As others have said, it partly depends on how many short trips, city miles, and highway miles make up the 500 a year.
It also depends on your climate and if the car is stored in a heated garage in winter. Take my car for example.
I recently changed my 97 Buick Park Ave oil at 3.5 years. It's only driven around 500 miles a year. About 50/50 city/highway. Only about ⅓ of city miles are short trip. The other ⅔ of city miles are 30-40 min drives. The highway miles are 30-120 min drives.
I live on the border between Western OR & WA. The climate here is mostly moderate temps, but wet. However, we're currently having an artic cold front and it's around 24F every night and morning for 2 weeks now. Some years temps occasionally get as low as 8F.
However, my car is stored in a passively heated garage that never gets colder than 50F in winter. Usually my garage is around 60-65F in winter. So my car never gets an extremely cold start. This helps reduce engine wear and keep oil cleaner. My car is allowed to idle 1 min before putting in gear and gently driving way. It's driven gently for first 10-15 minutes.
I check my oil level once every 3 months. I wipe dipstick on a white paper towel so I can see oil color. New Valvoline Maxlife synthetic is very light in color (almost transparent). After 3.5 years and 1747 miles the Maxlife synthetic was medium brown.
Black doesn't mean an oil is dirty enough to change, but it does mean it's at least somewhat dirty. My oil was medium brown. So I conclude that it was still relatively clean.
When oil oxidizes from use or age that that darkens it (even if the oil is unused), but mine was still medium brown in color. So obviously relatively clean and not oxidized much, if any.
I also always look at the underside of the oil filler cap to verify that it still looks clean. i.e. - no frothy milkshake look, and no dark scum buildup. At each oil change the underside of cap gets wiped off. That way I can look at it each time I check oil to get an idea of oil condition.
I think the Maxlife Synthetic could have lasted 5+ years, but I changed it at 3.5 years because I had a minor oil leak. I'm now using Maxlife Blend and the leak is gone! I'll probably change the Maxlife Blend every 4 years in future because a blend will oxidize slightly faster than full syn.
I recall seeing a Lake Speed video where he said unused synthetic should be still good to use after 5 years storage. A conventional after 3 years storage. So I figure a blend ought to last 4 years in storage. I think those are conservative numbers, IMO.
I think Maxlife Blend will be good for 4+ years in my car, but I'll keep an eye on it. I'll probably change it at 4 years.
If your car is stored in a heated garage in winter, and less than ⅓ of your miles are short trips, then I think synthetic oil could last you 5 yrs, conv 3 yrs, blend 4 years.
But you don't have to blindly guess. You can look at the oil level and condition and with some knowledge and judgement you'll be fine. If you want to make extra sure, then at 2 years have your oil tested by labratory. Test again at 3 years, and so on each year until the lab says it needs changing.
I was using a Baldwin filter with black nitrile rubber gasket and antidrainback valve with no problems that I know of. However, I've recently learned that it'd be more ideal to use a filter with a silicon gasket and silicon anti-drainback valve seal, especially if leaving it on the car for many years.
Silicon gasket and ADBV seal are typically pink to make it visually obvious that they're silicon.
Also, get a filter that filters 99% @ 30 microns or smaller. 20 or 25 microns is better. A lot of filters only filter 99% @ 40 to 47 microns.