*Investors Blog*

[Zee09]

Very strange. Never owned it - not a huge fan of mid-stream but If I want to hide out there I have a couple fav's - not MPLX.

There current Beta is well below 1. Seems like a lousy stock to day trade in general?

I don’t use tools like you do.
I do nothing but watch and learn patterns of a stock and look at the daily spread. It's mostly instinct...

Yeah you can get caught once in awhile but I just wait it out or engineer an escape route or muscle my way out with shares...
Basic trading that's all.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Was talking to my friend David at a local Costco this morning. He's a top employee, been there since 2003. He told me management has asked employees to shorten their work week by about 4 hours. 1st time he's ever been asked that.

He also told me prices have never been like this.

Of course David is a Cowgirls fan, so there's that.

 

[Owen Lucas]

He also told me prices have never been like this.

Prices, as in higher or lower than before?

 

[SC Maintenance]

Was talking to my friend David at a local Costco this morning. He's a top employee, been there since 2003. He told me management has asked employees to shorten their work week by about 4 hours. 1st time he's ever been asked that.

He also told me prices have never been like this.

Of course David is a Cowgirls fan, so there's that.

Also interested in the prices part?

Not sure how to interpret the cowgirls fan comment. Maybe I don't need to know.

Hours worked is another item tracked by the fed, and the recestionista's have been hammering on the falling work week hours for a couple years. It will need to matter eventually I suppose.

 

[Mechanician]

With the shutdown, what government agency is putting out their guesses?

There is the Cardboard Box index to fall back on - last month down 5% for the year.
https://www.mondayeconomist.com/p/cardboard-box-index

 

[JeffKeryk]

Prices, as in higher or lower than before?

@Owen Lucas and @SC Maintenance
Prices are at all time highs. Did you really have to ask?

David and I joke about our respective football teams. He wears Cowboy jerseys this time of year; of course Silicon Valley favors a lotta red. All in good fun. David has so many customer friends; he's a great guy and an asset to Costco.

 

[Owen Lucas]

Prices are at all time highs. Did you really have to ask?

Yes, I did, I thought maybe there's some anomaly. If Costco is having a reduction in floor traffic, that's a bad sign!

 

[SC Maintenance]

@Owen Lucas and @SC Maintenance
Prices are at all time highs. Did you really have to ask?

David and I joke about our respective football teams.

I wasn't sure if their was more to the context - given prices have been going up and continue to go up.

Didn't think football teams. I am a big fan of real cowgirls. Football in general, not as much.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Yes, I did, I thought maybe there's some anomaly. If Costco is having a reduction in floor traffic, that's a bad sign!

Exactly my point. And here in Silicon Valley speaks even louder. And Christmas Season is approaching...
His words stopped me in my tracks.

It's not so much the floor traffic. He said the crowds are still pretty much there, but their dollar buys less. Costco can pass on only so much cost increase to the customer. Management has to cut costs elsewhere.

 

[Dave Hess]

With the shutdown, what government agency is putting out their guesses?

There is the Cardboard Box index to fall back on - last month down 5% for the year.
https://www.mondayeconomist.com/p/cardboard-box-index

I follow the trucking industry and what long haul truckers are saying about our economy / slowdown.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I find the on-the-ground economic data as good as anything. You just have to keep it in context - its one little piece of data.

For example manufacturing has been in recession for years. But not every sector of manufacturing. Strong and weak sectors - which is actually different from the last 20 years - its usually boom or bust across the board.

And remind myself that markets (stock and bond) and economy are not necessarily corelated - in the short run.

 

[JeffKeryk]

And remind myself that markets (stock and bond) and economy are not necessarily corelated - in the short run.

Only the top wealth percentages really benefit from the stock markets.

Currently something like the top 10% of Americans own 90% to 93% of the U.S. stock market's wealth; a record high.
The top 1% own about 54% of all stock market wealth.
The bottom 50% of American households own only a tiny fraction, about 1%.

Financial stability is an incredible feeling, but it is reserved to a fortunate few. That's the numbers.

I find this scary.

 

[Sj08]

Only the top wealth percentages really benefit from the stock markets.

Currently something like the top 10% of Americans own 90% to 93% of the U.S. stock market's wealth; a record high.
The top1% own about 54% of all stock market wealth.
The bottom 50% of American households own only a tiny fraction, about 1%.

Financial stability is an incredible feeling, but it is reserved to a fortunate few. That's the numbers.

I find this scary.

Interesting stats, the numbers look similar to who pays income taxes.

 

[Astro14]

Only the top wealth percentages really benefit from the stock markets.

Currently something like the top 10% of Americans own 90% to 93% of the U.S. stock market's wealth; a record high.
The top1% own about 54% of all stock market wealth.
The bottom 50% of American households own only a tiny fraction, about 1%.

Financial stability is an incredible feeling, but it is reserved to a fortunate few. That's the numbers.

I find this scary.

Perhaps- but the shift may already be coming.

Gen Z owns stocks in much greater proportion, at younger ages, than previous generations. They’re choosing the market over home-buying.

https://www.wsj.com/personal-financ...f89ad?st=hEoaFi&reflink=article_copyURL_share

 

[ZeeOSix]

I follow the trucking industry and what long haul truckers are saying about our economy / slowdown.

And what's the latest word from the trucking companies?

 

[ZeeOSix]

Exactly my point. And here in Silicon Valley speaks even louder. And Christmas Season is approaching...

The whole holiday spending scenario will be interesting and telling, and based on what's been going on I don't expect any record setting spending this year.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Perhaps- but the shift may already be coming.

Gen Z owns stocks in much greater proportion, at younger ages, than previous generations. They’re choosing the market over home-buying.

https://www.wsj.com/personal-financ...f89ad?st=hEoaFi&reflink=article_copyURL_share

I think the article is saying the shift depends, to a large extent, on what the buyer can afford which is largely dictated by costs.
Regardless, I am encouraged by young investors. Or any investors...

But my post's point is the stock market wealth is in the hands of very few. Beyond that, that market value is skewed by the top companies, and that means tech. And to a large extent means AI.

Uncharted waters. Just my 2 cents.

 

[ZeeOSix]

I think the article is saying the shift depends, to a large extent, on what the buyer can afford which is largely dictated by costs.

And to buy you need money and disposable cash to become any type of serious investor, so only the Gen Zers that have good jobs and make a decent amount of money would fit that metric.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I think the article is saying the shift depends, to a large extent, on what the buyer can afford which is largely dictated by costs.
Regardless, I am encouraged by young investors. Or any investors...

But my post's point is the stock market wealth is in the hands of very few. Beyond that, that market value is skewed by the top companies, and that means tech. And to a large extent means AI.

Uncharted waters. Just my 2 cents.

Silicon valley has been shedding jobs aggressively for a couple years. I wonder if the lack of Costco traffic near you is a function of big tech companies replacing (or attempting to replace) mid level white collar jobs with AI. It would only make sense that they would be the first. And AI only makes financial sense if it can replace workers, otherwise its simply a neat toy.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Silicon valley has been shedding jobs aggressively for a couple years. I wonder if the lack of Costco traffic near you is a function of big tech companies replacing (or attempting to replace) mid level white collar jobs with AI. It would only make sense that they would be the first. And AI only makes financial sense if it can replace workers, otherwise its simply a neat toy.

There is no lack of customer traffic. The Costco business costs are up and they can only pass on so much of that to the customers via price hikes. They have to find other ways to cut their cost of doing business. Payroll is always a target, like most business.

Check your Siicon Valley job market. High Tech is always a roller coaster, but this is where the opportunity is.