Mack Truck laying off 100s in PA & MD

[SC Maintenance]

Yes. but big business has more room to adjust by cutting product lines and layoffs, while small business gets hit harder. They just might be outta business.

Take a smaller US exporter. We export so much to our top trading partners, Mexico and Canada. We are choking off small business exporters in the immeadiate and short term; perhaps beyond. Their costs go up and their revenue goes down. And remember, small business runs on credit. Cash flow is only everything.

Small business in actually making goods has long since been run out on a rail by the globalists. Most small business are services

There are very few small manufacturers, farmers, or even importers - there large global corporations. I won't say there are none, but there are few.

I live in this world. 20 years ago there were still some small manufacturers around making things. They call got bought up. Look no further than the oil filter market. Wix, Purolator, Fram. They weren't really small, but they were not huge and they were still privately owned. All bought up by big global auto parts companies or VC's.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Mack is a canary in the coal mine. The shipping business is going to get a lot smaller. There are many reasons.

• The excess of pandemic money printing is over. Everyone is broke.
• A lot of people bought Chinese junk to fill their new houses they bought during the boom. The houses are full, and no one is moving.
• Most wealth is held by the aging. They will be spending more on services going forward - they have enough things.

Thats even before anything to do with on-shoring meaning shorter supply chains.

Also a lot of the anticipated truck replacement had to do with enviro rules - like California, which has our largest ports - was planning on forbidding trucks older than 2010 to even enter the state. No Chinese freight, no need to go to California, no need to upgrade the truck.

The other truck companies would be wise to take heed.

 

[Foreman04]

“Shipping” dropped off a lot comparing the last week of March to the first week of April when tariffs hit. I personally saw business very good in January and February but totally flattened out in March. When I speak to customers about it, they are saying they’re being very cautious because of the uncertainty of the economy with tariffs. Container bookings have collapsed, ports are seeing reduced activity, trucking is decelerating so the next few weeks are going to be very telling.

 

[SC Maintenance]

“Shipping” dropped off a lot comparing the last week of March to the first week of April when tariffs hit. I personally saw business very good in January and February but totally flattened out in March. When I speak to customers about it, they are saying they’re being very cautious because of the uncertainty of the economy with tariffs. Container bookings have collapsed, ports are seeing reduced activity, trucking is decelerating so the next few weeks are going to be very telling.

Did you see a lot of front running before - ie people loading inventory up on goods before the anticipated tariff's?

 

[GON]

I have had a CDL

Mack is a canary in the coal mine. The shipping business is going to get a lot smaller. There are many reasons.

• The excess of pandemic money printing is over. Everyone is broke.
• A lot of people bought Chinese junk to fill their new houses they bought during the boom. The houses are full, and no one is moving.
• Most wealth is held by the aging. They will be spending more on services going forward - they have enough things.

Thats even before anything to do with on-shoring meaning shorter supply chains.

Also a lot of the anticipated truck replacement had to do with enviro rules - like California, which has our largest ports - was planning on forbidding trucks older than 2010 to even enter the state. No Chinese freight, no need to go to California, no need to upgrade the truck.

The other truck companies would be wise to take heed.

For the last 15 years, I have held and maintained a CDL A license. When I thought I was retiring, my next chapter included a possible COA of independent truck driver. I love driving, and love americana.

I have the ability to buy a new tractor for cash. When I ran the numbers, even with a brand new tractor fully paid for, I couldn't find a solution to make a profit as a independent owner/ operator.

Trucking is a brutal business. For a few independent truckers with dedicated freight, they do ok. Most truckers would make more at Wendy's or McDonald's. Of course, working for Walmart or UPS is a different situation, a nice compensation plan.

 

[Foreman04]

Did you see a lot of front running before - ie people loading inventory up on goods before the anticipated tariff's?

Yes, there was definitely some preordering. LA ports saw the decline in trucking first and starting to show up nationally too. Some retailers are saying store shelves will be empty in a few weeks.

 

[alarmguy]

Everyone in the world wants well priced products.
There is no free market. Tariffs, regulations, etc are not part of a free market. Tariffs are a tax on the consumer.
@GON has a point about CEOs minimizing cost via cheaper imports. But the same is true about exports; CEOs will maximize profit and minimize cost where possible. CEOs are beholden to the shareholders, not a country. In the case of Walmart, they jumped into the tariff "discussion" because they are the biggest employer in our nation and so many people depend on their low prices. Cripple Wally World and you cripple the US.

exactly and why we need to take a stand against other countries tariffs on our products

You can’t cripple Walmart they will always be the price leader

 

[PWMDMD]

Long haul truckers crisscrossing the USA have said the economy has been slowing down for the past 2 years.

They see every region of the country and every industry.
What does ‘Bob The Long Haul Trucker’ say about this economy ?

I follow a few OTR truckers on YouTube and they say things have been slowing down for a while.

FedEx, DHL and UPS saying global economy and shipping is trending downward….
FedEx, DHL and UPS closing warehouses / sorting facilities before these recent trade tariffs
Both companies offering pilot early retirement packages to trim pilot staffing.

What do CB talking, gear shifting, jake braking truckers know about the economy that the MBAs from degree mills like Princeton, Harvard, Yale, Duke, Georgetown, Carnegie, Stanford, Columbia, Wharton don’t know….?????

They don’t teach this stuff at fancy universities….. long haul truckers at Flying J talk about it and our economy.

Copper demand used for manufacturing is down.

Cardboard box demand is down.

Ok...but tariffs certainly aren't helping here either and they may very well be the last straw for many companies.

 

[GON]

Ok...but tariffs certainly aren't helping here either and they may very well be the last straw for many companies.

Better to be the last straw for a handful of for profit corporations than the financial collapse of the USA.

Those corporations at risk becuase of tariffs should have mitigated the risk years ago by offering domestically produced products for the USA consumers.

 

[doitmyself]

Since we continue off-topic on tariffs vs. Mack truck demise................... can anyone answer this simple question: Last week I purchased an in-stock French-made chemical injector ($750) from it's Florida distributor and a 5% tariff was applied. If in-stock before the tariffs were started, shouldn't it be tariff free? Shouldn't the tariffs be applied to post-tariff delivered stock?

 

[PWMDMD]

Better to be the last straw for a handful of for profit corporations than the financial collapse of the USA.

Those corporations at risk becuase of tariffs should have mitigated the risk years ago by offering domestically produced products for the USA consumers.

Savage!

So tariffs are good as some method of culling US businesses? What about small businesses who are less sophisticated and were doing fine and could have never anticipated this but were otherwise doing reasonable well but will be devastated by tariffs? Too bad so sad? What about corporations who will survive but will have to greatly reduce staff?

Since neither of us are wizards who can predict the future, statistically some of these companies will have inevitably been able to weather their current storm and improve their positions had it not been for the tariffs.

 

[Pew]

Step 1: Move manufacturing out of country and collect the profits

Step 2: wait until there's nobody who knows how to run the equipment

Step 3: introduce tariffs across everything and make everyone suffer

Step 4: wait until the other countries decide to not sell to USA

 

[PWMDMD]

Since we continue off-topic on tariffs vs. Mack truck demise................... can anyone answer this simple question: Last week I purchased an in-stock French-made chemical injector ($750) from it's Florida distributor and a 5% tariff was applied. If in-stock before the tariffs were started, shouldn't it be tariff free? Shouldn't the tariffs be applied to post-tariff delivered stock?

Some companies are absorbing the tariffs if they are small. Some companies are doing their best to do this by immediately increasing the price of products by say 2.5% across the board to distribute the 5% tariff across both non-tariffed products (in-stock) and tariffed products (not in stock).

 

[PWMDMD]

Step 1: Move manufacturing out of country and collect the profits

Step 2: wait until there's nobody who knows how to run the equipment

Step 3: introduce tariffs across everything and make everyone suffer

Step 4: wait until the other countries decide to not sell to USA

Comment on Step 2 - The only reason to move manufacturing abroad is it's cheaper. These manufacturing jobs usually require very little skill and training, one of the major reasons why they can be offshored to countries with little education. The issue isn't we can't train Americans to make widgets, the problem is Americans won't do it for $2.00/hr, and if companies have to pay $16.00/hr, they can't sell that widget for what we currently pay for it.

 

[scoot]

Step 1: Move manufacturing out of country and collect the profits

Step 2: wait until there's nobody who knows how to run the equipment

Step 3: introduce tariffs across everything and make everyone suffer

Step 4: wait until the other countries decide to not sell to USA

Step 4 isn't possible , Americans love buying junk . Chinese people can't afford to buy stuff and they haven't the space to put it . Where are they going to sell their products if not America ?

 

[Pew]

Comment on Step 2 - The only reason to move manufacturing abroad is it's cheaper. These manufacturing jobs usually require very little skill and training, one of the major reasons why they can be offshored to countries with little education. The issue isn't we can't train Americans to make widgets, the problem is Americans won't do it for $2.00/hr, and if companies have to pay $16.00/hr, they can't sell that widget for what we currently pay for it.

True, step 2 applies moreso to 'high-tech' manufacturing like semi conductors.

My company purchases a lot of cheap things from China; stuff like plastic bottles, bags, and other simple, disposable, non-sterile lab stuff. There's no reason, for us, to purchase these things are a higher cost, otherwise our <5% profit margin gets destroyed and the additional costs eventually gets pushed to the consumer anyways.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Since we continue off-topic on tariffs vs. Mack truck demise................... can anyone answer this simple question: Last week I purchased an in-stock French-made chemical injector ($750) from it's Florida distributor and a 5% tariff was applied. If in-stock before the tariffs were started, shouldn't it be tariff free? Shouldn't the tariffs be applied to post-tariff delivered stock?

Margin improvement.

Just like when you say hurricane on the coast all the gas stations raise there price by a buck.

 

[Pew]

Step 4 isn't possible , Americans love buying junk . Chinese people can't afford to buy stuff and they haven't the space to put it . Where are they going to sell their products if not America ?

There's 194 other countries. They can decide who to sell to other than us. Sure it may hurt them a little bit but not as much as us once they decide to stop shipping critical items like medicine to us before we can even get our own foot on the ground.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Comment on Step 2 - The only reason to move manufacturing abroad is it's cheaper. These manufacturing jobs usually require very little skill and training, one of the major reasons why they can be offshored to countries with little education. The issue isn't we can't train Americans to make widgets, the problem is Americans won't do it for $2.00/hr, and if companies have to pay $16.00/hr, they can't sell that widget for what we currently pay for it.

Chinese industrial labor is about $8 per hour. That’s general average not specialty labor.

The big savings is no payroll tax and lack of any enviro rules or benefits.

Mexico is cheaper again BTW

 

[GON]

What about small businesses who are less sophisticated and were doing fine and could have never anticipated this but were otherwise doing reasonable well but will be devastated by tariffs?

Nobody is more saavy than small business. The question to ask is what regulations or barriers to entry had government imposed on small businesses.... that tie the hands behind the backs of small business, and insist on free market for small and all business.