Mack Truck laying off 100s in PA & MD

[scoot]

I'm conservative in most of my beliefs, I don't like the day to day reversals, I don't like certain industries and companies being sheltered . That's all I have to say about that .

 

[PWMDMD]

I see this as a short term geo-political play that isn't just focused on US manufacturing and economy. Telegraphing this as a trade imbalance makes it much more appealing to Americans which mostly have no clue or care about what's going on in the rest of the world.

The EU will learn their lesson and start to seriously finance the problems in their own backyard after we soften tariffs.

Russia and China will destabilize and scramble for solutions at our mercy which will involve prioritizing US interests.

I'll wager that we get back to normal and the stock market will hit ATH by fall.

You really believe this? Huh....

 

[Astro14]

The great misconception. There are 8 billion people on this planet and 350 million Americans. While we do have more money per capita to spend, there are 22x more people out in the world to buy products other than Americans.

The great misconception is that those numbers matter.

They don’t.

Population doesn’t buy things. Money does.

More than a billion of those people get by on less than a dollar a day. Nobody is selling to that demographic.

Look at per capita GDP to know what potential sales look like to the consumers in a country.

Based on GDP and income, the US remains an important, if not the most important, market for goods and services.

Much like the “194” countries. That number doesn’t matter, either, when the populations of those countries can’t afford the goods you’re making.

 

[PWMDMD]

The great misconception is that those numbers matter.

They don’t.

Population doesn’t buy things. Money does.

More than a billion of those people get by on less than a dollar a day. Nobody is selling to that demographic.

Look at per capita GDP to know what potential sales look like to the consumers in a country.

Based on GDP and income, the US remains an important, if not the most important, market for goods and services.

Much like the “194” countries. That number doesn’t matter, either, when the populations of those countries can’t afford the goods you’re making.

US is responsible for 25% of the world's GDP, meaning everything else is 75% of the world's GDP. My point is I wouldn't be too quick to assume the US can throw its weight around and get everything it wants all the time. Much of what it wants? Probably, but not everything. Certainly, not without potential consequences.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I've said numerous times:
Educate more engineers, scientists and business people. Focus on the future and high margin productivity.
Tax payer supported projects such as the Chips and Science Act. Imperative!
Fair Trade Agreements.
Targeted tariffs where appropriate.

I believe in free trade agreements, balanced trade policies, and subsidies for domestic producers. Realize trade goals without imposing taxes on imports or exports. Free trade agreements can reduce trade barriers by negotiating lower tariffs. Balanced trade focuses on achieving a more even exchange of goods between countries

The erratic, often confusing, rollout of tariffs has hit countries ranging from our largest trading partners; Canada, Mexico and China. The result has been unprecedented market volatility and serious damage to investor trust in US assets.

You need to be building things in order to require engineers. I also assume you knew we already graduate a lot of engineers, but they don't find work in their field. Its estimated 75% of graduate engineers do not find work in the field they studied, so why graduate more? https://interestingengineering.com/...ates-actually-work-in-their-respective-fields

You know as well as I do that the US owned IC manufacturing, amongst other things, 30 years ago, but the CEO's and our leaders sold us out. So if we had the cash we could maybe go bribe those same people to on-shore jobs. Or we could just tell them its going to cost more to manufacture off shore? How is this not the same net affect?

I think fair trade was the idea. Fair trade would predicate a reasonably balanced trade volume between partners, or at least a group of partners, not a forever deficit.

As for the implementation, that is a different topic that we cannot discuss here anyway.

 

[GON]

US is responsible for 25% of the world's GDP, meaning everything else is 75% of the world's GDP. My point is I wouldn't be too quick to assume the US can throw its weight around and get everything it wants all the time. Much of what it wants? Probably, but not everything. Certainly, not without potential consequences.

Albeit I am OCONUS, I haven't read a single article, that after peeling back the onion, the US is throwing any weight around. What I conclude is the US can't afford to be a patsy any longer.

Decades of massive trade deficits, monster federal debt, monster federal deficit. U.S. needs to be lean and efficient if it has any hope to prevent a financial collapse, and maintain a certain standard of living.

 

[loneryder]

I have personal experience w/ two small businesses affected by the proposed and shifting tariffs, one affected directly and one indirectly. Both are having to shift their operations and may even have to reduce staff; one gearing up for significantly higher cost of goods that must be passed on to consumers leading to reduced sales as well as their customers' decrease in disposable income (overall costs and decline in equities) and the other having to find new customers (intentionally try to limit customer base to assure service excellency) again due to anticipated business decrease. End result is that both businesses may reduce their own spending and may reduce staff leading to the severed employees spending less in their communities, on and on.... I also heard about an IPO and potential acquisitions being tabled due to the market volatility. Postponing an IPO is gruesomely costly as is the lessened availability within the capital markets.

This tariff turmoil is very real, costly, hurts all consumers and will be very damaging if allowed to continue...

As far as decoupling from China, that low cost manufacturing helped drive our economic boom and if we don't utilize it, someone else surely will. Addressing supply chain concentration in China needs to be done, but they should and will always play a part in our economy....we just need to leverage that as appropriate.

The Wall Street Journal has had the best coverage of the current situation.

I'm sorry but the WSJ has been printing nothing but fear porn about tariffs. Nothing but. If that's all you read then that's the reason you posted what you did.

 

[loneryder]

Friend has been long haul trucker for some 25+ yrs. He not long ago changed companies and it was because the trucks his company had were mostly Mack and Volvo. They were fairly newer (2020+) trucks and he was always complaining about the truck breaking down and losing driving hours. Lot of what he complained about was the telemetry and electronics. Like one time he called to say he was stuck at the scales because of telemetry issues between the truck and the scales.

There are lots of Volvos on the road.

 

[GON]

I'm sorry but the WSJ has been printing nothing but fear porn about tariffs. Nothing but. If that's all you read then that's the reason you posted what you did.

For some reason, not a single article, or video on a show like 60 minutes, how tariffs were key in the rebuilding Japan and Korea after the economies lost so much manufacturing capabilities due to war, countries were deep in debt, etc .

Both Japan and Korea are massive exporters of manufactured goods today, and exports of some of the most advanced manufactured products. Both countries have trade surpluses.

It might be worth asking, why is this story not being told? To much short term profit by importing Chinese products, and borrowing from the Chinese to pay for the products?

Borrowing from Chinese peasants and the like is no way to have a long term economic boom. We all can live a very good life in the short term living off of credit cards. At some point the credit card company wants it's money, and if they don't get their money they jack up the interest rate, and refuse to loan the borrower any more money.

 

[wings&wheels]

I'm sorry but the WSJ has been printing nothing but fear porn about tariffs. Nothing but. If that's all you read then that's the reason you posted what you did.

Yeah, maybe that. Well that plus undergrad and some grad work in Economics, ~25 yrs in leadership growing what became a Fortune 200 global business, followed by an exec position reporting to the CEO of a startup (that we grew from ~$40 to-~$140m annual revenue) w/ >50% of its revenue from global markets and a global supplier base... At one point, very early on, I had two Licensed Customs Brokers working for me and actually knew how to use the Harmonized Tarriff Schedule. Maybe it is because I actually know the subject area having studied it and lived it in the global business world for the better part of my life.

That being said I am always open to learning, but first, your qualifications?

 

[Owen Lucas]

You really believe this? Huh....

That's my surface level understanding of it.

I certainly don't believe this admin is going into this blindly and just tariffing everyone for pure economic reasons / tit-for-tat. That's just slurping the MSM kool-aid. Making it seem that way is an easy way to appeal to voters though.

When you get into the weeds of how individual tariffs on certain items can change a countries tune and shape the political landscape, most people's eyes will glaze over and they don't care either.

Many countries are already blinking and indeed complying or at least giving us better deals. I think the end game is more than just economic, its a power play across continents with Ukraine, Russia, and China as focal points surrounding future and current conflicts. Basically asymmetric warfare. Most likely a lot more going on behind the scenes, we'll see what happens.

The admin already knew this was coming as everyone else has predicted, stating "there will be pain", I hope it's for good reason and we can ride it out.

 

[JeffKeryk]

You need to be building things in order to require engineers. I also assume you knew we already graduate a lot of engineers, but they don't find work in their field. Its estimated 75% of graduate engineers do not find work in the field they studied, so why graduate more? https://interestingengineering.com/...ates-actually-work-in-their-respective-fields

You know as well as I do that the US owned IC manufacturing, amongst other things, 30 years ago, but the CEO's and our leaders sold us out. So if we had the cash we could maybe go bribe those same people to on-shore jobs. Or we could just tell them its going to cost more to manufacture off shore? How is this not the same net affect?

I think fair trade was the idea. Fair trade would predicate a reasonably balanced trade volume between partners, or at least a group of partners, not a forever deficit.

As for the implementation, that is a different topic that we cannot discuss here anyway.

Come to Silicon Valley. You will see the most diverse population anywhere. We import so much talent. We need more. And you know what a giant Silicon Valley and CA is in the world economy.

Yes, high tech was exported. Lotsa reasons for that. But going back does not solve today. The Chips and Science Act does. The biggest obstacle TSMC AZ is dealing with is the severe lack of local talent.

And no, fair trade is not the idea of world wide tariffs. If it is, it is sure making a mess of a great economy.

You asked me to answer your question; I did with sound, long lasting solutions.

 

[scoot]

Can't be #1 economy with a third world education system .

 

[JeffKeryk]

Can't be #1 economy with a third world education system .

Not sure of your point, but the US is the world's #1 economy. Education is generally good but there is regional funding disparity especially at the formative K12 level.
In CA, the incredible community colleges offer free tuition and generate a lot of talent. And the low cost (if you can call it that) UC system is world standard.

The CA economy speaks for itself.

 

[Rmay635703]

That's my surface level understanding of it.

I certainly don't believe this admin is going into this blindly and just tariffing everyone for pure economic reasons / tit-for-tat. That's just slurping the MSM kool-aid. Making it seem that way is an easy way to appeal to voters though.

When you get into the weeds of how individual tariffs on certain items can change a countries tune and shape the political landscape, most people's eyes will glaze over and they don't care either.

Many countries are already blinking and indeed complying or at least giving us better deals. I think the end game is more than just economic, its a power play across continents with Ukraine, Russia, and China as focal points surrounding future and current conflicts. Basically asymmetric warfare. Most likely a lot more going on behind the scenes, we'll see what happens.

The admin already knew this was coming as everyone else has predicted, stating "there will be pain", I hope it's for good reason and we can ride it out.

That’s a ret-conned narrative.

the man behind the curtain on the tarriff policies had public facing junk science to justify how tarriffs would improve the economy. That may be a smoke show though about the true purpose.

The reality is that 2020 appears to be repeating as the $6T dollar shadow bank bailout of 2020, looks like it’s on the dock to happen a 2nd time in 2025 as blackrock and related companies tentacles expand.

Many small businesses that previously had fully US sourced supplies are being forced to outsource to China at high cost due to bankruptcies of local suppliers that are either just going under or altering what they sell. The best example are businesses that are consumers of custom glass which is nearly impossible to source domestically this year as fallout continues to spread. (More and more us suppliers of raw materials are going under because they can’t source key materials to refine and process )

California already has empty shelves and shortages as deliveries to the port get interrupted mid stream. These shortages will spread.
IThen you have the blockcade of cars interfering with port operations on both sides of the ocean causing artificial shortages as tarriff details are causing missing paperwork and chaos/confusion

 

[GON]

Then you have the blockcade of cars interfering with port operations on both sides of the ocean causing artificial shortages as tarriff details are causing missing paperwork and chaos/confusion

Are you suggesting GM will be facing car shortages for USA sales as GM imports some of its vehicles from China?

Easy fix- GM can run second and third shifts at its USA assembly plants, to make up for the loss of vehicles GM imports from China.

Too easy....

 

[Rmay635703]

I’m

Are you suggesting GM will be facing car shortages for USA sales as GM imports some of its vehicles from China?

Easy fix- GM can run second and third shifts at its USA assembly plants, to make up for the loss of vehicles GM imports from China.

Too easy....

nope, Toyota, Honda and Eurozone vehicles are being held hostage at ports both foreign and domestic. We can’t sell/export ours and they can’t sell/export theirs.

This is part of the reason why Toyota and Honda only have a few days of inventory in country, it appears we are getting written off with only very few vehicles going in stock to avoid any costs.

These dead vehicles some of which have been stuck at port a month are blocking incoming and outgoing goods from being loaded / unloaded and likely driving up costs to buyers at the dealership

 

[JeffKeryk]

The great misconception is that those numbers matter.

They don’t.

Population doesn’t buy things. Money does.

More than a billion of those people get by on less than a dollar a day. Nobody is selling to that demographic.

Look at per capita GDP to know what potential sales look like to the consumers in a country.

Based on GDP and income, the US remains an important, if not the most important, market for goods and services.

Much like the “194” countries. That number doesn’t matter, either, when the populations of those countries can’t afford the goods you’re making.

As the loyal voice of opposition, I disagree. As you posted, poor countries are not going to be large consumers or exporters.

However, the poor countries economic well being is linked to global stability, peace vs war, and resource management. Many poor countries possess valuable natural resources. There is so much more...

You and others may disagree with my point of view, and that's fair. The numbers matter.

 

[Rmay635703]

As the loyal voice of opposition, I disagree. As you posted, poor countries are not going to be large consumers or exporters.

However, the poor countries economic well-being is linked to global stability, peace, and resource management. Many poor countries possess valuable natural resources. There is so much more...

You and others may disagree with my point of view, and that's fair. The numbers matter.

They matter which is why the elimination of USAID, will likely decimate raw material supply chains
but the engine of the world economy runs on volume and dollars, small potatoes and low profit ventures alone will collapse everyone including us.

Having an incomplete supply chain whether it be the poor raw material suppliers missing , the middle men who process and fab missing or our end of value add missing will result in market failures

 

[JeffKeryk]

That's my surface level understanding of it.

I certainly don't believe this admin is going into this blindly and just tariffing everyone for pure economic reasons / tit-for-tat. That's just slurping the MSM kool-aid. Making it seem that way is an easy way to appeal to voters though.

When you get into the weeds of how individual tariffs on certain items can change a countries tune and shape the political landscape, most people's eyes will glaze over and they don't care either.

Many countries are already blinking and indeed complying or at least giving us better deals. I think the end game is more than just economic, its a power play across continents with Ukraine, Russia, and China as focal points surrounding future and current conflicts. Basically asymmetric warfare. Most likely a lot more going on behind the scenes, we'll see what happens.

The admin already knew this was coming as everyone else has predicted, stating "there will be pain", I hope it's for good reason and we can ride it out.

Respectfully, there is little evidence of the things in your post. Quite the opposite. If it were happening, why the erratic tariffs strategy?
We are seeing reciprical tariffs and corporation strategy changes.