hard pressed to say what area of IT has staying power.

The company I work for has a lot of IT work done in India. Problem is often they are not very good at it.

I've been retired for a few years, but I am all too familiar with the overseas work. Companies get sucked in by the lower prices for SAP and Oracle work, and seem to live with the so-so quality and long delivery times.

Part of the problem is the high cost of ERP. It hurts.

 

[PandaBear]

China controls 100% of heavy rare earth refining capability.... they can weaponise that if they want to.

Refining capability can be built, and as long as you are willing to accept the environmental consequence (pollution), you can get them in the US eventually.