*Investors Blog*

[SC Maintenance]

So yesterday the 10 year popped 10 bps on a few words from the fed chair. Thats a big move for talk.

Meanwhile the yen continues selling off.

Is it 2024 again?

 

[Zee09]

So yesterday the 10 year popped 10 bps on a few words from the fed chair. Thats a big move for talk.

Meanwhile the yen continues selling off.

Is it 2024 again?

Was Amsoil high in 2024 too????

 

[Pablo]

Was Amsoil high in 2024 too????

Can someone just report you and be done? I don't block people.

 

[Zee09]

Can someone just report you and be done? I don't block people.

Don't be testy .....

 

[Pablo]

Don't be testy .....

Constant truce violations are becoming irksome.

 

[mjk1967]

If the debt is used to fund profitable activities, but none of the hyperscalers are showing a profit on there AI investments thus far. Was also justification for very high multiples - no debt to drag on earnings. So that is gone.

The cash flow had been used historically to buy back stock, which it now isn't. That is already showing up in the stock price.

Predicting the future is hard so I could certainly be wrong, but all the nonsense about how profitable and earnings is all whitewash. Its a spec play in hopes it will be profitable at some future point.

Apple licensing Gemini, vs doing it in-house, may prove to be a smart move.

 

[gfh77665]

Jeremy Grantham recently said that we are in a historic bubble led by AI. For us mean reverting value players that means something.

Incidentally this was in my inbox July 4th morning. Thought you might be interested.

https://www.morningstar.com/podcast...0BCE5DC390117C4424033D54EA78930A943F8DA9FE7A3

 

[SC Maintenance]

What surprises me is inflation break evens are higher than ever, yet no one is buying them.

If there is ever a correction there will be a lot of retirees left hanging out. Fine for someone like me to lose half. If you already retired I am completely unsure why anyone would not take at least some of the sure thing at this point.

 

[JeffKeryk]

What surprises me is inflation break evens are higher than ever, yet no one is buying them.

If there is ever a correction there will be a lot of retirees left hanging out. Fine for someone like me to lose half. If you already retired I am completely unsure why anyone would not take at least some of the sure thing at this point.

Well, a balanced portfolio provides insurance against downturns, right? That's a key reason a paid off house was a priority. Homelessness will do that to ya.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Well, a balanced portfolio provides insurance against downturns, right? That's a key reason a paid off house was a priority. Homelessness will do that to ya.

Well, not sure what you mean by balanced. I wouldn't include things like your primary residence as part of your portolio since as you mentioned, you have to live somewhere.

What we have seen lately likely due to fiscal dominance is both bonds and stocks trading in the same direction. Developing market investors are very familiar with this phenomenon. So its entirely possible if not likely in a sell off that the traditional 60/40 portfolio would sell off together - and we saw that as recently as what - 2022, albeit short lived.

Not saying there will be a sell off, but given people's time horizon it seems many are willfully ignoring the possibility.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Well, not sure what you mean by balanced. I wouldn't include things like your primary residence as part of your portolio since as you mentioned, you have to live somewhere.

What we have seen lately likely due to fiscal dominance is both bonds and stocks trading in the same direction. Developing market investors are very familiar with this phenomenon. So its entirely possible if not likely in a sell off that the traditional 60/40 portfolio would sell off together - and we saw that as recently as what - 2022, albeit short lived.

Not saying there will be a sell off, but given people's time horizon it seems many are willfully ignoring the possibility.

Good point. I always include housing in my portfolio. One, as you say, you need a place to hang your hat. Two, housing offers investment opportunities.

As for stocks and bonds, I have a baseline conservative portfolio portion as a "just in case". Being homeless will do that to you. During a downturn years back, I rented 2 rooms out and even let 2 others sleep on the floor. Win-win-win-win-win. Housing is an incredible asset.

And no one sez you can only have 1 property...

 

[SC Maintenance]

Good point. I always include housing in my portfolio. One, you need a place to hang your hat. Two, housing offers investment opportunities.

As for stocks and bonds, I have a baseline conservative portfolio portion as a "just in case". Being homeless will do that to you. During a downturn years back, I rented 2 rooms out and even let 2 others sleep on the floor. Housing is an incredible asset.

I am in no way saying its not a good asset. However the only way to monetize it is to do what you did - ie rent out rooms. Most would prefer not to do that. Things would have to get much worse around here before anyone I would want in my house would want to rent a room. I imagine where you live housing is so much more expensive its different.

My goal is to have a home (ie no rent payment) and enough income from assets to live. Even me at my age - that way if I am unemployed for whatever reason then I am in no particular bind.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I am in no way saying its not a good asset. However the only way to monetize it is to do what you did - ie rent out rooms. Most would prefer not to do that. Things would have to get much worse around here before anyone I would want in my house would want to rent a room. I imagine where you live housing is so much more expensive its different.

My goal is to have a home (ie no rent payment) and enough income from assets to live. Even me at my age - that way if I am unemployed for whatever reason then I am in no particular bind.

Perhaps I miss led you; I only rented out rooms during a downturn, and that was to more to help others than for my benefit.
Yes, housing is generally pretty expensive around here. And keeps going up. That's why I made it a priority to pay off my home; the impossible dream.

I am financially Uber conservative. In my methodology, that means alternatives, back up, and "what if" after "what if".

 

[SC Maintenance]

Perhaps I miss led you; I only rented out rooms during a downturn, and that was to more to help others than for my benefit.
Yes, housing is generally pretty expensive around here. And keeps going up. That's why I made it a priority to pay off my home; the impossible dream.

I am financially Uber conservative. In my methodology, that means alternatives, back up, and "what if" after "what if".

Yes I agree. Hence back to my point - I am surprised TIPS are not more popular among pensioners.

 

[bovine1]

Incidentally this was in my inbox July 4th morning. Thought you might be interested.

https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view/jeremy-grantham-almost-everything-looks-more-attractive-than-us-equity-market?utm_source=eloqua&utm_source=feedotter&utm_medium=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=SmartInvestor&utm_campaign=FO-07-02-2026&utm_content=None_75708&utm_content=[[post.post_url]]&utm_id=39580&elqTrackId=9733b01c466f46dda1af8d2957b68354&elq=fb7c0be67db548ce921923f9a7242e86&elqaid=75708&elqat=1&elqCampaignId=39580&elqak=8AF501CAEBF99D707FB9BF50BCE5DC390117C4424033D54EA78930A943F8DA9FE7A3

I did see that. He is bullish emerging stocks. He has been for several years. It's interesting because they have to be somewhat invested at all times and he does have a bearish view still GMO's stock funds have done well according to Morningstar. 4 stars except for Class 1 which is 3. 125 million dollar minimum investment though so I'm out.