S-70 lost over Ukraine

[ecotourist]

So what then stops Russians to take part of Lithuania? Georgia? Estonia?

It sounds like you like you think I'm in favour of Russia's action. I'm not.

I believe Lithuania and Estonia are NATO members. Presumably NATO would have something to say about it. Canadian troops have been posted in Estonia quite recently.

Who protects Georgia? I'm not so sure.

 

[Number_35]

Didn't Putin recently say he wants Alaska back. Also Russian aircraft has been teasing the coast of Alaska.

Didn't Seward purchase Alaska from the Czar for $10M back c. 1874?

Imagine that money invested in the stock market at an average return of 8% over the past 150 years.

Perhaps Putin, the present defacto Czar, would like to buy it back.

1 x 10^6 x (1.08)^150 = 1 x 10^6 x 1.03172350067 x 10^5 = c. 1.032 x 10^11

That rounds down to $100B.

Actually, that would be a good deal for Russia. If I were the American president, no way!

 

[edyvw]

It sounds like you like you think I'm in favour of Russia's action. I'm not.

I believe Lithuania and Estonia are NATO members. Presumably NATO would have something to say about it. Canadian troops have been posted in Estonia quite recently.

Who protects Georgia? I'm not so sure.

No, I do not think you are for Russia. But, this thinking of: let's make a deal, does help them.

Why not test NATO after that? Would NATO go into direct confrontation if Russia attacked part of Finland where no one lives? Or Estonia?

10% of Georgia is already occupied by Russia, and the Russian military is present in Moldova.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

I agree with you that aggression must not be rewarded.
My idea of a negotiated settlement would be status quo ante, IOW formalize Russia's annexation of Crimea, Russia vacates all other areas of Ukraine, including its fake republics, give them about half of their sequestered foreign holdings back, with the rest going to Ukraine as reparations and agree to allow at least limited resumption of trade in at least crude and natural gas, with a more gradual resumption of broader trade but maybe not technically sensitive goods absent a decade or so of good Russian behavior.
Ukraine's membership in NATO would be left between the member states and Ukraine as would any accession to EU membership.
IOW, Russia gains nothing it didn't already have and still loses a lot, as is fitting.

Oh man I think that's a tall order. Remember the No 1 goal of Putin is to keep Ukraine from becoming a NATO member. After all the West reneged on its informal commitment that it would not happen. Besides eastern Ukraine has many pro-Russian factions. IMO it's all or nothing from their perspective. Zelenskyy not so much, as they're running out of bodies. Sign a peace treaty, get out of Ukraine, and the Russian violate it starting the slow grind of Psy-Ops to undermine the govt and finish the job.

IMO Putin wants to recreate the buffer states from the days of the Warsaw Pact.

 

[ecotourist]

Why not test NATO after that? Would NATO go into direct confrontation if Russia attacked part of Finland where no one lives? Or Estonia?

Finland is heavily armed because (reading between the lines) they assumed they'd have to fight Russia again some day. Impressive number of artillery pieces, mandatory military training for all males who remain in the reserves for much of their life, highways with long straight stretches designed for military aircraft use (but easily deniable to an aggressor), etc.

All that to say Russia would be taking on quite a formidable enemy with Finland alone - let alone with NATO forces arriving within days. So I don't think they'd try it. Especially after the mauling they've taken in Ukraine.

 

[edyvw]

Finland is heavily armed because (reading between the lines) they assumed they'd have to fight Russia again some day. Impressive number of artillery pieces, mandatory military training for all males who remain in the reserves for much of their life, highways with long straight stretches designed for military aircraft use (but easily deniable to an aggressor), etc.

All that to say Russia would be taking on quite a formidable enemy with Finland alone - let alone with NATO forces arriving within days. So I don't think they'd try it. Especially after the mauling they've taken in Ukraine.

You sound like a reasonable person.
You see, on 02/21/2022, I was sitting here with a bunch of people debating whether Putin would attack or not, and most of us, including me, were saying that he would be a fool to do it, that he has only 200,000 soldiers at the border, that he is a reasonable actor, etc.
And here we are.

 

[Jetronic]

It seems to me that a major part of Russia's failure to achieve more in Ukraine is that they lack a strong cadre of junior officers and non-comms and those that they have are not allowed to make tactical decisions on the ground.
Remember how many general officers Russia lost early in the war? What were these guys doing anywhere near the front?
Another puzzling question involves how easily Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian territory and held it with little opposition. How can this be?
There may be limits to the effectiveness of just throwing men and hardware into a fight and hoping that the country you're invading runs out before you do. While Russia may ultimately reach a negotiated agreement yielding them some gains, at what cost in lives, hardware, national wealth and future relations with the developed world?
Russia had made of itself a pariah for decades to come.

Not so puzzling, they knew about the threat but thought it wasn't real. Now that the ukrainians are there, it's in Russia's interest to keep them engaged there but not let them dig in. Russia had it's best 2 months (august and september) in the east, and october is shaping up to be even more effective. Ukraine is not putting up much of a fight, for the first time since feb 2022 Russia is claiming towns that aren't complete destroyed. The front line is finallymoving in Russia's favour even in areas that had not moved since 2014. How much of that is due to the amount of Ukrainian troops tied up in Kursk? I don't know how true it is but apparently new ukrainian recruits live for a week on average after reaching the front. That means any veteran you lose is a loss of experience you can't get back.

That is exactly what attritional warfare is, the side that can afford to lose the most men and material wins. And that's the type of war that's going on there. It also means that the front line doesn't move much for a year or 2 (after intial skirmishes and land grabs), until one side gets the upper hand (through the best trained and experienced low tier troops) and then things start moving ever more quickly. Every time you need to retreat from a well prepared position, you move into a less well prepared one aswell making defense even harder.

I don't think Russia is interested in a negotiated settlement if that leads to what remains of Ukraine joining NATO. They'd rather keep the war going, even if frozen.

Russia was a pariah to the west before 2022 already, they will be focusing on emerging markets, like in Africa and Asia. Countries with growing populations aswell.

 

[urman]

Conclusion from one of the Ukrainian officer (he is drone operator):

Launchers and air defense radars are not used on the combat demarcation line, because they become easy prey for drones and missiles (Iskander). But the drone (its control channel) from SU-57 was suppressed by electronic warfare means of the Ukrainian troops. The drone began an uncontrolled flight into the air defense zone of Ukraine and SU decided to shoot it down, because there were risks of SU-57 entering the air defense zone as well.

 

[fdcg27]

Russia is probably also having trouble filling its ranks and Ukraine does have the advantage of friends who have great productive capacity in quality hardware, while Russia relies upon the likes of Iran and North Korea. I don't think that China is supplying direct military aid since they have way too much to lose, although they and India remain more than happy to give Russia their own currencies in exchange for cheap energy and raw materials.
This war has been even more of a charnel house for Russia than it has been for Ukraine in terms of troop losses, although Russia does have a larger number of young men and prison inmates to impress into service than does Ukraine. In any event, this war has had a very negative impact upon the working age male population and will have a lasting impact on the average age of the Russian male population. This cannot be undone.

 

[javacontour]

It seems to me that a major part of Russia's failure to achieve more in Ukraine is that they lack a strong cadre of junior officers and non-comms and those that they have are not allowed to make tactical decisions on the ground.
Remember how many general officers Russia lost early in the war? What were these guys doing anywhere near the front?
Another puzzling question involves how easily Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian territory and held it with little opposition. How can this be?
There may be limits to the effectiveness of just throwing men and hardware into a fight and hoping that the country you're invading runs out before you do. While Russia may ultimately reach a negotiated agreement yielding them some gains, at what cost in lives, hardware, national wealth and future relations with the developed world?
Russia had made of itself a pariah for decades to come.

I've said it as follows, "Russia is the 2nd best army in Russia" as my take on the Kursk incursion.

How motivated are Russian soldiers if they can't (won't) stop Ukraine forces entering Kursk?

 

[javacontour]

You sound like a reasonable person.
You see, on 02/21/2022, I was sitting here with a bunch of people debating whether Putin would attack or not, and most of us, including me, were saying that he would be a fool to do it, that he has only 200,000 soldiers at the border, that he is a reasonable actor, etc.
And here we are.

The problem is you and I have a different story on the state of the Russian military than Putin had. Ditto for the state of the UAF.

If you were a top military adviser in Russia, would you be telling Putin the truth or what he wanted to hear?

The Kleptocracy culture and other dishonesty has caused the killing or wounding of nearly 1 million people if you count them up on both sides. (Best guess)

Seems the numbers today are Russia is losing on the order of 1200-1300 soldiers each day. That counts dead, wounded, missing and captured.

OSINT shows Russian storage depots holding 1/2 or less of the wheeled and tracked vehicles they had prior to their invasion.

It's reasonable to expect they've taken the best out first, so any additional vehicles pressed into service requires more work to get it battle "good enough" (I hesitate to use the term ready.)

Resources wise, Russia has about 12 -14 months remaining.

How long will the Russia wives and mothers tolerate the losses of their husbands and sons?

Russia has a history of enduring great pain. But it also has a history of her people getting fed up and running the leadership out of power.

 

[97prizm]

T72, compared to Abrams, had obsolete targeting equipment. At that time, the Yugoslavian M84 was probably the best version of the T72, considering it had Western and YU targeting equipment and much stronger engine. I have seen both in action, and they are serious stuff since they are small, have a low profile, and pack a serious punch (125mm). However, the problem is with auto-loading and ammo position. M1 is not without weaknesses. It is a large tank, it is easy to spot, etc. But, like all western tanks, it has separate ammon compartment with exhaust to vent out the fire and allow the crew 20-30sec to bail out.
So far in UKR it seems Leopard and Challenger are proving most effective.

This is odd as I can remember several accounts where M1 Abrams tank crews in Desert Storm were hitting and destroying Iraqi tanks (T50 maybe? ) from two miles out.

 

[javacontour]

This is odd as I can remember several accounts where M1 Abrams tank crews in Desert Storm were hitting and destroying Iraqi tanks (T50 maybe? ) from two miles out.

The biggest threat to tanks in Ukraine is from above.

Even the Abrams doesn't have thick armor on top.


The big difference seems to be crew survivability. The Abrams (and others) maybe taken out of the fight. However, the crew has a better chance of escaping and living to fight another day.

The T72, reigning "turret toss" world champion doesn't give the crew the same chance at survival.

 

[fdcg27]

One does wonder about the fate of the Russian intelligence officers who apparently told Putin that the Ukes would fold quickly. Of course, the early war brought a termination of Russian (Chechen?) special forces at Antonov Airport, teams sent to eliminate the Ukrainian government while a long armored column advancing along a small road would provide the early occupation force for Kyiv, a column stalled in an indefensible killing zone due to poor planning, poor maintenance and poor preparation, a column easily picked off by Ukrainian forces at their leisure.
While Putin proclaimed that the special operation was going to plan, although it was already in the toilet, I do wonder what was done with those intelligence folks.
Did some of them fall out of fifth story windows? Seemed to be a lot of that happening. Were some given the opportunity to fight for the Rodina in Ukraine, another death sentence. Are some laboring even now in the mines of the Kolyma, or are they already dead?
Putin cannot have been pleased with the intelligence based upon which he proceeded with his special operation.

 

[edyvw]

This is odd as I can remember several accounts where M1 Abrams tank crews in Desert Storm were hitting and destroying Iraqi tanks (T50 maybe? ) from two miles out.

Iraqis had various tanks, mostly T55, T64 and T72.

 

[edyvw]

One does wonder about the fate of the Russian intelligence officers who apparently told Putin that the Ukes would fold quickly. Of course, the early war brought a termination of Russian (Chechen?) special forces at Antonov Airport, teams sent to eliminate the Ukrainian government while a long armored column advancing along a small road would provide the early occupation force for Kyiv, a column stalled in an indefensible killing zone due to poor planning, poor maintenance and poor preparation, a column easily picked off by Ukrainian forces at their leisure.
While Putin proclaimed that the special operation was going to plan, although it was already in the toilet, I do wonder what was done with those intelligence folks.
Did some of them fall out of fifth story windows? Seemed to be a lot of that happening. Were some given the opportunity to fight for the Rodina in Ukraine, another death sentence. Are some laboring even now in the mines of the Kolyma, or are they already dead?
Putin cannot have been pleased with the intelligence based upon which he proceeded with his special operation.

Those at the bottom of food chain? WHo knows. They may be related correct info, maybe not. It was not some secrete that Ukrainians are ready to fight. My very good friend who knows Ukrainian society in and out said: if he attacks, they will eat them alive.
The problem for Putin are those that he cannot get rid of that easy. Russia is a country of institutionalized corruption, huge territory, and natural decentralization. That natural decentralization is going against the natural centralization of dictatorial regimes. In order for him to rule, he needs to have good relations with regional rulers and cast around him (Petrushev), etc. It is echo chamber, and it shows.

 

[Owen Lucas]

While historical China has been a country that does not care about indivuals, which would lead most people to think they would not mind loss of soldiers for obtaining a huge slice of Russia, China does have a huge demographics problem of no where near enough young people. So, that is a deterant regarding China wanting to fight any war. But also, China is facing a huge food supply problem. So, China would love to own the sections of Russia and or Ukraine that can grow crops.

This is China's last chance to fight any type of war. From not having enough women to procreate with to low soldier moral and poorly built / maintained equipment, they are not as tough as they claim to be. Their army isn't used to fighting wars either and the last battle they had recently was a border skirmish with India where they fought each other with sticks and stones like some kind of Neanderthal fight.

The problem is XI isn't getting much younger and supposedly he kills or jails anyone giving him bad news. With various power struggles and factions vying for power, what does he have to lose by launching nukes as a final screw you to the planet?

I guess we can only hope that this Borg like entity devours itself from lack of reproduction and some type of social change hopefully influenced by the west, but I would expect a lot of turmoil before it implodes.

If Russia and or Ukraine appear extremely weak after this war, that would make them attractive for China to try to take them.

I don't think China will be able to touch Ukraine, the EU and the US have invested way too much in order not to make an ROI.

 

[Jetronic]

And perhaps Ukraine will not give up the land it has occupied either. Though I suppose they might agree to trade it for the return of their own territory.

they took 1 small town and a bunch of farms, it's not worth much in exchange. Not even the same area worth anywhere in the east

 

[Jetronic]

Also Russian aircraft has been teasing the coast of Alaska.

Did they ever not do that, since the cold war?

 

[Jetronic]

Don't forget that China would like a huge slice of Russia. Russia has resources that China would love to own.

If Russia and or Ukraine appear extremely weak after this war, that would make them attractive for China to try to take them.

While historical China has been a country that does not care about indivuals, which would lead most people to think they would not mind loss of soldiers for obtaining a huge slice of Russia, China does have a huge demographics problem of no where near enough young people. So, that is a deterant regarding China wanting to fight any war. But also, China is facing a huge food supply problem. So, China would love to own the sections of Russia and or Ukraine that can grow crops.

Everyone expects China to try to acquire other countries besides Russia and Ukraine, but Russia and or Ukraine are much bigger prizes.

Of course China is controlled by only one person, so what ever he decides is what China will try to do.

The crop producing parts of Russia are towards the west, far from China's border. It's not gonna happen.