Sandy Munro; food for thought...

[JeffKeryk]

Your Move OEMs

As someone who made a career out of forecasting, trend analysis and predictive analytics, there is so much to learn from numbers...
As in, why do companies make decisions based on today that work out badly? Because they are full of themselves and do not understand the only constant is change.

Interesting food for thought.

 

[frankbee3]

Hi Jeff, thanks for posting this. I found this presentation very interesting.

 

[frankbee3]

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

[Wrenchturner44]

Sandy, is / was the automotive OEM accountant's worst nightmare.....LOL. He is a good guy and makes keen observations about a lot of design, but the bean counters seem to always have an impact.

 

[PandaBear]

Sandy, is / was the automotive OEM accountant's worst nightmare.....LOL. He is a good guy and makes keen observations about a lot of design, but the bean counters seem to always have an impact.

This is not only in auto OEM, a lot of companies today love to load up on debt and pay massive dividends instead of growing the product line. To be honest, the management is there to make money for themselves and the shareholders, and they are attracting shareholders who aren't really shareholders because they are just fund managers who take a cut based on the number going up or down, the real shareholders are buried in the mutual funds' accounts holders. This is the biggest reason I don't invest in dividend companies or companies that are not growing.

Now I don't believe Tesla's way of doing things is going to work for everyone (say Toyota), but the issue with many companies are not really EV related (union factories, overproduction to meet target regardless of cost short or long term, cash on the hood instead of designing good products for higher price and profit). The closest company that is nimble enough would probably be Subaru or Mazda, GM / Ford / Chrysler are not even trying to win the international market, so I don't think they will do well until EVs are commoditized and becomes an "also run but a better deal" choice.

European Luxury brands would probably have the most to lose as they lose their aura of "best", I wish them luck.

 

[Owen Lucas]

I've read Munro's team is so good at reverse engineering parts and accurate at manufacturer pricing that major companies have investigated their own employees for providing information to him.

 

[Jake_J]

Sandy Munro is certainly very knowledgeable but he's only human so his ability to predict the future is certainly flawed. I remember him on Autoline Detroit going on and on how the BMW i3 was revolutionary and it was going to change the industry, well I guess somebody forgot to tell the rest of the world as it's been a near non factor with anemic sales numbers.

 

[wemay]

Sandy Munro is certainly very knowledgeable but he's only human so his ability to predict the future is certainly flawed. I remember him on Autoline Detroit going on and on how the BMW i3 was revolutionary and it was going to change the industry, well I guess somebody forgot to tell the rest of the world as it's been a near non factor with anemic sales numbers.

You beat me to it. But this is a very interesting presentation.

 

[UncleDave]

Sandy Munro is certainly very knowledgeable but he's only human so his ability to predict the future is certainly flawed. I remember him on Autoline Detroit going on and on how the BMW i3 was revolutionary and it was going to change the industry, well I guess somebody forgot to tell the rest of the world as it's been a near non factor with anemic sales numbers.

If I recall it was the I3's construction techniques and precision of the assembly that would change the industry - not the auto as a holistic unit.

 

[Kiwi_ME]

I'm glad Sandy clarified his education background before starting. That helped me better understand his perspective.

I'm often one of his biggest critics but I did find the presentation interesting and informative, but also a little weird. The analogy to a chess game seemed a bit unnecessary and Cory looked somewhat uncomfortable playing alone with it.

 

[PandaBear]

Sandy Munro is certainly very knowledgeable but he's only human so his ability to predict the future is certainly flawed. I remember him on Autoline Detroit going on and on how the BMW i3 was revolutionary and it was going to change the industry, well I guess somebody forgot to tell the rest of the world as it's been a near non factor with anemic sales numbers.

i3 is a quick and dirty first prototype. BMW should have done more instead of leaving it as is. IMO Sandy has some problem predicting VTOL being the future. The drone business is not that easy and unless you are trying to work around traffic jam having a self driving delivery cart is going to be a more likely future. I wouldn't trust everything Sandy says but I do enjoy seeing from his perspective.

I do believe In 2050 Toyota will still be a good boring appliance choice for most of us, and the domestic 3 will still be the "we only build what makes money and only for the US market".