"Oil is NOT a fossil fuel"

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Originally Posted By: cchase
Spend some time, read what I wrote. You're making this personal when I never said what I thought about this stuff. I never said I don't believe what those wikipedia entries contained.

you're undermining facts.
 
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
[snip]Given that generation is all over, [snip]


Is it really a given? We should review our assumptions from time to time.
 
Originally Posted By: benjamming
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
[snip]Given that generation is all over, [snip]


Is it really a given? We should review our assumptions from time to time.


You misread, I miswrote. Generation is "all over" as in all over the globe. We know this because we derive crude from all over. There is no single point source where oil is all formed, this is pretty certain.

So, it remains a kinetic issue. Formation is less than use, so we will run out. Practical scavenging of widely dispersed oil, even if it is being produced, makes the issue far tougher to solve.

It means that all concerns and all approaches to reduce consumption are still absolutely critical.
 
I think you misread his mass balance equation, but would you care to offer an alternative POV?

I look at it as the wood choppers guild providing fuel to heat homes. The more they cut, the more they make, the more homes are heated. Without factoring the time from seedling to maturity of the trees, they can merely look at all the available forest and continue to expand the number of homes heating with wood.
Once they tip over the sustainable deforestation threshold, they're doomed as wood choppers at some future point. They have two choices. Continue down an assured path of demand outstripping supply ...having an increasing share of a declining market, or reduce supply to the point of sustainability and allow alternatives to satisfy added demand for the wood. The wood will valuate under full market mandates of supply and demand, but will not be consumed to the point of non-viability due to lack of supply.

This is how you run your household finances. This is how you fill your tank ..wash your clothes ...buy your food. You do it all, in one fashion or another, on the model that you will continue to sustain a viable household. One with heat, food, shelter that you can afford to do on a continuous basis for the longer term. You don't turn your thermostat up to maximum, buy every food item you can on credit, or take vacations at a cost that outstrips your ability to pay for them and live too. If you add more members to the household, you will make adjustments to all those things.

Now you can always believe in "Magic of the THEY". This is where you continue on in bliss and figure "THEY'LL think of something" ..as though YOU are on "THEIR" radar in keeping your idea of a lifestyle in mind.

Why do you think that WIN, one of our more savvy trading players is totally off the grid? I will tell that it's not due to his faith in "Magic of the THEY".
 
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It means that all concerns and all approaches to reduce consumption are still absolutely critical.

At what cost?

How much should we pay for diminishing efficiency returns?
 
How much is left Tempest, and at what rate is it made versus consumed ?

I need EXACT numbers as to how much is left.
 
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I need EXACT numbers as to how much is left.

Now see, that's the tricky part. No one knows, and all past estimates by "experts" have been laughably wrong.

So how do you price something valuable that is (presumably) limited to an unknown degree, in order to "conserve" it?

Further, to what degree do we artificially impact our current living standards to "conserve" something that is currently plentiful and cheap?
 
Yes. The Grasshopper method of planning is clearly indicated here. No need for the preparedness of the ant.

Carry on.

In reality, promote grasshopper behavior and quietly be the ant.


Amon Goeth: Why do you do this? You're giving them hope.
 
"The fact remains that the abiotic theory of petroleum genesis has zero credibility for economically interesting accumulations. 99.9999% of the world's liquid hydrocarbons are produced by maturation of organic matter derived from organisms. To deny this means you have to come up with good explanations for the following observations.

1. The almost universal association of petroleum with sedimentary rocks.

2. The close link between petroleum reservoirs and source rocks as shown by biomarkers (the source rocks contain the same organic markers as the petroleum, essentially chemically fingerprinting the two).

3. The consistent variation of biomarkers in petroleum in accordance with the history of life on earth (biomarkers indicative of land plants are found only in Devonian and younger rocks, that formed by marine plankton only in Neoproterozoic and younger rocks, the oldest oils containing only biomarkers of bacteria).

3. The close link between the biomarkers in source rock and depositional environment (source rocks containing biomarkers of land plants are found only in terrestrial and shallow marine sediments, those indicating marine conditions only in marine sediments, those from hypersaline lakes containing only bacterial biomarkers).

4. Progressive destruction of oil when heated to over 100 degrees (precluding formation and/or migration at high temperatures as implied by the abiogenic postulate).

5. The generation of petroleum from kerogen on heating in the laboratory (complete with biomarkers), as suggested by the biogenic theory.

6. The strong enrichment in C12 of petroleum indicative of biological fractionation (no inorganic process can cause anything like the fractionation of light carbon that is seen in petroleum).

7. The location of petroleum reservoirs down the hydraulic gradient from the source rocks in many cases (those which are not are in areas where there is clear evidence of post migration tectonism).

8 ) The almost complete absence of significant petroleum occurrences in igneous and metamorphic rocks (the rare exceptions discussed below).

The evidence usually cited in favour of abiogenic petroleum can all be better explained by the biogenic hypothesis e.g.:

9. Rare traces of cooked pyrobitumens in igneous rocks (better explained by reaction with organic rich country rocks, with which the pyrobitumens can usually be tied).

10. Rare traces of cooked pyrobitumens in metamorphic rocks (better explained by metamorphism of residual hydrocarbons in the protolith).

11. The very rare occurrence of small hydrocarbon accumulations in igneous or metamorphic rocks (in every case these are adjacent to organic rich sedimentary rocks to which the hydrocarbons can be tied via biomarkers).

12. The presence of undoubted mantle derived gases (such as He and some CO2) in some natural gas (there is no reason why gas accumulations must be all from one source, given that some petroleum fields are of mixed provenance it is inevitable that some mantle gas contamination of biogenic hydrocarbons will occur under some circumstances).

13. The presence of traces of hydrocarbons in deep wells in crystalline rock (these can be formed by a range of processes, including metamorphic synthesis by the fischer-tropsch reaction, or from residual organic matter as in 10).

14. Traces of hydrocarbon gases in magma volatiles (in most cases magmas ascend through sedimentary succession, any organic matter present will be thermally cracked and some will be incorporated into the volatile phase, some fischer-tropsch synthesis can also occur).

15. Traces of hydrocarbon gases at mid ocean ridges (such traces are not surprising given that the upper mantle has been contaminated with biogenic organic matter through several billion years of subduction, the answer to 14 may be applicable also).

The geological evidence is utterly against the abiogenic postulate. "

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/11/4/15537/8056

This kind of [censored](abiotic oil) crops up every few years, just people that don't know much about what they're talking about, enchanted by wishful thinking.
 
Originally Posted By: Tempest
Quote:
No need for the preparedness of the ant.
s
Can you answer my questions?


You ask questions that only have nebulous and unattainable answers. The question is in the can, so to speak. It's not a discussion, but a matter of offering questions that suggest something ..while asserting absolutely nothing.

..but while I'm at it, why should I have to answer your question?

No one can answer your question definitively ..which I have a feeling you'll insist on. You always configure it for some escape clause.

Can you answer this questions?

When the population double ..no ...let's make it 9B, do you think that the current production levels are going to be enough to go around?

Do you you think that our lifestyle, as it is viewed by today's standards, has a snowball's chance in a pre-CC July of being ANYTHING like it is today in the form of portable energy? That it will be JUST as freely used and expended ..at a comparable cost????

Can you answer those questions? I'll even allow you to speculate on what your imagination can come up with. I won't ask for anything definitive.
 
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You ask questions that only have nebulous and unattainable answers.

I ask simple questions of those making a specific claim. If the answers to simple questions are "nebulous and unattainable", maybe the claim is invalid...

I see many people say "conserve, conserve, we must conserve!" This assumes first that we are not conserving. Considering how hard it is to be ALLOWED to drill for oil, I'd say we are doing a pretty bang up job of conserving.

Second, if we are using "too much" oil (whatever the "nebulous" answer is of "too much"), then we must come to some conclusion as to both the method and HOW MUCH we need to cut back.

I'm only asking for the rational and methodology as to how those questions are answered.
 
Well, let's invert the question and see how definite you can make the answers.

How long is the current rate of production sustainable?

Do you have any definitive proof abiotic oil exist or is produced in sufficient quantities to sustain current levels of GROWTH in demand?

Do you have any insight into substitutes for portable liquid energy AT CURRENT LEVELS OF OUR CONSUMPTION that doesn't involve "the magic of the market"? That is, in your imagination?

and how will all that effect US as global demand increases exponentially??
 
In terms of population, you are simply putting forth the same arguments that Ehrlich did in 1968 with the "Population bomb". Those arguments have been proven to be wrong many times over.
 
Originally Posted By: Gary Allan
Well, let's invert the question and see how definite you can make the answers.

How long is the current rate of production sustainable?

Do you have any definitive proof abiotic oil exist or is produced in sufficient quantities to sustain current levels of GROWTH in demand?


As oil gets more expensive, it will be used less. So long as there is a free market to develop alternatives, there will be alternatives to be had.
I have no idea what will be the best solution, but the market (if allowed to work) will determine it. The market picked and provided oil. It will do the same for the replacement.

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Do you have any insight into substitutes for portable liquid energy AT CURRENT LEVELS OF OUR CONSUMPTION that doesn't involve "the magic of the market"? That is, in your imagination?

Please tell me what non-market solutions are right around the corner to replace oil that will not have the side affects you speak of.
 
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As oil gets more expensive, it will be used less. So long as there is a free market to develop alternatives, there will be alternatives to be had.
I have no idea what will be the best solution, but the market (if allowed to work) will determine it. The market picked and provided oil. It will do the same for the replacement.


Ah ..but the market has no sense of sustaining the status quo in terms of utility. You give the impression that it will be "business as usual" in that "IT'S ALL CLEAR!! THERE'S NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT!!".

"THE MARKET" can only have room for 1/10 the current participants @ .1 the utility in producing. Isn't that true??


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Please tell me what non-market solutions are right around the corner to replace oil that will not have the side affects you speak of.


This is not an answer.
 
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This is not an answer.

That is correct. You state that the market cannot be counted on to provide. This means that a non-market force can. I'm asking you what that answer is.
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"THE MARKET" can only have room for 1/10 the current participants @ .1 the utility in producing. Isn't that true??

I have no idea what you are saying here.
 
Count on the non market for heavily subsidized non solutions as the ethanol and shale oil boondoggles.

I still see abiotic as too good to be true.
 
Originally Posted By: labman
Count on the non market for heavily subsidized non solutions as the ethanol and shale oil boondoggles.

I still see abiotic as too good to be true.


That's because it is a fairy tale.
 
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