Real Estate Market

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lurker said:
Interest rates have been low for a generation, we have seen this for a long time now.
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No that’s not correct. I’ll give you nine years of below 4%. Never in the 2% range and never following a major event like Covid which created havoc in all segments of the economy.
Housing has always been cyclical and always will be, market forces will even it out in time.
 
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alarmguy said:
No that’s not correct. I’ll give you nine years of below 4%. Never in the 2% range and never following a major event like Covid which created havoc in all segments of the economy.
Housing has always been cyclical and always will be, market forces will even it out in time.
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Interest rates have been low for the last 20 years ( when I bought my first home and sold it last summer ) , I never said they are not getting even lower.

When I had a mortgage on my last home , the interest was “low”. It’s even lower today. I had ( Canada ) whats called a variable rate and it’s even lower. Not sure how much fixed rate mortgages were.

I am not getting into the debate about the overall housing price fundamentals except where I live.

We are never going to agree.
 
lurker said:
Interest rates have been low for the last 20 years ( when I bought my first home and sold it last summer ) , I never said they are not getting even lower.

When I had a mortgage on my last home , the interest was “low”. It’s even lower today. I had ( Canada ) whats called a variable rate and it’s even lower. Not sure how much fixed rate mortgages were.

I am not getting into the debate about the overall housing price fundamentals except where I live.

We are never going to agree.
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Yes, past the point of no return here.
Facts are all out there for anyone.
Supply and demand, homes are short in supply because people can afford to buy them.
This home price debate has been going on for the last century with each new group of buyers, hear me? *LOL* a century of talk on the affordability of homes. Makes great press and news.
I remember DECADES ago our real estate agent saying as she was showing us the limited homes for sale "you know, I really feel bad for young people" prices so high and choices limited, this was on Long Island, NY in the late 80s or 1990. Boy is that house dirt cheap now and we had someplace around 8 to 9% mortgage rates then. Wow did that expensive home we bought roughly ten years earlier double in price in just t5en years, now we are in the next leg of triple the price and more, all because of buying an overpriced home in the late 80s or almost 1990.

Last year, Throw in a world wide virus event as a wild card to not only delay construction of new homes and not only to increase raw materials prices of lumber ect plus the fact that less homes were are on the market because of other people staying put and buyers out in full force because of never in the history of the USA have such cheap mortgage rates.

Your wrong on the interest rates, so easy to look up on your computer. You say rates have been low for the last 20 years? What do you call low? How do you qualify low? Because you say low doesnt mean rates were low.
This is a fact, mortgage interest rates were around 300% higher 20 years ago then they are now. Here is a pretty good chart.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2604/30-year-fixed-mortgage-rate-chart

We dont agree on anything, and that is all ok, Fact is homes are selling like crazy all over the country, if they were unaffordable they would not be able to be sold.
I just get tired hearing whining in the "press" and media for something that has always been, supply and demand. Anyone can buy a home, if you cant afford one area, you will have to move to another or do something unique, save money and drive a $6,000 car instead of a $30,000 car, ditch the pay tv ya da ya da and dont expect to live in a home in a beautiful area if you didnt save your money.

But the fact of the matter is so many people are able to buy homes, there arent enough to go around right now! *L* Good news is, its one big cycle and we are in a great position as a seller. Low rates, tons of buyers = high sale prices.
 
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alarmguy said:
Yes, past the point of no return here.
Facts are all out there for anyone.
Supply and demand, homes are short in supply because people can afford to buy them.
This home price debate has been going on for the last century with each new group of buyers, hear me? *LOL* a century of talk on the affordability of homes. Makes great press and news.
I remember DECADES ago our real estate agent saying as she was showing us the limited homes for sale "you know, I really feel bad for young people" prices so high and choices limited, this was on Long Island, NY in the late 80s or 1990. Boy is that house dirt cheap now and we had someplace around 8 to 9% mortgage rates then. Wow did that expensive home we bought roughly ten years earlier double in price in just t5en years, now we are in the next leg of triple the price and more, all because of buying an overpriced home in the late 80s or almost 1990.

Last year, Throw in a world wide virus event as a wild card to not only delay construction of new homes and not only to increase raw materials prices of lumber ect plus the fact that less homes were are on the market because of other people staying put and buyers out in full force because of never in the history of the USA have such cheap mortgage rates.

Your wrong on the interest rates, so easy to look up on your computer. You say rates have been low for the last 20 years? What do you call low? How do you qualify low? Because you say low doesnt mean rates were low.
This is a fact, mortgage interest rates were around 300% higher 20 years ago then they are now. Here is a pretty good chart.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2604/30-year-fixed-mortgage-rate-chart

We dont agree on anything, and that is all ok, Fact is homes are selling like crazy all over the country, if they were unaffordable they would not be able to be sold.
I just get tired hearing whining in the "press" and media for something that has always been, supply and demand. Anyone can buy a home, if you cant afford one area, you will have to move to another or do something unique, save money and drive a $6,000 car instead of a $30,000 car, ditch the pay tv ya da ya da and dont expect to live in a home in a beautiful area if you didnt save your money.

But the fact of the matter is so many people are able to buy homes, there arent enough to go around right now! *L* Good news is, its one big cycle and we are in a great position as a seller. Low rates, tons of buyers = high sale prices.
Click to expand...
Did you not listen to what I told you in previous discussion? I am not interested in arguing about the underlying fundamentals driving home prices. The original question to people by the OP was, what is the market like in YOUR area. That’s what my responses have been about ( plus if local incomes are keeping up ). Including incomes.

Sorry, YOUR wrong if your trying to tell me that I wasn’t paying a “low” interest rate the last 20 years because I was and so was everyone else compared to my parents in the 1980s/90s.

I have NEVER heard a single person ( thinking of buying and shopping for a mortgage ) , home owner with a mortgage or mortgage expert not say we are lucky we are living in a ” low” interest rate environment the entire time I had a mortgage from 2002 to 2012 and it’s even lower now. I sold it last year.

However, I have heard people complain about over priced homes recently and how they are becoming unaffordable.

You don’t think homes are over priced , you feel peoples incomes are keepikg up ( even in places you cannot possibly know because you don’t live here ) and now you telling me I wasn’t paying a low rate when I carried a mortgage when I was.

I spent the last few days asking people I know ( and a few “experts” by most peoples standards ) whether they felt they paid low rates the last twenty years and they all said “yes”.

Just got an email ( I already know because I had a mortgage ) as I am typing this from probably the top economics/ finance expert in Canada ( who lives in MY area ) whose knowledge and expertise is relied on in Canadian parliament ( he is non partisan ) when committees discuss policy and he said ( what I already knew ) that We have been living in a “low” interest rate environment and it’s even lower now. He knows I had a mortgage in 2002.

I had a variable rate which was lower than a fixed rate.

we are done. Argue with someone else.
 
lurker said:
However, I have heard people complain about over priced homes recently and how they are becoming unaffordable.
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That's me complaining about high home prices since at least 2001.

Back then everything is expensive vs income: cars were expensive, electronics were expensive, flights were expensive, clothes were expensive. I remember reading some analysis of budget and see something like spending 20% on clothing and 28% on housing, 12% on eating out (lunch during work days), 20% on non eating out food, 20% on transportation, etc.

Today, I have never seen anyone, even magazine, telling people to budget 20% of income on clothing, and 28% on housing or 20% on transportation. Why is that? Inflation on some items but not others. Clothes and cars and food have DROP in prices compare to real cost of living and income ON AVERAGE. Realistically people are spending something like 40-50% of income on housing. This is why farmers are suffering and factory workers are suffering, their income didn't keep up with inflation. People working other jobs are just pumping more money into housing and that's why you see home prices go up.

I am not arguing what you are seeing, or home price is now out of reach using the old equation. What I am saying, is people are now making do with less in other areas to spend more on housing, or make do with less houses for the same prices (sharing room, finding roommates, living in urban condos instead of a house, staying home instead of moving out of mom's basement, longer commute, etc).

What will happen in the future? Urban sprawling of large metro, people working from multiple offices in the same time zone, hopefully home price will be more even within the same country instead of city center of large job hubs, and hopefully everyone has better quality of living as a result.

This has been happening in Asia (Seoul, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Taipei, Shanghai, Macau, etc etc, maybe not Singapore because they have middle class gov subsidized public housing everyone is living in). It is finally coming to US.
 
Most forget unless it is a 2nd-3rd property you too will have to pay up to move.
My niece went on FB the day before she was going to sign up with an agent and said she is going to list her house.
That night they sold it without the agent and are out on the street because they didn't realize the market.
 
That’s why it’s common to see multi generations of families living under one roof.

I see that a lot here in Florida, 6 cars parked in front lawn cause 2 people have trouble paying for everything.
 
PandaBear said:
That's me complaining about high home prices since at least 2001.

Back then everything is expensive vs income: cars were expensive, electronics were expensive, flights were expensive, clothes were expensive. I remember reading some analysis of budget and see something like spending 20% on clothing and 28% on housing, 12% on eating out (lunch during work days), 20% on non eating out food, 20% on transportation, etc.

Today, I have never seen anyone, even magazine, telling people to budget 20% of income on clothing, and 28% on housing or 20% on transportation. Why is that? Inflation on some items but not others. Clothes and cars and food have DROP in prices compare to real cost of living and income ON AVERAGE. Realistically people are spending something like 40-50% of income on housing. This is why farmers are suffering and factory workers are suffering, their income didn't keep up with inflation. People working other jobs are just pumping more money into housing and that's why you see home prices go up.

I am not arguing what you are seeing, or home price is now out of reach using the old equation. What I am saying, is people are now making do with less in other areas to spend more on housing, or make do with less houses for the same prices (sharing room, finding roommates, living in urban condos instead of a house, staying home instead of moving out of mom's basement, longer commute, etc).

What will happen in the future? Urban sprawling of large metro, people working from multiple offices in the same time zone, hopefully home price will be more even within the same country instead of city center of large job hubs, and hopefully everyone has better quality of living as a result.

This has been happening in Asia (Seoul, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Taipei, Shanghai, Macau, etc etc, maybe not Singapore because they have middle class gov subsidized public housing everyone is living in). It is finally coming to US.
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It wasn’t meant for you, you gave up trying to change my mind. It was for the other guy about interest rates.

I am done talking about both Where I live.
 
Like most things, housing prices are a function of demand and supply. I minored in Econ at San Jose State.
The study of Economics is concerned with the allocation of scarce resources.

"In microeconomics, supply and demand is an economic model of price determination in a market. It postulates that, holding all else equal, in a competitive market, the unit price for a particular good, or other traded item such as labor or liquid financial assets, will vary until it settles at a point where the quantity demanded (at the current price) will equal the quantity supplied (at the current price), resulting in an economic equilibrium for price and quantity transacted. It forms the theoretical basis of modern economics."
 
ArrestMeRedZ said:
I hear there is a lot of Hong Kong money and owners fleeing to Canada. I suspect that will impact real estate prices in The Great White North until the PRC cracks down.
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The PRC cracked down a long time ago. Even before the thing we can’t talk about here, a person from Hong Kong couldn’t just leave.

The flight to BC started back with the handover and even before as wealthy citizens saw the writing on the wall. That influx of HK’ers into Vancouver disrupted the real estate market there enough that locals couldn’t afford it. The BC government enacted a tax/tariff of sorts on foreigners buying real estate. The result was that those HK buyers went south into WA and OR. Seattle, Tacoma, and Portland markets have exploded as such.

In all honesty, Hong Kong has ceased to exist.
 
It’s hot all around the country. Even here in California. Everything sells quick. Trashy dumps selling for over 300k. Cookie cutters over 600k. Don’t understand how so many people afford a $3500 mortgage. When I was selling my home in 2019, nothing was moving. Sucks. Looks like I’m out to build my own home-electrician by trade-so I know my way around construction. Never gonna pay these inflated prices. Recipe for disaster.
 
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PimTac said:
The PRC cracked down a long time ago. Even before the thing we can’t talk about here, a person from Hong Kong couldn’t just leave.

The flight to BC started back with the handover and even before as wealthy citizens saw the writing on the wall. That influx of HK’ers into Vancouver disrupted the real estate market there enough that locals couldn’t afford it. The BC government enacted a tax/tariff of sorts on foreigners buying real estate. The result was that those HK buyers went south into WA and OR. Seattle, Tacoma, and Portland markets have exploded as such.

In all honesty, Hong Kong has ceased to exist.
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Not true at all. The "wall" is between China and HK, not from HK to everywhere else on earth.

People have been leaving HK for decades, many went to Canada and Australia because it is easier to move there for "investment" reason. US would be harder to enter due to the requirement to "create jobs" rather than just bringing in money for investment funds (i.e. the equivalent of buying Federal and State bonds).

The wave of HK money was surpassed by China's money in the last decade. They had their own real estate boom and they let people cash out and leave if they are immigrating to another country. (The typical rate Chinese can bring money outside their country for non immigration non business reason, is about 15k USD per year from what I heard). I would agree that HK has been changing politically, but money can go in and out still, freely, and currency is still pegged to USD.

The reality is still the same, USD is devaluating and interest rate is near zero, people (especially foreigners with their own currency pegged to USD, like Japanese, Chinese, HK, Taiwan, South Korean, Latin American) want to buy something real instead of just let it devalue. What I have been seeing is the real dollar devaluation is about 1/2 every 15 years or so since the 90s. It is finally pushing further and further in from coastal real estate to the Mid West.
 
MrStamper said:
It’s hot all around the country. Even here in California. Everything sells quick. Trashy dumps selling for over 300k. Cookie cutters over 600k. Don’t understand how so many people afford a $3500 mortgage. When I was selling my home in 2019, nothing was moving. Sucks. Looks like I’m out to build my own home-electrician by trade-so I know my way around construction. Never gonna pay these inflated prices. Recipe for disaster.
Click to expand...

Where in California are you in?
 
PandaBear said:
Not true at all. The "wall" is between China and HK, not from HK to everywhere else on earth.

People have been leaving HK for decades, many went to Canada and Australia because it is easier to move there for "investment" reason. US would be harder to enter due to the requirement to "create jobs" rather than just bringing in money for investment funds (i.e. the equivalent of buying Federal and State bonds).

The wave of HK money was surpassed by China's money in the last decade. They had their own real estate boom and they let people cash out and leave if they are immigrating to another country. (The typical rate Chinese can bring money outside their country for non immigration non business reason, is about 15k USD per year from what I heard). I would agree that HK has been changing politically, but money can go in and out still, freely, and currency is still pegged to USD.

The reality is still the same, USD is devaluating and interest rate is near zero, people (especially foreigners with their own currency pegged to USD, like Japanese, Chinese, HK, Taiwan, South Korean, Latin American) want to buy something real instead of just let it devalue. What I have been seeing is the real dollar devaluation is about 1/2 every 15 years or so since the 90s. It is finally pushing further and further in from coastal real estate to the Mid West.
Click to expand...


I think I understand your point.
 
Circular argument and venturing into political commentary.

Several pages of members talking at each other isn't conversation
 
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