Investors....come in please!

[Drew99GT]

Originally Posted By: gfh77665
When is this dang thing gonna correct?? A 10% to 20% pullback would be healthy. This party can't go on much longer!


Why??? There have been a few other periods in market history when it went up thousands of percent without "pullbacks" of 10-20%. I'd say it's a sign of an even healthier stronger market!

This party CAN go on for years. You can't fight it, all you can do is ride it. That's why dollar cost averaging fo0r long term savers is so beneficial because you won't be sitting on the sidelines waiting for your pullback while you get steamrolled over.

 

[Vuflanovsky]

While I think this market is suspect, I wouldn't be waiting for a 10%-20% pullback to enter and chase returns...I'd be doing DCA with occasional lump sums if my time window was 10-12 years. If Bogle and others are correct about the next decade having 4% nominal returns for stocks, I would stay invested and invest regularly.

If there's a coming deceleration in earnings due to things like slowing population growth and profit margins returning to historical levels, it might be a very different market in ten years time where you'll wish you stayed in versus expecting major drops and historical returns afterward. I've got 12 years before I retire and while I don't know if that prognostication is correct or not, it definitely colors my thinking to some degree.

 

[Mr Nice]

Originally Posted By: turtlevette
I converted everything to bonds yesterday. Thinking about easing into some short etfs.


Just wondering how old are you ?

Why not 60% bonds and 40% SP500 etf ?

 

[turtlevette]

Long etfs. When I think things are gonna go down? Short etfs would be the way to go.

Bonds are just a way to park money temporarily.

I don't know how much people know about this. You can go short, double short, or triple short.

Or the same kind of thing long as well.

 

[Warstud]

It's almost time to short oil again. Do you guys see the pattern?

 

[turtlevette]

Well I dumped all my bonds because of what Greenspan said the other day.

I bought some limited positions in tecs,qid,dxd,sqqq

If it opens up big on Monday going to get more. If its down big dump everything.

 

[turtlevette]

I messed myself up on Tuesday. I started going short after that downward spike right on open. Then shorted more on wed. Then shorted more on Thurs.

The marked just rocked up and up, pretending like that 90 point NASDAQ dump didn't happen.

I'm holding a massive short position going into Tuesday. So I have 3 days for people to get nervous.

This stuff ain't nothing short of gambling.

 

[Warstud]

Originally Posted By: turtlevette
I messed myself up on Tuesday.


I got a Buy signal on the $NDX on Tuesday.

 

[turtlevette]

Originally Posted By: Warstud
Originally Posted By: turtlevette
I messed myself up on Tuesday.


I got a Buy signal on the $NDX on Tues

8895-11793-chart.png[/img]


Was that at the end of the day?

I'm running on pure intuition. What is that charting software? I used to use tc2000. I'd like to have something that'll run on an android tablet

Do you think downward fears are behind us. In my opinion, things are so overbought someone could yell boo and we could lose 200+ points.

 

[Warstud]

Yes....end of day 6:00 P.M.....Charts are free from http://stockcharts.com

 

[Pablo]

Never, ever short a confirmed uptrend market. Even when under pressure. Wait until the downtrend is confirmed.

I am making healthy money. I may sell some more utilities. Heck even UTG is up 30%

 

[Mr Nice]

Originally Posted By: turtlevette
Originally Posted By: Warstud
Originally Posted By: turtlevette
I messed myself up on Tuesday.


I got a Buy signal on the $NDX on Tues

8895-11793-chart.png[/img]


Was that at the end of the day?

I'm running on pure intuition. What is that charting software? I used to use tc2000. I'd like to have something that'll run on an android tablet

Do you think downward fears are behind us. In my opinion, things are so overbought someone could yell boo and we could lose 200+ points.


Are you making money shorting stocks ?

 

[turtlevette]

Originally Posted By: Mr Nice
Originally Posted By: turtlevette
Originally Posted By: Warstud
Originally Posted By: turtlevette
I messed myself up on Tuesday.


I got a Buy signal on the $NDX on Tues

8895-11793-chart.png[/img]


Was that at the end of the day?

I'm running on pure intuition. What is that charting software? I used to use tc2000. I'd like to have something that'll run on an android tablet

Do you think downward fears are behind us. In my opinion, things are so overbought someone could yell boo and we could lose 200+ points.


Are you making money shorting stocks ?



I was up 7% when I started in early August. I'm not just shorting and not directly shorting stocks. I buy tqqq 3x Nasdaq etf long right after a big down move. Then when it moves up big sell and immediately buy sqqq 3x NASDAQ etf short. It's almost like day trading. I will ho!d positions as long as several days

On Tue, wed Thurs, I gave back that 7%.

I'm going to disagree with Pablo. You want to go short now. My mistake was starting too early. The next time a missile is fired the markets could dump 5% in minutes. Then it's too late. Or a lot of other things could happen with an unpredictable leader.

 

[Pablo]

Originally Posted By: turtlevette


I'm going to disagree with Pablo. You want to go short now. My mistake was starting too early. The next time a missile is fired the markets could dump 5% in minutes. Then it's too late. Or a lot of other things could happen with an unpredictable leader.


Key word is could.

Listen, I'm not going to tell you what to do (yeah I know I wrote "never never" above

) - I just don't like fighting the statistics or the crowd. When the crowd is going one way, and mostly always goes one way, I don't fight upstream. I haven't even summed everything up lately, but I was up 20%+ ---- I've bought two cars and I'm still way ahead of were I was at the end of June (6 months). I did one in and out with a short S&P 500 fund, so I am not necessarily anti-short. I know the market is still generally bullish. It will become bearish at some point, I agree it always does and I will short it, but that ends and the market marches up again.

 

[Drew99GT]

Originally Posted By: turtlevette
I messed myself up on Tuesday. I started going short after that downward spike right on open. Then shorted more on wed. Then shorted more on Thurs.

The marked just rocked up and up, pretending like that 90 point NASDAQ dump didn't happen.

I'm holding a massive short position going into Tuesday. So I have 3 days for people to get nervous.

This stuff ain't nothing short of gambling.



It's people shorting the market massively in an uptrend which gives the uptrend strength as buy stops from short positions are triggered.

I've personally never successfully made any money trying to short the stock market. I'd never do it with retirement money, but just play money. It seems to always rip my face off the other way like this week! Unless we're going into a secular bear market multi year downtrend, once you get any kind of confirmation there's a pullback, it's already done and the buyers have stepped in and the shorts get squeezed. People always hate on the ability for market participants to short stocks, but that ability is what adds strength/demand to the markets.

 

[Drew99GT]

Anyone watching gold??? The long term downtrend resistance line has been broken to the upside, price is above all major moving averages, and those averages are positive. Plus some fundamentals for gold are looking positive like falling real interest rates. Inflation is picking up while the Fed is still ho hum on raising rates.

I bought a small position in IAU and will add some if the trend holds and continues up.

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted By: turtlevette
I was up 7% when I started in early August. I'm not just shorting and not directly shorting stocks. I buy tqqq 3x Nasdaq etf long right after a big down move. Then when it moves up big sell and immediately buy sqqq 3x NASDAQ etf short. It's almost like day trading. I will ho!d positions as long as several days

On Tue, wed Thurs, I gave back that 7%.

I'm going to disagree with Pablo. You want to go short now. My mistake was starting too early. The next time a missile is fired the markets could dump 5% in minutes. Then it's too late. Or a lot of other things could happen with an unpredictable leader.


Hmm... I'm at a new high. Although a missile was recently fired and they did a bomb test. But maybe things will calm down by Tuesday.

 

[oilpsi2high]

The only "stock" I own that's down right now is USO.

 

[Pablo]

Originally Posted By: Wolf359
Originally Posted By: turtlevette
I was up 7% when I started in early August. I'm not just shorting and not directly shorting stocks. I buy tqqq 3x Nasdaq etf long right after a big down move. Then when it moves up big sell and immediately buy sqqq 3x NASDAQ etf short. It's almost like day trading. I will ho!d positions as long as several days

On Tue, wed Thurs, I gave back that 7%.

I'm going to disagree with Pablo. You want to go short now. My mistake was starting too early. The next time a missile is fired the markets could dump 5% in minutes. Then it's too late. Or a lot of other things could happen with an unpredictable leader.


Hmm... I'm at a new high. Although a missile was recently fired and they did a bomb test. But maybe things will calm down by Tuesday.



Market is still in a confirmed uptrend. Period. Healthy sell off Tues. Yes fright. By COB Wed, am decently above where I started Tuesday AM. I rarely short the market as a whole. And when I do the market is a confirmed downtrend. You can't play with this junk, you will get burned.

 

[Warstud]

Originally Posted By: Pablo
Market is still in a confirmed uptrend. Period. Healthy sell off Tues. Yes fright. By COB Wed, am decently above where I started Tuesday AM. I rarely short the market as a whole. And when I do the market is a confirmed downtrend. You can't play with this junk, you will get burned.


Good Advice....I wouldn't short the Indexes yet either. Maybe a weak Sector. I'm waiting for a setup on the Semiconductors (SOXS) to short. It's a cyclical business.