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JeffKeryk said:
Imagine a network of real time data inputs (aka cars) connected to a system, which can include weather and road conditions. Inputs can be added as they arise, additional inputs are basically unlimited, algorithms can be modified.
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I think we will all be worm food before that milestone occurs ... and before AI cars can think ahead more than a good human driver.
 
OVERKILL said:
I'm completely understanding your point and offence taken. You seem to be struggling with the idea that a human can ever be better in a given situation than a series of algorithms and feedback sensors (and GPS, weather data...etc) because they can make the decision before the event unfolds. Your personal anecdotes about execs making strategy isn't similar. It's far more like all the models for climate change, they've all been wrong, every single one, despite having essentially unlimited resources at their disposal, because there are just too many unknowns. Be creative, think of situations where there are simply too many variables for predictive computation to succeed, that, instead of being reactive, intuitively making the wrong choice intentionally because it was smart.

I work with computers, remember, you aren't surrounded by a gaggle of technologically illiterate luddites. GIGO doesn't even come into play here, this is intuition and making the "wrong" decision (going for the ditch/field) because it's the better decision than trying to stop in a situation where doing so is impossible.

For the sake of keeping this rooted in reality, take a loot at my situation again:

You are driving down the highway and there's a patch of black ice coming into the corner. No weather data tells you that there's black ice on the road, the highway could be clear for miles leading up and leading away from it. The transport trailer stepping out in front of you is your only indication that something is about to unfold. At that point, in traffic, even if the truck was part of the same system and this situation could be communicated to others, the clutch of vehicles all within that area are without a means of stopping them from being involved in this collision because of the surface they are on are and all of them, if automated, just "learned" about that fact as it is happening. Now consider vehicles closer to the trailer that weren't aware of the ice prior to applying the brakes are already sliding, no amount of ABS is going to allow avoidance at this point. The person, who saw the trailer stepping out and already, instead of braking, made the decision to head toward the shoulder, can avoid the pile-up that's now happening.

Now, yes, vehicles further up the road, still on a tractive surface can predictively avoid piling into the wreck, so, statistically, the pileup could certainly be smaller than if it was all just people, driving on their own accord, and being of varied ability, and that seems to be the part of AI that you are focusing on, the overall statistical reduction in accidents, while, I must assume intentionally, dismissing the fact that a good driver would be able to avoid collisions that AI would not, and, there will be new types of collisions that emerge with AI, just like we've seen with aviation where unintended consequences of automation create novel failure models that, while addressable, resulted in avoidable fatalities during this "learning" process.
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Respectfully, while we agree on many points, we disagree on others.
Isn't it possible that satellite images or other instruments could help identify black ice? If conditions that enable black ice exist, perhaps vehicles could increase following distance? As you pointed out, a good driver very well make an accident saving decision. What about all the other drivers?
 
OVERKILL said:
You are driving down the highway and there's a patch of black ice coming into the corner. No weather data tells you that there's black ice on the road, the highway could be clear for miles leading up and leading away from it. The transport trailer stepping out in front of you is your only indication that something is about to unfold.
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I've had something very like that happen. I was driving on a main Alberta highway on a beautiful sunny winter day. Suddenly I noticed the half ton truck well behind me start to wobble. Looking closer, the highway behind me was kind of shiny. Black ice! Time to click off the cruise and slow down.

For the record, half ton trucks are the canaries in the coal mine. When they start to wobble on a clear highway or go off the road on a curve, you'd better watch out.
 
OVERKILL said:
Now, you are right that apparently there was a series of steps that could be followed to completely disable MCAS, but it would seem, based on the report that I've read, that this was not effective, and so they turned the computer back on, and it immediately tried to "correct" the craft again, causing the crash.
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If I recall correctly (there are big threads about it in the Aviation forum), there was a simple procedure to disable MCAS and just fly the plane manually. Pilots flying those planes were not properly trained, not aware, and/or they forgot the process to over-ride the system. Once the MCAS system was disabled, the plane could be flown manually just fine.

OVERKILL said:
Boeing claimed, at the time, that they were working on an update to correct the issue.
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The 737s are back in the air as most know ... took over 2 years of hell to get there. The 737 Max is now probably the safest aircraft in the world, lol.
 
ZeeOSix said:
I think we will all be worm food before that milestone occurs ... and before AI cars can think ahead more than a good human driver.
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Sure, a massive computer system like this is a long way off. I only wish there were more good human drivers right now.
Coming home from Costco about 9:00 AM this Sunday morning I witnessed numerous dangerous actions including road rage at perhaps 90 mph.
 
JeffKeryk said:
Respectfully, while we agree on many points, we disagree on others.
Isn't it possible that satellite images or other instruments could help identify black ice? If conditions that enable black ice exist, perhaps vehicles could increase following distance? As you pointed out, a good driver very well make an accident saving decision. What about all the other drivers?
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The number of satellites you'd need watching roads in real time for that to happen is an impossibility IMHO and then you have tunnels, bad weather...etc that prevent that sort of feedback. Road conditions outside of major centres are so dynamic that they create a pool of far too many variables for this to work.

What I suspect we'll see is automation taking a bigger role in urban centres, where there are fewer variables (even accounting for the unpredictable pedestrian, at in-town speeds, the ability to avoid accidents increases with automation) related to weather and nature. These systems will likely transition to a driver-controlled model in areas where the system is less likely to be superior, where the system is still providing collision avoidance, but some functions are neutered. This would make sense on rural 2-lanes where you'd take the ditch rather than try to stop from hitting a moose for example.

I also suspect that we'll see driverless ride programs increase in popularity in these urban areas as well.
 
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ZeeOSix said:
If I recall correctly (there are big threads about it in the Aviation forum), there was a simple procedure to disable MCAS and just fly the plane manually. Pilots flying those planes were not properly trained, not aware, and/or they forgot the process to over-ride the system. Once the MCAS system was disabled, the plane could be flown manually just fine.


The 737s are back in the air as most know ... took over 2 years of hell to get there. The 737 Max is now probably the safest aircraft in the world, lol.
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Yep, I remember the thread :)

This BBC article is the one I'm thinking of:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47553174

The section of interest is the three minutes between 8:40 and 8:43:
1645385962945.webp


Where it sounds like they disabled the power to the MCAS, but then couldn't control the stabilizers, so then turned it back on, at which point it stepped back in and crashed the plane.

And yes, after all of this, I assume is has the most heavily vetted software in aviation history, which is already massively more QC'd than automotive software, so you are quite right, it should be the safest craft in the air at this point.
 
JeffKeryk said:
Sure, a massive computer system like this is a long way off. I only wish there were more good human drivers right now.
Coming home from Costco about 9:00 AM this Sunday morning I witnessed numerous dangerous actions including road rage at perhaps 90 mph.
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This is aggravated by the fact that drivers are getting worse, I'm sure. Distraction, coupled with increased impatience and desensitization due to a lack of human interaction has created a "me first" (entitled) group of people unfamiliar with there being consequences for their actions. On top of that, I've noticed an increasing number of elderly drivers who get confused by modern vehicles but (understandably) don't want to give up their freedom, becoming increasing hazards themselves. You put those two together, and the results are predictably bad.
 
OVERKILL said:
The section of interest is the three minutes between 8:40 and 8:43:
View attachment 89733

Where it sounds like they disabled the power to the MCAS, but then couldn't control the stabilizers, so then turned it back on, at which point it stepped back in and crashed the plane.
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At the point where they tried to go full manual, it was too late ... too much force on the stabilizers for the manual control system.
 
OVERKILL said:
This is aggravated by the fact that drivers are getting worse, I'm sure. Distraction, coupled with increased impatience and desensitization due to a lack of human interaction has created a "me first" (entitled) group of people unfamiliar with there being consequences for their actions. On top of that, I've noticed an increasing number of elderly drivers who get confused by modern vehicles but (understandably) don't want to give up their freedom, becoming increasing hazards themselves. You put those two together, and the results are predictably bad.
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It seems we agree on numerous points. Human error, sometimes with malice, is the #1 cause of accidents by far. Statistics certainly bear this out.

You point about older drivers and modern cars is underscored in my experience. I love to let others take a spin in our Model 3, primarily those who have never driven one. Younger people immeadiately and intuitively take to the car's interface, one pedal driving, etc while older persons oftentimes hate it; almost cannot wait to get out of the driver's seat.
 
ZeeOSix said:
At the point where they tried to go full manual, it was too late ... too much force on the stabilizers for the manual control system.
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Of course the first step was the temporary disabling of MCAS, which was per Boeing's instruction. They had no idea that one of the sensors was having a stroke and feeding the system faulty data and it was never going to be "right". The timeline was so short... Now, imagine a system where the human has no role. There's no overriding to be had because the person isn't there. That's what spooks me about AI, particularly when it comes to passenger vehicles, where the software and systems aren't held to the same standard as aviation.
 
OVERKILL said:
Now, imagine a system where the human has no role. There's no overriding to be had because the person isn't there. That's what spooks me about AI, particularly when it comes to passenger vehicles, where the software and systems aren't held to the same standard as aviation.
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Like riding on a crazy spooked horse ... hang on and take a ride. 😂
 
JeffKeryk said:
It seems we agree on numerous points. Human error, sometimes with malice, is the #1 cause of accidents by far. Statistics certainly bear this out.

You point about older drivers and modern cars is underscored in my experience. I love to let others take a spin in our Model 3, primarily those who have never driven one. Younger people immeadiately and intuitively take to the car's interface, one pedal driving, etc while older persons oftentimes hate it; almost cannot wait to get out of the driver's seat.
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Yes, that's been my experience as well. My dad found the technology in my wife's truck overwhelming when he first drove it. He drove my Jeep a few times and it took him several outings before he figured out the climate control.

Amusing anecdote:
He and my mom took the truck to one of their appointments in Toronto. On one of the highways my dad hit the gear limit button instead of the cruise one and couldn't figure out what he'd done and why it was revving to the moon. He pulled over to the side of the road, put it in park, put it back in drive and then it was OK. He called me from the hospital relaying his experience and I told him what he'd done and he, being a bit exasperated, commented on why they'd have such a stupid feature, lol.

He was however, quite pleased with himself that he figured out the cruise control :LOL:

I do give him props for trying though, and he did drive our e-tron and was OK with it, but didn't try to do anything other than drive, he wasn't playing around with the infotainment or climate control.
 
ZeeOSix said:
If I recall correctly (there are big threads about it in the Aviation forum), there was a simple procedure to disable MCAS and just fly the plane manually. Pilots flying those planes were not properly trained, not aware, and/or they forgot the process to over-ride the system. Once the MCAS system was disabled, the plane could be flown manually just fine.


The 737s are back in the air as most know ... took over 2 years of hell to get there. The 737 Max is now probably the safest aircraft in the world, lol.
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Super simple.

Trim Disconnect switches on the pedestal. Right by the throttles.

Big. Red. Switches.

The kind you would expect to use in an…emergency….Throw the two switches, and MCAS, along with electric trim, is disabled.

The airplane can still be trimmed manually.

The story of MCAS, and that crash, is complex, but the solution to the runaway trim caused by MCAS, was incredibly simple. Disconnect the trim.

However, and this is where the complexity comes in, once you’ve got the airplane trimmed for full nose down, there is 70+ lbs of control column force required to keep it level. All that load on the elevator makes the manual trim wheel too hard to move. You have to pull up, unload the elevator, then trim.

An early disconnect would’ve precluded that unload requirement. And reconnecting the trim caused the system to start trimming nose down again (Responding to the faulty AOA input.). The crew in this case did just about everything wrong, but their training was inadequate, English wasn’t the first language for either of them, and the FO had only a few hundred hours of total time.

It was the confluence of bad systems engineering by Boeing, airlines executives who bought the sales pitch, poor training, inexperienced pilots, difficulty communicating, and a sensor that faulted. All of those factors together caused that crash.
 
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JeffKeryk said:
@OVERKILL I am sure my father, a Yale Unversity grad, never once used Cruise Control in his life.
And the apple doesn't fall too far from the tree; I have zero interest in CC.
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My dad is turning 70 this year. The cars we had in the 80's had cruise and he was quite fond of it. Since I grew up with its use, I of course naturally took to it as well. I don't recall my grandfather ever using it, even on a vehicle that was so equipped, likely similar to your dad.
 
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