Mack Truck laying off 100s in PA & MD
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4WD
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We continue to push education including trades and higher education, which is needed much more for the service-based economy that we already have with a sizable service trade-surplus, and we stop advocating that we dumb-down America by demonizing higher education and trying to repatriate low paying manufacturing jobs that require no skill. SOME of the manufacturing jobs maybe well paying and make sense to repatriate but there is no reality where the US repatriates every single sector of manufacturing to fulfill our current and future demand. So for every success story of manufacturing coming back to the US, there will be 10x the number of examples that don't and we all just pay more for these products with associates drag on our economy. We will even pay more the manufacturing jobs that return - the best example was the steel tariffs from T1 which were good for a few thousand workers in American steel production but sucked for everyone who paid more for anything made with US steel. We don't even have the population of available workers to repatriate a fraction of manufacturing.
Tariffs make sense when used sparingly and surgically, it makes no sense to use them how they are currently being used.
"Machine operator is someone that stands in front a machine and presses buttons and loads / unloads bins. Its the lowest level person that actually makes something. If you want someone to pick a box up and set it down, that pays less. If you want someone to assemble something by hand, thats a tough skill and pays more.
Machine operator in the USA pays about $20-25 / hour. The issue isn't paying them, its getting them to show up.
https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/machine-operator/china
The "sweet spot" is usually about 85-90% capacity utilization. 100% isn't technically max, but you can't run at max all the time because something always breaks down - so 85% is the sort of the coasting down the highway level. China has been below 75% for a while and decreasing. US is actually a little higher currently, although I saw something the other day that says US Auto production is like 60%. I get all kinds of paid for data my bass passes along - but its all behind a paywall. This is a start:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1229726/china-quarterly-industrial-capacity-utilization-rate/
Were not going to make our own shoelaces, no. We need to compress our $1T trade deficit or go broke. That is why we focus on Mexico, Canada, and China - because they account for most of it. If that means we buy $500T less blue tooth speakers and plastic dog toys, and sell $500B more soy beans and airplanes, fine by me. Otherwise we go broke. Trust me, the later is much worse.
My guess is it will fail either way - because we have no spine. Everyone wants to just get free stuff and sit at home. I hope to be surprised, but I doubt I will be.
Wondering how you find the time to work on patients with that size of a office ? I'm guessing you personally don't have a patient in the chair all day long ? It's not easy delivering the bad news for employees ever .
I have a partner and we share the administrative load and we get stuff done between patients - I see just as many patients per day as everyone else.
I've said numerous times:
Educate more engineers, scientists and business people. Focus on the future and high margin productivity.
Tax payer supported projects such as the Chips and Science Act. Imperative!
Fair Trade Agreements.
Targeted tariffs where appropriate.
I believe in free trade agreements, balanced trade policies, and subsidies for domestic producers. Realize trade goals without imposing taxes on imports or exports. Free trade agreements can reduce trade barriers by negotiating lower tariffs. Balanced trade focuses on achieving a more even exchange of goods between countries
The erratic, often confusing, rollout of tariffs has hit countries ranging from our largest trading partners; Canada, Mexico and China. The result has been unprecedented market volatility and serious damage to investor trust in US assets.
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Except trade wars result in things like 12,000 metric tons of US pork imports being cancelled by China - gains in one area of manufacturing just result in lower imports somewhere else. This is why it needs to be planned and strategic and well executed and not the poop show we currently have.
Exactly...it's not necessarily what but how it's being done. It seems haphazard because it is and all that chaos makes the few good ideas that are inherently embedded in the basic concepts of tariffs impossible to implement with a desired result. In the meantime, we are not achieving any measurable goals other than destroying our reputation.
Left and right? Some companies will be in a position to move or expand manufacturing in the US but MANY will not. Also, don't assume investment in the US being motivated by the currently environment will be good for you. You only need to look at steel and aluminum tariffs from a few years ago which yes, gave a boom to US steel and aluminum production. Yes, if you were a steel or aluminum worker or executive is was good for you. However, it resulted in the cost of steel and aluminum going up for every product that used steel and aluminum and you and I paid that difference. They actual numbers for increase in steel/aluminum revenue vs increased cost to the general public show it was widely unsuccessful and it cost us more than we gained.
Look, the free-"ish" market has already determined the most efficient means of production to give the lowest price with in the context of current rules/laws/agreements. We now have artificial government manipulation pushing production away from most efficient means to some goal set by the government, repatriation of manufacturing. This will still result in increased prices. If the goal of tariff is renegotiate trade-deals, then ok, but it has been stated over and over the goal is to repatriate manufacturing. Which one is it?
Lastly, once the price of stuff goes up due to tariffs for a period of time, it rarely if ever comes back down to baseline even if the tariffs are completely removed. Even if some of the objectives are eventually met through generalized tariffs, the idea that all of that increases in cost will go away is not supported by mountains of data from past tariffs. If something cost $10 before a tariffs, $15 dollars during a tariff, and inflation-adjusted it should cost $11 after removing the tariff, it almost always will cost $12 because the psychology of the market will accept $12 and therefore companies will sell it for $12.
This is to say tariffs increases costs through multiple ways and I've never seen any data to even suggest costs ever return to even inflation-adjusted baselines.
4WD
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Chaos was the open border just now shut down …
You guys raided a Mack thread with a bunch of rants that are not Mack’s problem as I posted a half dozen links to …
The subtitle of the article in the OP says it was due to tariffs and we aren't supposed to then talk about tariffs? Please, get over yourself man, they are pertinent to the specific discussion of Mack trucks even if someone of it are thoughts and ideas you don't agree with or want to hear.
4WD
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It’s his excuse and you happen to like it for obvious reasons.
However, I made many posts about Mack’s decline - starting with my 25 year comment …
Ok, but you don't get to micromanage the direction of the discussion. No one took over the thread and the discussions have all been pertinent to the article. Maybe not what you wanted to talk about, but obviously we did want to talk about it. Also, I did address you went I stated (somewhere) that even if Mack was in decline, tariffs aren't helping. Reference my culling comment.
I am not sure this thread is about open borders.
Please let me know what new auto plant you are talking about. I seriously doubt the decision to build a new plant was based on the new global tariffs.
My point is, and stands, that Subaru is switching some Canadian deliveries from US plants to Japan due to tariffs. The move will result in lower cost to Subarus sold in Canada, and a net loss to the US manufacturing business.
Hyundai is expected to move some Canada supply from the US to its Mexico plant.
My point is simply the global tariffs, especially as erratic as they are, will greatly disrupt the global supply chain. This is exactly what post #1 speaks to.
What is your point about the new plant? I am open to your information and opinion.
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4WD
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You guys did - not me. And I sure don’t buy the timing from when this CEO used his excuse …
Owen Lucas
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I see this as a short term geo-political play that isn't just focused on US manufacturing and economy. Telegraphing this as a trade imbalance makes it much more appealing to Americans which mostly have no clue or care about what's going on in the rest of the world.
The EU will learn their lesson and start to seriously finance the problems in their own backyard after we soften tariffs.
Russia and China will destabilize and scramble for solutions at our mercy which will involve prioritizing US interests.
I'll wager that we get back to normal and the stock market will hit ATH by fall.
The global tariffs will have long term detrimental effects. The rollout was has been marred by delays and reversals. The latest announcements have ignited an international response, worldwide markets tumbling and increasing the risk of a global recession.
The tariffs have increased economic policy uncertainty, which generally depresses economic activity by prompting firms and households to postpone investment, hiring, and consumption decisions.
I am an economic and financial conservative. I take no joy in these comments.
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