Investors....come in please!
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Hey thanks guys,
Just a note of interest, that sorta' hit me as odd.
See how we've been holding very near the intraday futures lows of last week and just under last Monday's closing low?
I have to admit this I've not seen for several years. Usually when we get hit with noise like we just did we'll drop 3-5% instead of 2 or so.
Now, this doesn't mean to load the boat. Oh heck no not by any means.
There's still 2 ways to play this. Nibble and see what happens or sit around for the confirmation wave or the big signal.
But,,,,,, I'm getting some preliminary numbers that our 1235-ish or the very low 1200s might give us one heck of a bottom signal.
1250-1253 or right in there is also looking like something when I do the math but it wouldn't give a bottom signal from I'm seeing as of 12:30.
Now one final thing.
If anyone's buying anything today, I'd not buy into any group or fund that has extreme trading restrictions or an early redemption fee. There's a chance we could stay in this sideways theme or something close to it, which we've been in for 2 months now until midyear maybe even July or Aug. if we bottom this week.
If you recall when we made the Jan. bottom shortly after I was looking for a leap frog or sideways market for several months. Don't remember just how I said it back then on this site.
I'm shooting from the hip on this and on the fly and would need to see the low plus at least a months action there after but the odds appear high right now.
An April low might remove most of this sideways theme.
Time for lunch
Just a note of interest, that sorta' hit me as odd.
See how we've been holding very near the intraday futures lows of last week and just under last Monday's closing low?
I have to admit this I've not seen for several years. Usually when we get hit with noise like we just did we'll drop 3-5% instead of 2 or so.
Now, this doesn't mean to load the boat. Oh heck no not by any means.
There's still 2 ways to play this. Nibble and see what happens or sit around for the confirmation wave or the big signal.
But,,,,,, I'm getting some preliminary numbers that our 1235-ish or the very low 1200s might give us one heck of a bottom signal.
1250-1253 or right in there is also looking like something when I do the math but it wouldn't give a bottom signal from I'm seeing as of 12:30.
Now one final thing.
If anyone's buying anything today, I'd not buy into any group or fund that has extreme trading restrictions or an early redemption fee. There's a chance we could stay in this sideways theme or something close to it, which we've been in for 2 months now until midyear maybe even July or Aug. if we bottom this week.
If you recall when we made the Jan. bottom shortly after I was looking for a leap frog or sideways market for several months. Don't remember just how I said it back then on this site.
I'm shooting from the hip on this and on the fly and would need to see the low plus at least a months action there after but the odds appear high right now.
An April low might remove most of this sideways theme.
Time for lunch
Thanks again. Many kudos. I'm really listening to you when you say noise...short term noise.
125X holds strong.
I must admit I did a little bit of nibbling today. PFO. HJS. Just bargain junk.
125X holds strong.
I must admit I did a little bit of nibbling today. PFO. HJS. Just bargain junk.
If today was the low, 1256 for the S/T there's an outside chance we might have seen the low for the year, which is probably the most outlandish outlook anyone has. But that's why they call me the Lone Wolf.
I'm still keying off the March 8 cycle, which allowed some bleed over into early this week. Until I see something different I'm sticking to the pattern.
I'd love to see the lips get riped off the bulls for a few days but I don't think it's there.
We'll know in a few days but I'm still buying all dips for now. I may never get to a full leveraged holding and if not I'll just have to live with it.
I'm still keying off the March 8 cycle, which allowed some bleed over into early this week. Until I see something different I'm sticking to the pattern.
I'd love to see the lips get riped off the bulls for a few days but I don't think it's there.
We'll know in a few days but I'm still buying all dips for now. I may never get to a full leveraged holding and if not I'll just have to live with it.
Originally Posted By: Pablo
Thanks again. Many kudos. I'm really listening to you when you say noise...short term noise.
125X holds strong.
I must admit I did a little bit of nibbling today. PFO. HJS. Just bargain junk.
Watch what happens tomorrow. I'll be out of the room all day but if we get a fast retreat around 2;30 we're probably heading down.
Thanks again. Many kudos. I'm really listening to you when you say noise...short term noise.
125X holds strong.
I must admit I did a little bit of nibbling today. PFO. HJS. Just bargain junk.
Watch what happens tomorrow. I'll be out of the room all day but if we get a fast retreat around 2;30 we're probably heading down.
Hope no one was still holding shorts.
When I went in on Fri. with my 50% or so buy it was felt a confirmation wave wasn't needed. Yesterdays addition was just the icing on the cake.
Now, if we're flat to up tomorrow I'll be pulling back to my core and see how the next 2 weeks go.
I've already taken a couple of my futures contracts back as I'm not going to be around much tomorrow.
chow
When I went in on Fri. with my 50% or so buy it was felt a confirmation wave wasn't needed. Yesterdays addition was just the icing on the cake.
Now, if we're flat to up tomorrow I'll be pulling back to my core and see how the next 2 weeks go.
I've already taken a couple of my futures contracts back as I'm not going to be around much tomorrow.
chow
I have one tiny short position. Cost me all of about $200 today.
OTOH my long 2X (ultra) ETF's were up numbers followed by 4 zeros today....
OTOH my long 2X (ultra) ETF's were up numbers followed by 4 zeros today....
I'm still sitting on my wallet. Not ready to commit to a new course of action.
Playing lightly. Need a confirmation.
If PFO pops over $10 and EFL pops $12.25 - I'm in the clover. Honey.
Had a few min.
Joe has been shorting the living snot out of this all day. He says we're going down for my final splash, I hope so because he has my day account so short right now I can't see over my boot tops.
Unless the close goes completey in the tank I'm just going to cash with my EOD stuff. I see an either or S/T wave formation that I don't have time to check out.
chow
Joe has been shorting the living snot out of this all day. He says we're going down for my final splash, I hope so because he has my day account so short right now I can't see over my boot tops.
Unless the close goes completey in the tank I'm just going to cash with my EOD stuff. I see an either or S/T wave formation that I don't have time to check out.
chow
Ok all right now, I see all those itchy trigger fingers. As if you haven’t had enough punishment since last Oct. so now you want more? Give it a couple more weeks then you might be able to have some real fun for a while instead of these fast trades.
Sorry for the confusion earlier. Joe is probably the best day trader out there and without question my equal with VST trades. It’s the other stuff I usually win. However, having a chance to run the evening rack I’m not so sure Joe was wrong. Looks like I owe Joe a beer for what he did in my day and futures accounts.
Yesterday I made one of the biggest mistakes in my life. Anyone remember what I said about 10 days ago regarding the next 2 weeks? I said that due to this week being a short week to expect expansion and contractions to be very fast. Yup, but where I screwed up yesterday was in forgetting the market ends the week tomorrow not Fri. DUH
Well, I hope everyone followed my lead of selling some of my intraday stuff last night.
What we have here is possibly a consolidation from yesterdays big run up. A 50% retrace was not a surprise but I was looking at that for tomorrow not today. Again, DUH!
We had this goofy pattern that was looking up next week and it still might happen. But first 1293 comes into play. 1295 would be preferred. Anything below that then we might get my big splash. There is one caveat in that we could get an intraday spike to around 1280 and reverse.
It’s also very possible that we’re entering my big sideways call, which has been on my table for some time to develop since the Jan. lows if you recall. It doesn’t fit exactly just yet but there are a few things that suggest it.
One S/T wave pattern that’s developing is we might see an intraday high tomorrow. If we do and we close down we should continue down into early next week. That would freak everyone out.
Anyway, note per the general market we again pulled back into what was expected to be near a cycle low point. The epicenter is next Tues. but I did expect it to hit on the early side. How much longer they’ll hit I’m unsure of. The next hits are in late March and early April but if this weird pattern plays out we’ll just have to continue being patient.
The one thing we do not want is for a low in the next 1-3 days to be followed by a good rally without a bottom signal. Even a low later next week followed by a rally might not be the greatest thing either.
There are a lot of issues in the rack that says things are getting near a solid buy for more than a couple days but that April cycle bothers me. I also think the confirmation wave is off the table but I am still watching.
Ya ya ya I can the finger nails clicking on those triggers.
Here are the 2 options that make the most sense.
So far the low points seem to be coming into play. Further downside the next 1-3 days would be another clue things are on track, so far anyway.
If we were to reverse within 3-5 trading days the odds are we might get back to 1350 and simply come back down again. If this pattern plays out we'll see a lower low this summer. Even if we got a bottom signal in the next few days the pattern still calls for a sideways to lower market into summer.
If we continue down into April those 1160-1220 prints might be seen. That could setup a 4-8 week rally.
I prefer an early April splash but I’ll take what is offered and am aware of all options.
We just need the setup and a little patience.
Sorry for the confusion earlier. Joe is probably the best day trader out there and without question my equal with VST trades. It’s the other stuff I usually win. However, having a chance to run the evening rack I’m not so sure Joe was wrong. Looks like I owe Joe a beer for what he did in my day and futures accounts.
Yesterday I made one of the biggest mistakes in my life. Anyone remember what I said about 10 days ago regarding the next 2 weeks? I said that due to this week being a short week to expect expansion and contractions to be very fast. Yup, but where I screwed up yesterday was in forgetting the market ends the week tomorrow not Fri. DUH
Well, I hope everyone followed my lead of selling some of my intraday stuff last night.
What we have here is possibly a consolidation from yesterdays big run up. A 50% retrace was not a surprise but I was looking at that for tomorrow not today. Again, DUH!
We had this goofy pattern that was looking up next week and it still might happen. But first 1293 comes into play. 1295 would be preferred. Anything below that then we might get my big splash. There is one caveat in that we could get an intraday spike to around 1280 and reverse.
It’s also very possible that we’re entering my big sideways call, which has been on my table for some time to develop since the Jan. lows if you recall. It doesn’t fit exactly just yet but there are a few things that suggest it.
One S/T wave pattern that’s developing is we might see an intraday high tomorrow. If we do and we close down we should continue down into early next week. That would freak everyone out.
Anyway, note per the general market we again pulled back into what was expected to be near a cycle low point. The epicenter is next Tues. but I did expect it to hit on the early side. How much longer they’ll hit I’m unsure of. The next hits are in late March and early April but if this weird pattern plays out we’ll just have to continue being patient.
The one thing we do not want is for a low in the next 1-3 days to be followed by a good rally without a bottom signal. Even a low later next week followed by a rally might not be the greatest thing either.
There are a lot of issues in the rack that says things are getting near a solid buy for more than a couple days but that April cycle bothers me. I also think the confirmation wave is off the table but I am still watching.
Ya ya ya I can the finger nails clicking on those triggers.
Here are the 2 options that make the most sense.
So far the low points seem to be coming into play. Further downside the next 1-3 days would be another clue things are on track, so far anyway.
If we were to reverse within 3-5 trading days the odds are we might get back to 1350 and simply come back down again. If this pattern plays out we'll see a lower low this summer. Even if we got a bottom signal in the next few days the pattern still calls for a sideways to lower market into summer.
If we continue down into April those 1160-1220 prints might be seen. That could setup a 4-8 week rally.
I prefer an early April splash but I’ll take what is offered and am aware of all options.
We just need the setup and a little patience.
Oil is down, market is up. Another head fake?
Originally Posted By: cmhj
If anyone's buying anything today, I'd not buy into any group or fund that has extreme trading restrictions or an early redemption fee.
Remember this from Mon.?
I also said on Mon. we have this goofy pattern where we might overall run up into later next week.
The wave structure is changing almost day by day. Right now I'm looking up and will add a couple more melons in my EOD stuff if we don't get a big ramp into the close. I'll add if we hold under oh let's say 1310.
If anyone's buying anything today, I'd not buy into any group or fund that has extreme trading restrictions or an early redemption fee.
Remember this from Mon.?
I also said on Mon. we have this goofy pattern where we might overall run up into later next week.
The wave structure is changing almost day by day. Right now I'm looking up and will add a couple more melons in my EOD stuff if we don't get a big ramp into the close. I'll add if we hold under oh let's say 1310.
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