Jackson_Slugger
$50 Site Donor 2022
I know these are hard to really divine the tealeaves months ahead, but this seems to correspond with the European Model:
Long Range Winter Forecast 2022-2023
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These forecast are not far from worthless in my opinion.
I have been using the GFS, NAM forecast models for 19 plus years.
And even at day 6-10 it's not all that super accurate in terms of sensible weather. And day 8-14 it's even less accurate in terms of sensible weather.
Now the longwave upper level air pattern those time frames the models are fairly accurate with that. I will say that.
However it is the timing of cold fronts passing, how strong the high pressure systems are, upper level troughs that create lower level atmospheric cyclogenesis... All of those factors make what happens as far as sensible weather that is actually observed. And those differences can and often times are HUGE...
Take for example the big and I mean extremely strong 2018 east coast snowstorm... A perfect timing of extremely cold Arctic air, a very, very vigorous and strong upper level trough coning down the jetstream from the northwest and diving at a very steep angle southeastward and a corresponding surface low pressure system forming in the SOUTHERN Bahamas in which the upper level low caught up to the surface low pressure and caused " bombogenesis" aka extremely rapid intensification of that storm and then that storm moved almost due northward to create one of the strongest coastal storms in the last 25 years.
I have never, ever seen a east coast snowstorm take shape that extremely far south. The closest was the right before Christmas1989 Cape Hatteras and Wilmington NC snowstorm. Which formed after a massive Arctic high pressure center had moved eastward. That storm did not go up the east coast but it did form extremely far south in the middle of Florida. Has it moved northeast it gained strength and dropped a staggering 16 inches of snow in Wilmington NC and 12-14 inches in Cape Hatteras. This was the biggest snowstorm recorded to hit Cape Hatteras.
I don't pay hardly any attention to seasonal forecast. For good reason.
I have been using the GFS, NAM forecast models for 19 plus years.
And even at day 6-10 it's not all that super accurate in terms of sensible weather. And day 8-14 it's even less accurate in terms of sensible weather.
Now the longwave upper level air pattern those time frames the models are fairly accurate with that. I will say that.
However it is the timing of cold fronts passing, how strong the high pressure systems are, upper level troughs that create lower level atmospheric cyclogenesis... All of those factors make what happens as far as sensible weather that is actually observed. And those differences can and often times are HUGE...
Take for example the big and I mean extremely strong 2018 east coast snowstorm... A perfect timing of extremely cold Arctic air, a very, very vigorous and strong upper level trough coning down the jetstream from the northwest and diving at a very steep angle southeastward and a corresponding surface low pressure system forming in the SOUTHERN Bahamas in which the upper level low caught up to the surface low pressure and caused " bombogenesis" aka extremely rapid intensification of that storm and then that storm moved almost due northward to create one of the strongest coastal storms in the last 25 years.
I have never, ever seen a east coast snowstorm take shape that extremely far south. The closest was the right before Christmas1989 Cape Hatteras and Wilmington NC snowstorm. Which formed after a massive Arctic high pressure center had moved eastward. That storm did not go up the east coast but it did form extremely far south in the middle of Florida. Has it moved northeast it gained strength and dropped a staggering 16 inches of snow in Wilmington NC and 12-14 inches in Cape Hatteras. This was the biggest snowstorm recorded to hit Cape Hatteras.
I don't pay hardly any attention to seasonal forecast. For good reason.
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