*Investors Blog*
- Thread starter Warstud
- Start date
Bring home the groceries!
JHZR2
Staff member
Specific bonds or a bond fund?
I’ve never looked into buying specific bonds to sell at a profit, just funds…
Since the books were cooked by ^this^, the economy was far weaker than everyone thought during the previous administration. Therefore there is more room for improvement than was previously thought, and more upward revisions are possible now.
Im not disagreeing however the two are running very close at this point. I do wonder if a rate cut will come next week. Inflation higher than their goal met with a softer job market but not all that soft. Anyway, I dont think there is anyway to predict the market reaction either way, at least in my mind. Im not talking the day I am talking the reaction over a week or two.
Some people in here will read this post that payrolls were down during those 12 months. That is not so (for those who do not know)
It just means payroll numbers were way wrong by around 50%. However payrolls still grew every month during those 12 months by 71,000 jobs each month its just that they were reported to be growing at 147,000
The economy in my option is far from shambles, its why the Fed raised rates to being with. To slow things down, this might be a good indication that they can ease up on the tightening. August 2025 there seems to be good reason for them to do so as the market cools/cooled. Assuming those numbers are correct
Agree though I guess you posted it more eloquently
Yeah, my train of thought is the same. However I wonder how the market will react. Sometimes on announcements it does not behave like I think.
Example, the market maybe being held up because of the anticipation of a rate cut. Then once it is cut the big guys sell off and take profits while the public holds the bag or not. Because then the next excuse is fear of recession sometimes.
Like you say, all time highs, I cant help wonder if I will regret not selling before the announcement though the companies I own are pretty much bullet proof for my spec Roth they are not bullet proof in my 401 which is just index funds.
Strange times for real, soooooo many variables with the stuff coming out of Washington and so much of it, untested policies.
The QCEW (the basis for -911K revision) only was an update only until March 2025 for the year before. QCEW is an actual report from 12M businesses that report employee numbers - by law - so they can withhold payroll taxes properly, and it lags by 6 months.
The monthly job report is nothing more than a survey, based on a model that has clearly been broken for years - and known to be broken for years see post 7708. No one serious has paid attention to it for at least a couple years.
So any "revisions" you get in the next few months, for the last few months, is just more tweaks to the model that may or may not be correct. Although I am sure whatever political faction they benefit will espouse them as gospel whichever the case. Don't be fooled (either way)
We won't get another QCEW until December 3rd, and that will cover April, May June 2025.
Funds.
Core bonds:
https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/etfs/qm-us-bond-etf.html
Munis:
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset...nfBOhQb2_IFSQPgbEvjd7CoqGyTY6NM0aAphgEALw_wcB
FYI, much of my portfolio is managed by the Schwab Wealth Advisory. I would never be able to understand the plethora of investment products out there. This rebalance from equity to bonds was one of their recommendations from our recent meeting.
I also have a stake in a CA Muni bond fund, which is double tax free. In my case, this helps with my tax burden but may not be for everyone.
Pablo money right thereI was looking for something new today. Looked at the spread and found CTMX i usually avoid those stocks... it was a snore...bought it at $2.05 and it bored me so in 20 minutes I unloaded it on 2 cents
Was good for $400.... may go back not sure...
The quants are still trying to figure out where they went wrong...I was looking for something new today. Looked at the spread and found CTMX i usually avoid those stocks... it was a snore...bought it at $2.05 and it bored me so in 20 minutes I unloaded it on 2 cents
Was good for $400.... may go back not sure...
Quite a day for AI stocks... Don't ask me how I know. My best single day ever?
Your tax filings must be a joy to complete.I was looking for something new today. Looked at the spread and found CTMX i usually avoid those stocks... it was a snore...bought it at $2.05 and it bored me so in 20 minutes I unloaded it on 2 cents
Was good for $400.... may go back not sure...
- Joined
- May 5, 2018
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Robinhood makes it easy...
My best month was 740 flips
It about drove me nuts....no more of that...
I bought TMF near the low.
Economic ruin. Economy falling. Have lots of money on the side,Just hit an all time high today.
Very easy $$$$$
What what?!
Were the Muppets.
